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Winnipeg Jets at Minnesota Wild

FinalTV NBCSN, TSN3·Xcel Energy Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Minnesota Wild beat the Winnipeg Jets 3-2. The Wild scored first and never trailed. The Wild led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jason Zucker's goal at 11:04 of the second period, which took the Wild's chances from 72% to 87%. Expected goals favored the Jets, 2.0 to 1.5; shots on goal were WPG 28, MIN 22. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Jets win a replay of these chances 60% of the time. Connor Hellebuyck stopped 19 of 22 (.864), 1.4 goals below expected; Devan Dubnyk stopped 26 of 28 (.929). Three stars: 1. Jared Spurgeon (2 A), 2. Jason Zucker (2 G), 3. Devan Dubnyk (26 saves, .929).

Three stars

  1. ★
    MIN
    J. Spurgeon2 A
  2. ★★
    MIN
    J. Zucker2 G
  3. ★★★
    MIN
    D. Dubnyk26 saves, .929

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
WPGWPG0619113228
MINMIN11021200322

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. MIN
    wristxG 0.08win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    5:40

2nd period

  1. MIN
    J. Zucker(11)PPG
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +15 pts
    0-2
    11:04
  2. MIN
    wristxG 0.15win prob +8 pts
    0-3
    17:50
  3. WPG
    wristxG 0.10win prob +6 pts
    1-3
    19:19

3rd period

  1. WPG
    B. Little (16), K. Connor (16)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +7 pts
    2-3
    17:22

Penalties

WPG 4 PIM·MIN 8 PIM

1st

  • 3:01MINMikael Granlund · Roughingdrawn by Jacob Trouba2 min
  • 7:42WPGBlake Wheeler · Trippingdrawn by Mikael Granlund2 min
  • 15:46MINEric Staal · Hookingdrawn by Mark Scheifele2 min

2nd

  • 9:08WPGKyle Connor · Trippingdrawn by Eric Staal2 min
  • 15:40MINJason Zucker · Hookingdrawn by Kyle Connor2 min

3rd

  • 5:19MINMarcus Foligno · Hookingdrawn by Mark Scheifele2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
MIN goalWPG goalFinal: MIN 100%

Biggest swing: Jason Zucker, 2nd 11:04 — MIN 72% → 87%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Zucker · Goal · xG 0.15J. Zucker · Goal · xG 0.12N. Niederreiter · Missed · xG 0.10M. Granlund · Missed · xG 0.09J. Greenway · Goal · xG 0.08C. Coyle · On goal · xG 0.07E. Staal · On goal · xG 0.07E. Staal · On goal · xG 0.07M. Foligno · On goal · xG 0.07R. Suter · On goal · xG 0.06J. Zucker · Missed · xG 0.06N. Niederreiter · Missed · xG 0.06N. Niederreiter · Missed · xG 0.05J. Spurgeon · On goal · xG 0.05M. Koivu · Missed · xG 0.05E. Staal · On goal · xG 0.05R. Suter · Missed · xG 0.04M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.04C. Coyle · On goal · xG 0.04M. Hendricks · On goal · xG 0.03L. Kunin · Missed · xG 0.03Z. Parise · On goal · xG 0.03J. Eriksson Ek · On goal · xG 0.02J. Spurgeon · Missed · xG 0.02J. Brodin · Missed · xG 0.02J. Greenway · Missed · xG 0.02M. Hendricks · On goal · xG 0.01J. Eriksson Ek · Missed · xG 0.01Z. Parise · On goal · xG 0.01G. Pateryn · On goal · xG 0.01J. Brodin · Missed · xG 0.01M. Granlund · Missed · xG 0.01J. Spurgeon · On goal · xG 0.00J. Brodin · On goal · xG 0.00J. Spurgeon · Missed · xG 0.00M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.00M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.00
MIN3 G · 1.5 xG · 37 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

WPGvsMIN
2.02 G
All situations
3 G1.5
1.22 G
Even strength
2 G1.1
0.70 G
Power play
1 G0.4
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 81 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
WPG60%40%MIN

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.03 – 1.55

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

WPGvsMIN
28
Shots on goal
22
35%
Faceoffs
65%
0/4
Power play
1/2
4
Penalty minutes
8
21
Hits
15
7
Blocked shots
22
1
Giveaways
2
3
Takeaways
10

Box score

every player line
Winnipeg Jets skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8J. TroubaD000-120.07000—27:33
55M. ScheifeleC101+120.320002526:34
44J. MorrisseyD000+130.21110—25:37
26B. WheelerR000040.29002—25:34
81K. ConnorL011030.15012—24:52
29P. LaineL000020.18100—19:47
7B. ChiarotD000020.26400—19:12
18B. LittleC011+100.051002915:28
57T. MyersD000020.13330—14:58
28J. RoslovicC000-110.04100013:30
5D. KulikovD011010.06200—13:04
9A. CoppC011+130.140005012:42
85M. PerreaultC000-100.00100012:26
13B. TanevL101020.11410—11:47
17A. LowryC000000.010106710:22
70J. MorrowD000000.02100—09:48
82M. AppletonC000000.00100007:24
48B. LemieuxL000010.02100—07:19
Winnipeg Jets goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
37C. Hellebuyck(L)22193.8641.55-1.4558:07

Season series

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).