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Maple Leafs at Sabres
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸4
Buffalo Sabres
3
Final/OTTV NBCSN, TSN4·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Buffalo Sabres 4-3 in overtime, Auston Matthews scoring at 4:57. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Maple Leafs led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Sam Reinhart's goal at 14:01 of the second period, which took the Sabres' chances from 82% to 53%. Expected goals were close — TOR 2.9, BUF 2.8; shots on goal were TOR 30, BUF 41. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Frederik Andersen stopped 38 of 41 (.927); Linus Ullmark stopped 26 of 30 (.867), 1.1 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Auston Matthews (2 G, 1 A), 2. Jack Eichel (2 G), 3. Rasmus Ristolainen (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    A. Matthews2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    BUF
    J. Eichel2 G
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    R. Ristolainen2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
TORTOR0721011112430
BUFBUF01411221104341

Scoring

7 goals

2nd period

  1. TOR
    A. Matthews(14)
    R. Hainsey (9)
    backhandxG 0.05
    1-0
    8:33
  2. BUF
    S. Reinhart(8)
    N. Beaulieu (3), R. Ristolainen (13)
    tip-inxG 0.08win prob -29 pts
    1-1
    14:01
  3. TOR
    J. Gardiner(2)
    J. Tavares (14), M. Marner (33)
    wristxG 0.15
    2-1
    19:50

3rd period

  1. BUF
    J. Eichel(6)
    R. Ristolainen (14), J. Skinner (9)
    slapxG 0.05win prob +24 pts
    2-2
    2:39
  2. BUF
    J. Eichel(7)
    S. Reinhart (16)
    wristxG 0.28win prob -11 pts
    2-3
    12:57
  3. TOR
    P. Marleau(7)
    M. Rielly (21), A. Matthews (8)
    wristxG 0.05
    3-3
    14:47

Overtime

  1. TOR
    A. Matthews(15)
    K. Kapanen (9), J. Gardiner (11)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +13 pts
    4-3
    4:57

Penalties

TOR 4 PIM·BUF 4 PIM

2nd

  • 11:19TORConnor Brown · Interferencedrawn by Johan Larsson2 min
  • 11:39BUFTage Thompson · Hookingdrawn by Zach Hyman2 min

3rd

  • 7:16BUFTage Thompson · Hookingdrawn by Travis Dermott2 min
  • 8:44TORPatrick Marleau · Interferencedrawn by Zach Bogosian2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalTOR goalFinal: BUF 0%

Biggest swing: Sam Reinhart, 2nd 14:01 — BUF 82% → 53%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Eichel · Goal · xG 0.28J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.26P. Berglund · On goal · xG 0.19J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.14E. Rodrigues · Missed · xG 0.12R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.12J. Larsson · On goal · xG 0.12R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.12K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.11K. Okposo · Missed · xG 0.10C. Mittelstadt · Missed · xG 0.09R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.09S. Reinhart · Goal · xG 0.08C. Sheary · On goal · xG 0.07C. Sheary · On goal · xG 0.07E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.06J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.06J. Eichel · Goal · xG 0.05C. Sheary · On goal · xG 0.05Z. Girgensons · Missed · xG 0.04R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.04C. Sheary · On goal · xG 0.04J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.04R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.04J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.04J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.04C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.03J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.03V. Sobotka · Missed · xG 0.03Z. Bogosian · On goal · xG 0.03T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.02J. Eichel · Missed · xG 0.02J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.02K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.02C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.02Z. Bogosian · On goal · xG 0.02Z. Bogosian · On goal · xG 0.02E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.02V. Sobotka · On goal · xG 0.02L. Pilut · On goal · xG 0.01E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.01J. Larsson · Missed · xG 0.01Z. Bogosian · Missed · xG 0.01E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.01E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.01J. Larsson · On goal · xG 0.01S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.00J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.00J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF3 G · 2.8 xG · 49 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsBUF
2.94 G
All situations
3 G2.8
2.64 G
Even strength
3 G2.8
0.00 G
Power play
0 G0.0
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 90 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR49%51%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.77 – 2.83

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsBUF
30
Shots on goal
41
56%
Faceoffs
44%
0/2
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
4
11
Hits
14
11
Blocked shots
22
11
Giveaways
10
0
Takeaways
2

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
44M. RiellyD011+320.13210—25:50
51J. GardinerD112+110.15010—24:48
34A. MatthewsC213+350.450205823:22
16M. MarnerR011+120.19000—22:20
91J. TavaresC011+150.611006422:00
2R. HainseyD011010.02100—20:31
22N. ZaitsevD000-310.02120—20:22
12P. MarleauC101+220.13102020:20
24K. KapanenR011+310.19100—19:07
11Z. HymanL000000.001001718:23
23T. DermottD000020.08210—18:10
43N. KadriC000-110.020006716:57
28C. BrownR000-120.08002—14:11
92I. OzhiganovD000010.01140—13:48
18A. JohnssonL000-120.17000—12:38
26P. LindholmC000-200.000002506:52
63T. EnnisR000-110.30000—05:49
33F. GauthierC000-210.33000005:23
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31F. Andersen(W)41383.9272.84-0.1664:57

Season series

TOR leads 4-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).