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Sabres at Maple Leafs
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
2
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸5
FinalTV NHLN, MSG-B·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Buffalo Sabres 5-2. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Maple Leafs led 4-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nic Petan's goal at 15:02 of the second period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 53% to 69%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 3.3 to 2.3; shots on goal were BUF 37, TOR 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 58% of the time. Linus Ullmark stopped 27 of 31 (.871), 1.1 goals below expected; Frederik Andersen stopped 35 of 37 (.946). Three stars: 1. John Tavares (1 G, 2 A), 2. Mitch Marner (1 G, 2 A), 3. Nic Petan (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    J. Tavares1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    M. Marner1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    N. Petan1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF21007020237
TORTOR2162719532

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    J. Tavares(37)
    M. Marner (54), M. Marincin (3)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    4:20
  2. BUF
    J. Pominville(15)
    Z. Girgensons (11), M. Scandella (7)
    backhandxG 0.18win prob +12 pts
    1-1
    6:00
  3. BUF
    C. Sheary(12)
    K. Okposo (14)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +13 pts
    2-1
    7:34
  4. TOR
    M. Rielly(16)
    A. Matthews (30), R. Hainsey (15)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +16 pts
    2-2
    19:40

2nd period

  1. TOR
    N. Petan(1)
    T. Moore (4)
    snapxG 0.12win prob +17 pts
    2-3
    15:02
  2. TOR
    N. Zaitsev(3)
    M. Marner (55), J. Tavares (33)
    deflectedxG 0.06win prob +15 pts
    2-4
    19:05

3rd period

  1. TOR
    M. Marner(23)EN
    J. Tavares (34), J. Muzzin (24)
    backhandxG 0.36win prob +1 pts
    2-5
    18:03

Penalties

BUF 9 PIM·TOR 9 PIM

1st

  • 11:21BUFKyle Okposo · Hookingdrawn by Auston Matthews2 min
  • 14:08TORMitch Marner · Slashingdrawn by Casey Mittelstadt2 min

2nd

  • 11:40TORKasperi Kapanen · Fightingdrawn by Evan Rodrigues5 min
  • 11:40BUFEvan Rodrigues · Fightingdrawn by Kasperi Kapanen5 min
  • 12:00BUFBrandon Montour · Cross checkingdrawn by Trevor Moore2 min

3rd

  • 2:22TORJohn Tavares · Hookingdrawn by Jeff Skinner2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalBUF goalFinal: TOR 100%

Biggest swing: Nic Petan, 2nd 15:02 — TOR 53% → 69%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Marner · Goal · xG 0.36J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.28P. Marleau · On goal · xG 0.22P. Marleau · On goal · xG 0.20W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.17P. Marleau · On goal · xG 0.15K. Kapanen · On goal · xG 0.15N. Petan · Goal · xG 0.12K. Kapanen · Missed · xG 0.12A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.10A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.08K. Kapanen · Missed · xG 0.08A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.08A. Johnsson · On goal · xG 0.08A. Johnsson · Missed · xG 0.07M. Marincin · On goal · xG 0.07W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.06M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.06M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.06J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.06J. Tavares · Goal · xG 0.06W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.06M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.06N. Zaitsev · Goal · xG 0.06A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.05J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.04J. Muzzin · On goal · xG 0.03N. Zaitsev · On goal · xG 0.03P. Marleau · On goal · xG 0.03Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.03F. Gauthier · On goal · xG 0.02M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.02M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.02M. Rielly · Goal · xG 0.02K. Kapanen · On goal · xG 0.02J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.02I. Ozhiganov · On goal · xG 0.02R. Hainsey · Missed · xG 0.01M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.01K. Kapanen · Missed · xG 0.01M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.01J. Muzzin · Missed · xG 0.01I. Ozhiganov · Missed · xG 0.01M. Marincin · On goal · xG 0.01
TOR5 G · 3.3 xG · 44 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsTOR
2.32 G
All situations
4 G3.3
2.02 G
Even strength
4 G2.4
0.30 G
Power play
0 G0.4
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 89 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF42%58%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.28 – 2.71

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsTOR
37
Shots on goal
32
36%
Faceoffs
64%
0/2
Power play
0/2
9
Penalty minutes
9
27
Hits
27
17
Blocked shots
13
10
Giveaways
12
7
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
55R. RistolainenD000-220.04610—23:27
4Z. BogosianD000-140.09430—22:35
26R. DahlinD000-230.12300—22:31
62B. MontourD000020.01122—20:30
9J. EichelC000-130.204304019:32
23S. ReinhartC000-120.28010018:36
53J. SkinnerL000-170.660202517:49
21K. OkposoR011-120.071025016:16
43C. ShearyL101-210.12010—15:39
71E. RodriguesC000-210.153051315:39
6M. ScandellaD011-120.04020—15:34
28Z. GirgensonsC011020.17400015:02
22J. LarssonL000+110.060105014:05
19J. McCabeD000020.05100—13:48
37C. MittelstadtC000-100.000006012:52
29J. PominvilleR101010.18000—11:45
72T. ThompsonC000-200.00010010:46
20S. WilsonC000020.08000010:38
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35L. Ullmark(L)31274.8712.90-1.1058:56

Season series

TOR leads 4-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).