Wild at Jets 3-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Minnesota Wild

▸3

Winnipeg Jets

FinalTV FS-N, TSN3·Bell MTS Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Minnesota Wild beat the Winnipeg Jets 3-1. The Wild scored first and never trailed. The Wild led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Charlie Coyle's goal at 2:17 of the second period, which took the Wild's chances from 63% to 80%. Expected goals favored the Wild, 2.6 to 1.1; shots on goal were MIN 25, WPG 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Wild win a replay of these chances 56% of the time. Devan Dubnyk stopped 26 of 27 (.963); Connor Hellebuyck stopped 22 of 24 (.917), 0.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Charlie Coyle (1 G), 2. Jordan Greenway, 3. Connor Hellebuyck (22 saves, .917).

Three stars

★
C. Coyle1 G
★★
J. Greenway
★★★
C. Hellebuyck22 saves, .917

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MIN	111	17	17	325
WPG	06	010	111	127

Scoring

4 goals

1st period

M. Bartkowski(1)
M. Foligno (5)
wristxG 0.01win prob +13 pts
1-0
9:28

2nd period

C. Coyle(6)
L. Kunin (1), Z. Parise (15)
wristxG 0.18win prob +16 pts
2-0
2:17

3rd period

P. Laine(24)PPG
B. Wheeler (44), D. Byfuglien (25)
slapxG 0.04win prob +14 pts
2-1
7:21
E. Fehr(5)EN
Z. Parise (16)
wristxG 0.89win prob +5 pts
3-1
19:13

Penalties

6 PIM·

2 PIM

2nd

16:53Greg Pateryn · Cross checkingdrawn by Mark Scheifele2 min

3rd

5:44Nino Niederreiter · Holdingdrawn by Blake Wheeler2 min
18:05Jordan Greenway · Slashingdrawn by Mathieu Perreault2 min
18:05Mathieu Perreault · Cross checkingdrawn by Jordan Greenway2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: WPG

Biggest swing: Charlie Coyle, 2nd 2:17 — MIN 63% → 80%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 1.1 xG · 35 att

←

attacks

attacks →

3 G · 2.6 xG · 34 att WPG

1 G · 1.1 xG · 35 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.62 G
All situations: 1 G1.1; 1.32 G
Even strength: 0 G1.0; 0.00 G
Power play: 1 G0.1; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 69 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

56%44%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.29 – 1.06

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

25
Shots on goal: 27; 47%
Faceoffs: 53%; 0/0
Power play: 1/2; 6
Penalty minutes: 2; 22
Hits: 26; 24
Blocked shots: 11; 7
Giveaways: 9; 9
Takeaways: 6

Box score

every player line

Minnesota Wild skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
46J. SpurgeonD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	0	5	0	—	26:32
20R. SuterD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.01	0	2	0	—	25:44
29G. PaterynD	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	2	5	2	—	22:56
25J. BrodinD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	2	0	—	22:11
9M. KoivuC	0	0	0	0	1	0.48	0	1	0	59	17:44
3C. CoyleC	1	0	1	+1	2	0.24	2	0	0	38	15:55
16J. ZuckerL	0	0	0	0	1	0.11	1	1	0	—	15:40
11Z. PariseL	0	2	2	+2	2	0.16	0	2	0	—	15:32
64M. GranlundC	0	0	0	0	0	0.05	3	1	0	0	14:59
12E. StaalC	0	0	0	0	2	0.04	2	0	0	11	14:23
21E. FehrC	1	0	1	+2	4	0.97	1	1	0	58	13:56
18J. GreenwayL	0	0	0	0	3	0.30	0	0	2	—	13:37
22N. NiederreiterR	0	0	0	0	1	0.04	2	0	2	—	13:37
19L. KuninC	0	1	1	+1	0	0.01	1	2	0	0	13:30
17M. FolignoL	0	1	1	+1	1	0.03	4	0	0	—	13:18
15M. HendricksC	0	0	0	+1	4	0.11	1	1	0	100	12:13
39N. ProsserD	0	0	0	+2	0	0.00	2	0	0	—	11:49
44M. BartkowskiD	1	0	1	+2	2	0.02	1	1	0	—	10:52

Minnesota Wild goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
40D. Dubnyk(W)	27	26	1	.963	1.07	+0.07	60:00

Season series

MIN leads 5-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Minnesota Wild at Winnipeg Jets

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

2nd

3rd

Box score