Stars at Wild 4-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Dallas Stars

▸4

Minnesota Wild

FinalTV FS-N, FS-SW·Xcel Energy Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the Minnesota Wild 4-1. The Stars scored first and never trailed. The Stars led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Radek Faksa's goal at 4:11 of the second period, which took the Stars' chances from 47% to 64%. Expected goals favored the Stars, 2.9 to 0.9; shots on goal were DAL 31, MIN 22. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 77% of the time. Anton Khudobin stopped 14 of 15 (.933); Devan Dubnyk stopped 27 of 30 (.900), 0.9 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Joel L'Esperance (1 G), 2. Roope Hintz (1 G), 3. Jason Zucker (1 G).

Three stars

★
J. L'Esperance1 G
★★
R. Hintz1 G
★★★
J. Zucker1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DAL	09	311	111	431
MIN	07	15	010	122

Scoring

5 goals

2nd period

R. Faksa(13)
B. Comeau (10), R. Polak (7)
tip-inxG 0.05win prob +17 pts
1-0
4:11
R. Hintz(8)
T. Seguin (37), J. Klingberg (28)
wristxG 0.01win prob +17 pts
2-0
5:25
J. L'Esperance(1)
J. Benn (22), M. Heiskanen (19)
wristxG 0.41win prob +11 pts
3-0
6:33
J. Zucker(21)PPG
P. Aberg (12), B. Hunt (7)
wristxG 0.17win prob +9 pts
3-1
9:14

3rd period

A. Radulov(22)EN
T. Seguin (38)
wristxG 0.52
4-1
19:42

Penalties

2 PIM·

2 PIM

2nd

8:08Roope Hintz · Holdingdrawn by Jared Spurgeon2 min
14:31Jonas Brodin · Hookingdrawn by Roman Polak2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: MIN

Biggest swing: Radek Faksa, 2nd 4:11 — DAL 47% → 64%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 0.9 xG · 28 att

←

attacks

attacks →

4 G · 2.9 xG · 40 att MIN

1 G · 0.9 xG · 28 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.93 G
All situations: 1 G0.9; 1.93 G
Even strength: 0 G0.5; 0.20 G
Power play: 1 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 68 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

77%23%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.09 – 0.87

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

31
Shots on goal: 22; 60%
Faceoffs: 40%; 0/1
Power play: 1/1; 2
Penalty minutes: 2; 19
Hits: 16; 13
Blocked shots: 13; 2
Giveaways: 6; 8
Takeaways: 4

Box score

every player line

Dallas Stars skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
23E. LindellD	0	0	0	+2	1	0.02	1	2	0	—	25:45
3J. KlingbergD	0	1	1	+1	2	0.02	0	1	0	—	21:52
4M. HeiskanenD	0	1	1	+1	2	0.30	1	0	0	—	21:31
91T. SeguinC	0	2	2	+2	2	0.43	0	0	0	59	19:15
45R. PolakD	0	1	1	+1	0	0.06	3	2	0	—	19:01
47A. RadulovR	1	0	1	+2	3	0.57	1	1	0	—	18:48
21B. LovejoyD	0	0	0	+2	0	0.00	1	1	0	—	18:11
13M. JanmarkC	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	0	1	0	0	17:17
12R. FaksaC	1	0	1	+1	3	0.26	2	3	0	71	16:44
15B. ComeauL	0	1	1	+1	3	0.12	0	0	0	—	16:18
24R. HintzC	1	0	1	+1	3	0.22	4	1	2	50	16:12
14J. BennL	0	1	1	+2	2	0.10	3	0	0	100	16:11
16J. DickinsonC	0	0	0	+1	2	0.10	0	0	0	20	15:02
38J. L'EsperanceR	1	0	1	+1	6	0.66	1	0	0	—	14:19
42T. FedunD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	0	1	0	—	13:40
17A. CoglianoC	0	0	0	0	1	0.04	0	0	0	0	10:09
90J. SpezzaC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	86	09:29
25B. RitchieR	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	2	0	0	—	09:10

Dallas Stars goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
35A. Khudobin	15	14	1	.933	0.76	-0.24	33:27
30B. Bishop(W)	7	7	0	1.000	0.11	+0.11	26:33

Season series

DAL leads 4-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Dallas Stars at Minnesota Wild

2nd period

3rd period

2nd

Box score