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St. Louis Blues at Calgary Flames

FinalTV FS-MW, SNW·Scotiabank Saddledome

Recap

written from the game data

The St. Louis Blues beat the Calgary Flames 3-1. The Blues scored first and never trailed. The Blues led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Oskar Sundqvist's goal at 1:56 of the third period, which took the Blues' chances from 72% to 90%. Expected goals favored the Flames, 2.8 to 2.4; shots on goal were STL 27, CGY 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flames win a replay of these chances 67% of the time. Jake Allen stopped 28 of 29 (.966), 1.8 goals saved above expected; Mike Smith stopped 24 of 27 (.889), 1.1 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. David Perron (1 G, 1 A), 2. Jake Allen (28 saves, .966), 3. Johnny Gaudreau (1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    STL
    D. Perron1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    STL
    J. Allen28 saves, .966
  3. ★★★
    CGY
    J. Gaudreau1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
STLSTL21205110327
CGYCGY1901307129

Scoring

4 goals

1st period

  1. STL
    wristxG 0.07win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    4:06
  2. STL
    T. Bozak(5)PPG
    wristxG 0.20win prob +14 pts
    2-0
    11:43
  3. CGY
    M. Tkachuk(16)PPG
    wristxG 0.18win prob +12 pts
    2-1
    16:49

3rd period

  1. STL
    slapxG 0.11win prob +18 pts
    3-1
    1:56

Penalties

STL 8 PIM·CGY 4 PIM

1st

  • 10:06CGYSam Bennett · Holdingdrawn by Alexander Steen2 min
  • 16:42STLPatrick Maroon · Holdingdrawn by Oliver Kylington2 min
  • 19:00STLDavid Perron · Trippingdrawn by Sean Monahan2 min

2nd

  • 13:51STLJoel Edmundson · Roughingdrawn by Michael Frolik2 min
  • 15:09CGYSean Monahan · High stickingdrawn by Ivan Barbashev2 min

3rd

  • 5:01STLRobert Bortuzzo · Slashingdrawn by Johnny Gaudreau2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CGY goalSTL goalFinal: CGY 0%

Biggest swing: Oskar Sundqvist, 3rd 1:56 — STL 72% → 90%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.20J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.19T. Hamonic · On goal · xG 0.19M. Tkachuk · Goal · xG 0.18J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.15J. Neal · On goal · xG 0.15J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.15R. Andersson · On goal · xG 0.13J. Gaudreau · Missed · xG 0.12N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.12E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.10S. Monahan · Missed · xG 0.09M. Jankowski · On goal · xG 0.09J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.08M. Giordano · Missed · xG 0.07S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.07M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.05J. Neal · Missed · xG 0.05J. Neal · On goal · xG 0.05O. Kylington · On goal · xG 0.04J. Neal · On goal · xG 0.04S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.04M. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.04S. Bennett · Missed · xG 0.04J. Neal · On goal · xG 0.04T. Brodie · Missed · xG 0.04S. Monahan · Missed · xG 0.04S. Monahan · On goal · xG 0.04S. Monahan · On goal · xG 0.03M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.03T. Hamonic · Missed · xG 0.03M. Frolik · On goal · xG 0.02S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.02J. Neal · On goal · xG 0.02M. Frolik · On goal · xG 0.01M. Giordano · Missed · xG 0.01M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.01M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.01M. Frolik · Missed · xG 0.01T. Hamonic · On goal · xG 0.01
CGY1 G · 2.8 xG · 40 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

STLvsCGY
2.43 G
All situations
1 G2.8
1.42 G
Even strength
0 G2.2
0.51 G
Power play
1 G0.6
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 75 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
STL33%67%CGY

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.87 – 2.79

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

STLvsCGY
27
Shots on goal
29
45%
Faceoffs
55%
1/2
Power play
1/4
8
Penalty minutes
4
23
Hits
12
11
Blocked shots
6
12
Giveaways
21
10
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
St. Louis Blues skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
55C. ParaykoD000040.04420—25:52
19J. BouwmeesterD011+110.00030—24:52
6J. EdmundsonD000010.00722—23:11
41R. BortuzzoD000+110.01002—21:49
90R. O'ReillyC000010.120105520:46
57D. PerronL112+120.28112—19:43
20A. SteenL000020.20000—19:37
10B. SchennC000000.002003817:46
91V. TarasenkoR000010.19200—16:15
17J. SchwartzL000000.06010—16:01
21T. BozakC101+130.322002213:18
49I. BarbashevL011+100.541007812:11
29V. DunnD011+100.00010—11:35
7P. MaroonL011+120.22102—10:34
70O. SundqvistC101+160.35200010:30
25C. ButlerD000+100.00000—10:13
18R. ThomasC000000.03000010:09
71J. NolanC000+130.07100009:31
St. Louis Blues goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
34J. Allen(W)29281.9662.79+1.7960:00

Season series

STL leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).