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Maple Leafs at Sabres
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸4
Buffalo Sabres
2
FinalTV MSG-B, SN·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Buffalo Sabres 4-2. The Sabres scored first; the Maple Leafs answered. The Maple Leafs led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was John Tavares's goal at 18:32 of the second period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 47% to 71%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 4.0 to 1.8; shots on goal were TOR 46, BUF 24. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 81% of the time. Garret Sparks stopped 22 of 24 (.917); Carter Hutton stopped 42 of 45 (.933), 0.7 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Auston Matthews (1 G, 1 A), 2. John Tavares (1 G, 1 A), 3. Carter Hutton (42 saves, .933).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    A. Matthews1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    J. Tavares1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    C. Hutton42 saves, .933

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR01921928446
BUFBUF170819224

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    C. Mittelstadt(11)PPG
    R. Dahlin (31), J. Eichel (48)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +14 pts
    0-1
    15:04

2nd period

  1. TOR
    A. Matthews(35)
    A. Johnsson (21), J. Muzzin (28)
    deflectedxG 0.11win prob +16 pts
    1-1
    1:43
  2. TOR
    J. Tavares(41)
    W. Nylander (18), A. Matthews (33)
    backhandxG 0.08win prob +23 pts
    2-1
    18:32

3rd period

  1. TOR
    M. Marner(25)
    J. Tavares (40)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +17 pts
    3-1
    0:22
  2. BUF
    A. Nylander(1)
    V. Sobotka (8), Z. Bogosian (16)
    slapxG 0.10win prob +16 pts
    3-2
    5:37
  3. TOR
    Z. Hyman(18)EN
    Unassisted
    backhandxG 0.28win prob +5 pts
    4-2
    19:27

Penalties

TOR 4 PIM·BUF 6 PIM

1st

  • 5:19BUFJohan Larsson · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Garret Sparks2 min
  • 10:10BUFJack Eichel · Cross checkingdrawn by William Nylander2 min
  • 13:16TORZach Hyman · Hookingdrawn by Jeff Skinner2 min
  • 19:06TORZach Hyman · Roughingdrawn by Rasmus Ristolainen2 min

2nd

  • 9:38BUFZemgus Girgensons · Cross checkingdrawn by Nazem Kadri2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalTOR goalFinal: BUF 0%

Biggest swing: John Tavares, 2nd 18:32 — TOR 47% → 71%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Larsson · On goal · xG 0.17K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.13T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.11A. Nylander · Goal · xG 0.10C. Mittelstadt · Goal · xG 0.10J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.09S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.08S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.08Z. Girgensons · Missed · xG 0.07J. Eichel · Missed · xG 0.07C. Mittelstadt · Missed · xG 0.07T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.07C. Mittelstadt · Missed · xG 0.06S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.05T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.05V. Sobotka · On goal · xG 0.05J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.05C. Sheary · Missed · xG 0.04S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.03R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.03Z. Bogosian · On goal · xG 0.03K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.03J. Eichel · Missed · xG 0.02E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.02M. Scandella · On goal · xG 0.02B. Montour · Missed · xG 0.02C. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.02C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.02R. Ristolainen · Missed · xG 0.02C. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.02C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.01J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.01J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.01C. Nelson · Missed · xG 0.01S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.01Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.01E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF2 G · 1.8 xG · 37 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsBUF
4.03 G
All situations
2 G1.8
2.93 G
Even strength
1 G1.2
0.60 G
Power play
1 G0.3
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 100 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR81%19%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.72 – 1.76

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsBUF
46
Shots on goal
24
55%
Faceoffs
45%
0/3
Power play
1/2
4
Penalty minutes
6
7
Hits
26
10
Blocked shots
14
6
Giveaways
4
4
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
44M. RiellyD000+110.01020—25:25
2R. HainseyD000+240.07020—24:21
8J. MuzzinD011+210.03110—24:13
22N. ZaitsevD000+220.04020—23:41
16M. MarnerR101+120.40100—22:30
91J. TavaresC112+260.860006019:57
34A. MatthewsC112+270.870104519:39
29W. NylanderR011+230.220004417:23
12P. MarleauC000020.1111010017:18
11Z. HymanL101+120.5200410017:12
24K. KapanenR000070.51000—15:56
43N. KadriC000010.041006715:56
18A. JohnssonL011+130.18210—15:01
92I. OzhiganovD000-110.01000—08:42
19N. PetanC000010.110002007:47
28C. BrownR000010.020003307:47
3J. HollD000010.01100—07:43
42T. MooreL000010.01000—05:41
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40G. Sparks(W)24222.9171.77-0.2360:00

Season series

TOR leads 4-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).