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Capitals at Lightning
NHL

Washington Capitals at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Washington Capitals
3
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸6
FinalTV NHLN, NBCSWA·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Washington Capitals 6-3. The Lightning scored first and never trailed. The Lightning led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Erik Cernak's goal at 2:45 of the third period, which took the Lightning's chances from 77% to 92%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 4.4 to 2.8; shots on goal were WSH 34, TBL 35. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Capitals win a replay of these chances 50% of the time. Braden Holtby stopped 29 of 33 (.879), 1.2 goals below expected; Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 31 of 34 (.912). Three stars: 1. Alex Killorn (3 G), 2. Erik Cernak (1 G), 3. Alex Ovechkin (2 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    A. Killorn3 G
  2. ★★
    TBL
    E. Cernak1 G
  3. ★★★
    WSH
    A. Ovechkin2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
WSHWSH19113112334
TBLTBL31605314635

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. TBL
    T. Johnson(26)
    B. Point (49), N. Kucherov (81)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +13 pts
    0-1
    8:35
  2. TBL
    A. Killorn(14)
    Unassisted
    deflectedxG 0.05win prob +14 pts
    0-2
    10:33
  3. WSH
    J. Carlson(12)
    E. Kuznetsov (45)
    slapxG 0.06win prob +14 pts
    1-2
    12:06
  4. TBL
    A. Killorn(15)
    A. Cirelli (17), M. Joseph (10)
    wristxG 0.23win prob +14 pts
    1-3
    15:56

2nd period

  1. WSH
    A. Ovechkin(47)PPG
    T. Oshie (24), J. Carlson (52)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +13 pts
    2-3
    7:33

3rd period

  1. TBL
    E. Cernak(4)
    R. McDonagh (29), O. Palat (23)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +15 pts
    2-4
    2:45
  2. WSH
    A. Ovechkin(48)
    D. Orlov (23), B. Connolly (21)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +10 pts
    3-4
    12:56
  3. TBL
    A. Killorn(16)EN
    N. Kucherov (82)
    wristxG 0.67win prob +5 pts
    3-5
    19:13
  4. TBL
    Y. Gourde(19)EN
    A. Erne (12), V. Hedman (37)
    wristxG 0.89
    3-6
    19:58

Penalties

WSH 18 PIM·TBL 18 PIM

1st

  • 17:13TBLOndrej Palat · High stickingdrawn by John Carlson2 min
  • 18:41WSHTom Wilson · Hookingdrawn by Anthony Cirelli2 min
  • 18:53WSHBrett Connolly · Holdingdrawn by Erik Cernak2 min

2nd

  • 5:59TBLNikita Kucherov · Interferencedrawn by Michal Kempny2 min
  • 14:42WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov · Slashingdrawn by Adam Erne2 min
  • 18:49TBLRyan McDonagh · Roughingdrawn by T.J. Oshie2 min

3rd

  • 4:10WSHMatt Niskanen · Holdingdrawn by Anthony Cirelli2 min
  • 14:22TBLOndrej Palat · Trippingdrawn by Brett Connolly2 min
  • 19:46WSHTom Wilson · Misconduct10 min
  • 19:46TBLErik Cernak · Misconduct10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalWSH goalFinal: TBL 100%

Biggest swing: Erik Cernak, 3rd 2:45 — TBL 77% → 92%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
Y. Gourde · Goal · xG 0.89A. Killorn · Goal · xG 0.67A. Killorn · Goal · xG 0.23A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.20S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.20J. Miller · On goal · xG 0.18A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.15O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.13N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.13C. Paquette · On goal · xG 0.12B. Point · Missed · xG 0.12N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.11T. Johnson · Goal · xG 0.10J. Miller · On goal · xG 0.09A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.09N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.08N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.07O. Palat · Missed · xG 0.07R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.07C. Paquette · On goal · xG 0.07C. Paquette · On goal · xG 0.07S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.06M. Sergachev · Missed · xG 0.06M. Joseph · On goal · xG 0.06T. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.05A. Killorn · Goal · xG 0.05J. Miller · On goal · xG 0.04B. Coburn · On goal · xG 0.03J. Rutta · On goal · xG 0.02B. Coburn · On goal · xG 0.02R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.02J. Rutta · On goal · xG 0.02E. Cernak · Goal · xG 0.02B. Coburn · On goal · xG 0.01V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.01C. Paquette · On goal · xG 0.01J. Miller · On goal · xG 0.01N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.01Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.01A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.01E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.01B. Coburn · On goal · xG 0.00
TBL6 G · 4.4 xG · 42 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

WSHvsTBL
2.83 G
All situations
4 G4.4
1.82 G
Even strength
4 G2.1
1.01 G
Power play
0 G0.7
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 93 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
WSH50%50%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.81 – 2.80

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

WSHvsTBL
34
Shots on goal
35
35%
Faceoffs
65%
1/4
Power play
0/4
18
Penalty minutes
18
23
Hits
33
8
Blocked shots
12
5
Giveaways
9
2
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Washington Capitals skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
74J. CarlsonD112-140.25120—27:12
8A. OvechkinL202-171.02300—25:57
19N. BackstromC000-320.221103822:32
2M. NiskanenD000-230.16012—20:47
92E. KuznetsovC011-120.211024219:09
43T. WilsonR000-200.047012—18:41
9D. OrlovD011-120.10100—18:20
6M. KempnyD000+130.08000—18:14
77T. OshieR011-320.071106018:02
62C. HagelinL000-100.00010—17:09
20L. EllerC000-220.132101815:18
10B. ConnollyR011000.0220210013:11
3N. JensenD000-210.02110—12:46
13J. VranaL000-230.28200—12:10
44B. OrpikD000-100.00000—11:12
18C. StephensonC000-100.000005009:35
65A. BurakovskyL000020.05100—07:30
72T. BoydC000010.17000006:37
Washington Capitals goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
70B. Holtby(L)33294.8792.84-1.1657:38

Season series

TBL leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).