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Predators at Jets
NHL

Nashville Predators at Winnipeg Jets

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
3
Winnipeg Jets
▸5
FinalTV FS-TN, TSN3·Bell MTS Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Winnipeg Jets beat the Nashville Predators 5-3. The Jets came back from two goals down. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Blake Wheeler's goal at 14:09 of the third period, which took the Jets' chances from 52% to 88%. Expected goals were close — NSH 3.6, WPG 3.6; shots on goal were NSH 38, WPG 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 68% of the time. Pekka Rinne stopped 27 of 30 (.900), 0.7 goals below expected; Laurent Brossoit stopped 35 of 38 (.921), 0.6 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Laurent Brossoit (35 saves, .921), 2. Blake Wheeler (1 G, 2 A), 3. Kevin Hayes (1 G, 2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    WPG
    L. Brossoit35 saves, .921
  2. ★★
    WPG
    B. Wheeler1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    WPG
    K. Hayes1 G, 2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NSHNSH110111117338
WPGWPG01121536532

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. NSH
    V. Arvidsson(27)
    F. Forsberg (19)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +15 pts
    1-0
    15:21

2nd period

  1. NSH
    P. Subban(7)PPG
    R. Johansen (43), R. Ellis (28)
    slapxG 0.05win prob +13 pts
    2-0
    12:12
  2. WPG
    M. Scheifele(32)PPG
    B. Wheeler (62), J. Trouba (31)
    backhandxG 0.09win prob +14 pts
    2-1
    15:48
  3. WPG
    K. Connor(25)
    N. Ehlers (13), K. Hayes (29)
    snapxG 0.20win prob +23 pts
    2-2
    18:21

3rd period

  1. WPG
    B. Wheeler(13)
    M. Scheifele (39)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +36 pts
    2-3
    14:09
  2. WPG
    T. Myers(8)EN
    M. Scheifele (40), K. Hayes (30)
    backhandxG 0.37win prob +6 pts
    2-4
    18:14
  3. NSH
    M. Ekholm(8)
    R. Ellis (29), M. Granlund (35)
    slapxG 0.02win prob +4 pts
    3-4
    19:00
  4. WPG
    K. Hayes(15)EN
    B. Wheeler (63)
    wristxG 0.91win prob +5 pts
    3-5
    19:28

Penalties

NSH 8 PIM·WPG 6 PIM

1st

  • 11:24NSHserved by R. Grimaldi · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 18:26NSHKyle Turris · Cross checkingdrawn by Adam Lowry2 min

2nd

  • 4:53NSHRoman Josi · Cross checkingdrawn by Kyle Connor2 min
  • 9:34WPGBryan Little · Hookingdrawn by Filip Forsberg2 min
  • 12:01WPGMathieu Perreault · Trippingdrawn by P.K. Subban2 min
  • 14:38NSHKyle Turris · Trippingdrawn by Nathan Beaulieu2 min

3rd

  • 14:35WPGAdam Lowry · High stickingdrawn by Filip Forsberg2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
WPG goalNSH goalFinal: WPG 100%

Biggest swing: Blake Wheeler, 3rd 14:09 — WPG 52% → 88%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
K. Hayes · Goal · xG 0.91T. Myers · Goal · xG 0.37M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.35M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.28K. Connor · Goal · xG 0.20P. Laine · Missed · xG 0.11P. Laine · On goal · xG 0.09M. Scheifele · Goal · xG 0.09J. Roslovic · Missed · xG 0.09N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.08N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.08A. Lowry · Missed · xG 0.07N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.06M. Scheifele · Missed · xG 0.06M. Perreault · On goal · xG 0.06A. Copp · Missed · xG 0.06M. Scheifele · Missed · xG 0.05B. Chiarot · On goal · xG 0.05K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.05N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.05S. Niku · Missed · xG 0.05B. Wheeler · Goal · xG 0.04J. Trouba · On goal · xG 0.04J. Trouba · On goal · xG 0.04P. Laine · On goal · xG 0.04P. Laine · Missed · xG 0.03P. Laine · On goal · xG 0.03N. Beaulieu · On goal · xG 0.02K. Hayes · On goal · xG 0.02N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.02N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.02K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.01K. Hayes · Missed · xG 0.01B. Chiarot · Missed · xG 0.01J. Trouba · On goal · xG 0.01K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.01K. Hayes · On goal · xG 0.01B. Chiarot · Missed · xG 0.01K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.01B. Chiarot · On goal · xG 0.01B. Wheeler · On goal · xG 0.01B. Wheeler · On goal · xG 0.01B. Little · On goal · xG 0.00
WPG5 G · 3.6 xG · 43 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsWPG
3.63 G
All situations
3 G3.6
2.92 G
Even strength
2 G1.2
0.71 G
Power play
1 G1.1
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 93 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH68%32%WPG

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.35 – 2.31

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsWPG
38
Shots on goal
32
52%
Faceoffs
48%
1/3
Power play
1/4
8
Penalty minutes
6
32
Hits
23
12
Blocked shots
13
10
Giveaways
10
2
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
59R. JosiD000-330.13122—25:01
4R. EllisD022+110.04110—24:52
14M. EkholmD101+130.05200—24:12
76P. SubbanD101-330.09100—23:55
92R. JohansenC011-350.910005721:12
33V. ArvidssonL101-271.00110—20:34
64M. GranlundC011-130.10200018:28
9F. ForsbergL011-310.17620—18:11
19C. JarnkrokC000+120.12100015:41
10C. SissonsC000000.004006415:10
8K. TurrisC000+110.252046415:06
13N. BoninoC000020.270004412:59
17W. SimmondsR000+120.23120—12:40
11B. BoyleC000-120.123005012:26
52M. IrwinD000020.07300—10:28
7Y. WeberD000010.05210—09:24
23R. GrimaldiR000000.00010—08:22
89F. GaudreauC000000.00220006:14
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35P. Rinne(L)30273.9002.32-0.6857:57

Season series

WPG leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).