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Lightning at Capitals
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Washington Capitals

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸5
Washington Capitals
4
Final/OTTV NBCSN·Capital One Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Washington Capitals 5-4 in overtime, Victor Hedman scoring at 3:01. The lead changed hands 3 times. The Lightning led 4-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Victor Hedman's goal at 3:01 of overtime, which took the Lightning's chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Capitals, 4.7 to 2.5; shots on goal were TBL 28, WSH 58. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Capitals win a replay of these chances 81% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 54 of 58 (.931), 0.7 goals saved above expected; Braden Holtby stopped 23 of 28 (.821), 2.5 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Steven Stamkos (1 G, 2 A), 2. Nikita Kucherov (2 G), 3. Evgeny Kuznetsov (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    S. Stamkos1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    TBL
    N. Kucherov2 G
  3. ★★★
    WSH
    E. Kuznetsov1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
TBLTBL0541101012528
WSHWSH11522211902458

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. WSH
    L. Eller(12)
    C. Hagelin (11)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +13 pts
    0-1
    7:32

2nd period

  1. TBL
    N. Kucherov(36)PPG
    S. Stamkos (47), V. Hedman (38)
    snapxG 0.08win prob +15 pts
    1-1
    1:19
  2. TBL
    S. Stamkos(37)PPG
    J. Miller (27)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +12 pts
    2-1
    2:12
  3. TBL
    A. Cirelli(16)
    M. Joseph (11)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +17 pts
    3-1
    6:45
  4. WSH
    C. Hagelin(5)
    L. Eller (23)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +17 pts
    3-2
    10:30
  5. WSH
    T. Oshie(22)PPG
    A. Ovechkin (35), J. Carlson (53)
    wristxG 0.26win prob +18 pts
    3-3
    13:40
  6. TBL
    N. Kucherov(37)PPG
    S. Stamkos (48), O. Palat (24)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +18 pts
    4-3
    15:01

3rd period

  1. WSH
    E. Kuznetsov(20)
    N. Backstrom (51), T. Oshie (25)
    snapxG 0.13win prob +46 pts
    4-4
    19:07

Overtime

  1. TBL
    V. Hedman(11)
    Y. Gourde (24)
    backhandxG 0.18win prob +51 pts
    5-4
    3:01

Penalties

TBL 21 PIM·WSH 15 PIM

1st

  • 9:30TBLSteven Stamkos · Holdingdrawn by Jakub Vrana2 min
  • 16:26TBLJan Rutta · Trippingdrawn by Brett Connolly2 min
  • 19:27WSHTom Wilson · Holdingdrawn by Victor Hedman2 min

2nd

  • 2:08WSHAlex Ovechkin · Elbowingdrawn by Ryan McDonagh2 min
  • 12:00TBLMikhail Sergachev · Slashingdrawn by Brett Connolly2 min
  • 14:06WSHDmitry Orlov · Slashingdrawn by Tyler Johnson2 min
  • 15:42WSHMichal Kempny · High stickingdrawn by Cedric Paquette2 min
  • 15:42TBLCedric Paquette · Cross checkingdrawn by Michal Kempny2 min
  • 15:42TBLCedric Paquette · Roughingdrawn by Michal Kempny2 min
  • 15:42WSHJakub Vrana · Fightingdrawn by Yanni Gourde5 min
  • 15:42TBLYanni Gourde · Fightingdrawn by Jakub Vrana5 min
  • 15:42TBLMikhail Sergachev · Roughingdrawn by T.J. Oshie2 min
  • 15:42WSHT.J. Oshie · Roughingdrawn by Mikhail Sergachev2 min

3rd

  • 1:24TBLOndrej Palat · Slashingdrawn by Alex Ovechkin2 min
  • 10:13TBLBrayden Point · Slashingdrawn by Jakub Vrana2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
WSH goalTBL goalFinal: WSH 0%

Biggest swing: Victor Hedman, OT 3:01 — TBL 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
T. Oshie · Goal · xG 0.26L. Eller · Missed · xG 0.18T. Wilson · Missed · xG 0.17E. Kuznetsov · On goal · xG 0.17A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.16T. Oshie · On goal · xG 0.14A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.13A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.13E. Kuznetsov · Goal · xG 0.13T. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.12E. Kuznetsov · On goal · xG 0.12A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.12E. Kuznetsov · On goal · xG 0.11M. Kempny · On goal · xG 0.11T. Oshie · On goal · xG 0.11E. Kuznetsov · On goal · xG 0.10E. Kuznetsov · On goal · xG 0.10L. Eller · Goal · xG 0.10L. Eller · On goal · xG 0.10C. Hagelin · On goal · xG 0.09T. Oshie · Missed · xG 0.09T. Oshie · Missed · xG 0.08A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.08N. Backstrom · On goal · xG 0.08T. Oshie · On goal · xG 0.08E. Kuznetsov · On goal · xG 0.08E. Kuznetsov · On goal · xG 0.08T. Oshie · On goal · xG 0.08N. Backstrom · On goal · xG 0.07A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.07N. Jensen · On goal · xG 0.07M. Niskanen · On goal · xG 0.07A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.06C. Hagelin · Goal · xG 0.06A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.06L. Eller · On goal · xG 0.06B. Connolly · On goal · xG 0.05E. Kuznetsov · On goal · xG 0.05J. Carlson · Missed · xG 0.05A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.05L. Eller · On goal · xG 0.05B. Connolly · On goal · xG 0.04N. Backstrom · On goal · xG 0.04J. Carlson · On goal · xG 0.04T. Oshie · Missed · xG 0.04N. Backstrom · Missed · xG 0.04A. Ovechkin · Missed · xG 0.04J. Carlson · On goal · xG 0.04M. Niskanen · On goal · xG 0.04M. Niskanen · On goal · xG 0.03A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.03M. Kempny · Missed · xG 0.03E. Kuznetsov · Missed · xG 0.03J. Carlson · On goal · xG 0.02D. Orlov · On goal · xG 0.02N. Jensen · On goal · xG 0.02D. Orlov · Missed · xG 0.02J. Carlson · On goal · xG 0.02J. Carlson · Missed · xG 0.02D. Orlov · Missed · xG 0.02J. Vrana · On goal · xG 0.01M. Kempny · On goal · xG 0.01E. Kuznetsov · Missed · xG 0.01M. Niskanen · On goal · xG 0.01M. Niskanen · On goal · xG 0.01B. Orpik · On goal · xG 0.01M. Niskanen · On goal · xG 0.00D. Orlov · On goal · xG 0.00A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.00C. Hagelin · On goal · xG 0.00M. Niskanen · On goal · xG 0.00C. Hagelin · On goal · xG 0.00
WSH4 G · 4.7 xG · 72 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsWSH
2.55 G
All situations
4 G4.7
2.12 G
Even strength
3 G2.5
0.33 G
Power play
1 G2.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 108 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL19%81%WSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.43 – 4.65

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsWSH
28
Shots on goal
58
49%
Faceoffs
51%
3/3
Power play
1/6
21
Penalty minutes
15
17
Hits
34
14
Blocked shots
15
6
Giveaways
12
15
Takeaways
16

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77V. HedmanD112+230.20000—28:35
27R. McDonaghD000-220.10340—25:20
81E. CernakD000-220.01330—22:01
86N. KucherovR202080.67100—21:39
21B. PointC000000.000126320:14
71A. CirelliC101-230.320003819:56
98M. SergachevD000010.02014—19:38
91S. StamkosC123-130.400225818:12
18O. PalatL011010.10002—16:42
9T. JohnsonC000+120.29100014:17
10J. MillerC011000.003103314:05
55B. CoburnD000-100.00000—12:58
13C. PaquetteC000000.001143312:27
17A. KillornL000-210.02000—12:05
37Y. GourdeC011+100.00105012:00
44J. RuttaD000000.00012—11:47
73A. ErneL000020.2330010008:12
7M. JosephR011-100.09100—07:15
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(W)58544.9314.71+0.7163:01

Season series

TBL leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).