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Avalanche at Blues
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at St. Louis Blues

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
3
St. Louis Blues
▸4
Final/OTTV FS-MW, ALT2·Enterprise Center

Recap

written from the game data

The St. Louis Blues beat the Colorado Avalanche 4-3 in overtime, Ryan O'Reilly scoring at 2:05. The lead changed hands 3 times. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Ryan O'Reilly's goal at 2:05 of overtime, which took the Blues' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 3.5 to 2.4; shots on goal were COL 42, STL 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 69% of the time. Philipp Grubauer stopped 24 of 28 (.857), 1.6 goals below expected; Jake Allen stopped 39 of 42 (.929), 0.5 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Colton Parayko (2 G), 2. Ryan O'Reilly (1 G, 1 A), 3. J.T. Compher (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    STL
    C. Parayko2 G
  2. ★★
    STL
    R. O'Reilly1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    COL
    J. Compher1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
COLCOL21301611201342
STLSTL213061811428

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. STL
    C. Parayko(6)
    R. O'Reilly (18)
    slapxG 0.02win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    3:24
  2. COL
    S. Andrighetto(3)
    J. Compher (3), T. Jost (7)
    wristxG 0.25win prob +12 pts
    1-1
    5:42
  3. COL
    M. Calvert(4)
    C. Soderberg (12), M. Nieto (6)
    backhandxG 0.13win prob +13 pts
    2-1
    9:48
  4. STL
    I. Barbashev(5)
    J. Bouwmeester (4), J. Schwartz (10)
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +16 pts
    2-2
    19:19

3rd period

  1. STL
    C. Parayko(7)
    V. Dunn (9), T. Bozak (9)
    slapxG 0.01win prob +29 pts
    2-3
    11:00
  2. COL
    J. Compher(8)PPG
    N. MacKinnon (28), M. Rantanen (40)
    wristxG 0.21win prob +32 pts
    3-3
    13:10

Overtime

  1. STL
    R. O'Reilly(13)SHG
    R. Bortuzzo (2)
    wristxG 0.25win prob +49 pts
    3-4
    2:05

Penalties

COL 11 PIM·STL 17 PIM

1st

  • 10:00STLBrayden Schenn · Fightingdrawn by J.T. Compher5 min
  • 10:00COLJ.T. Compher · Fightingdrawn by Brayden Schenn5 min
  • 14:10STLDavid Perron · High sticking double minordrawn by Patrik Nemeth4 min

2nd

  • 0:35COLNikita Zadorov · Slashingdrawn by Ryan O'Reilly2 min
  • 6:27COLGabriel Landeskog · Trippingdrawn by Vladimir Tarasenko2 min
  • 13:21STLIvan Barbashev · Trippingdrawn by Samuel Girard2 min
  • 16:45STLPatrick Maroon · Hookingdrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min

3rd

  • 8:56COLserved by S. Andrighetto · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 11:41STLJay Bouwmeester · Hookingdrawn by Gabriel Landeskog2 min

OT

  • 1:31STLVladimir Tarasenko · Illegal stick2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
STL goalCOL goalFinal: STL 100%

Biggest swing: Ryan O'Reilly, OT 2:05 — STL 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. O'Reilly · Goal · xG 0.25R. Bortuzzo · On goal · xG 0.19J. Schwartz · On goal · xG 0.12I. Barbashev · Goal · xG 0.12B. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.12R. O'Reilly · Missed · xG 0.12R. Thomas · On goal · xG 0.11J. Schwartz · On goal · xG 0.11V. Dunn · On goal · xG 0.10V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.10D. Perron · Missed · xG 0.10P. Maroon · On goal · xG 0.09J. Nolan · On goal · xG 0.08V. Tarasenko · Missed · xG 0.07R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.07C. Parayko · On goal · xG 0.06P. Maroon · On goal · xG 0.06O. Sundqvist · Missed · xG 0.05V. Dunn · Missed · xG 0.05D. Perron · On goal · xG 0.05A. Steen · On goal · xG 0.04V. Dunn · Missed · xG 0.03P. Maroon · On goal · xG 0.03J. Schwartz · On goal · xG 0.03C. Parayko · On goal · xG 0.03V. Dunn · On goal · xG 0.02O. Sundqvist · On goal · xG 0.02C. Parayko · Goal · xG 0.02T. Bozak · On goal · xG 0.02C. Parayko · Goal · xG 0.01C. Parayko · Missed · xG 0.01R. O'Reilly · Missed · xG 0.01C. Parayko · Missed · xG 0.01C. Parayko · On goal · xG 0.01J. Nolan · On goal · xG 0.01J. Schwartz · Missed · xG 0.01J. Bouwmeester · On goal · xG 0.01C. Parayko · Missed · xG 0.00J. Nolan · Missed · xG 0.00R. Bortuzzo · On goal · xG 0.00
STL4 G · 2.4 xG · 40 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsSTL
3.53 G
All situations
4 G2.4
2.32 G
Even strength
3 G1.8
1.21 G
Power play
0 G0.3
0.00 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 93 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL69%31%STL

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.50 – 2.36

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsSTL
42
Shots on goal
28
59%
Faceoffs
41%
1/6
Power play
0/3
11
Penalty minutes
17
17
Hits
17
15
Blocked shots
15
3
Giveaways
7
5
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
29N. MacKinnonC011-260.440105225:47
96M. RantanenR011-260.2621010025:19
92G. LandeskogL000-280.501125623:33
4T. BarrieD000-130.26000—23:18
28I. ColeD000-110.06140—22:42
6E. JohnsonD000-210.03000—20:01
34C. SoderbergC011+130.461008017:23
49S. GirardD000+120.02010—16:31
37J. CompherL112+110.210055816:12
12P. NemethD000+110.05220—15:46
83M. NietoL011000.000005014:24
16N. ZadorovD000-110.04402—14:22
22C. WilsonC000-110.013103313:51
11M. CalvertL101+110.4210010013:06
17T. JostC011+130.23000012:38
10S. AndrighettoR101030.40020—12:34
57G. BourqueL000-210.1222010007:43
24A. GreerL000-100.00000—06:00
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31P. Grubauer(O)28244.8572.38-1.6261:44

Season series

STL leads 4-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).