Bruins at Maple Leafs 3-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Boston Bruins

▸3

Toronto Maple Leafs

FinalTV NBCSN, NESN·Air Canada Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Boston Bruins beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 3-1. The Bruins scored first and never trailed. The Bruins led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Brad Marchand's goal at 16:55 of the second period, which took the Bruins' chances from 47% to 70%. Expected goals were close — BOS 2.5, TOR 2.4; shots on goal were BOS 21, TOR 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 62% of the time. Tuukka Rask stopped 31 of 32 (.969), 1.4 goals saved above expected; Frederik Andersen stopped 18 of 21 (.857), 1.2 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Tuukka Rask (31 saves, .969), 2. David Pastrnak (2 A), 3. Tomas Plekanec (1 G).

Three stars

★
T. Rask31 saves, .969
★★
D. Pastrnak2 A
★★★
T. Plekanec1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BOS	17	19	15	321
TOR	112	010	010	132

Scoring

4 goals

1st period

T. Krug(1)
K. Miller (1), D. Pastrnak (6)
slapxG 0.01win prob +12 pts
1-0
0:28
T. Plekanec(1)
P. Marleau (1), M. Marner (4)
wristxG 0.07win prob +13 pts
1-1
7:43

2nd period

B. Marchand(2)
D. Pastrnak (7), A. McQuaid (1)
snapxG 0.11win prob +22 pts
2-1
16:55

3rd period

J. DeBrusk(2)
D. Krejci (2)
wristxG 0.10win prob +17 pts
3-1
4:17

Penalties

2 PIM·

0 PIM

1st

15:08Jake DeBrusk · Hookingdrawn by William Nylander2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: TOR

Biggest swing: Brad Marchand, 2nd 16:55 — BOS 47% → 70%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 2.4 xG · 50 att

←

attacks

attacks →

3 G · 2.5 xG · 31 att TOR

1 G · 2.4 xG · 50 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.53 G
All situations: 1 G2.4; 1.83 G
Even strength: 1 G2.3; 0.00 G
Power play: 0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 81 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

38%62%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.78 – 2.39

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

21
Shots on goal: 32; 37%
Faceoffs: 63%; 0/0
Power play: 0/1; 2
Penalty minutes: 0; 40
Hits: 26; 27
Blocked shots: 9; 16
Giveaways: 11; 2
Takeaways: 8

Box score

every player line

Boston Bruins skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
33Z. CharaD	0	0	0	+2	2	0.08	4	3	0	—	26:43
73C. McAvoyD	0	0	0	+2	0	0.00	5	3	0	—	23:05
63B. MarchandL	1	0	1	+1	2	0.31	1	0	0	—	20:25
20R. NashC	0	0	0	0	1	0.13	1	1	0	48	19:10
86K. MillerD	0	1	1	0	2	0.04	3	3	0	—	19:00
88D. PastrnakR	0	2	2	+1	2	0.92	2	0	0	—	18:49
47T. KrugD	1	0	1	0	2	0.05	0	4	0	—	18:21
54A. McQuaidD	0	1	1	0	0	0.02	2	3	0	—	17:35
48M. GrzelcykD	0	0	0	0	0	0.02	1	1	0	—	15:16
52S. KuralyC	0	0	0	+1	3	0.12	2	0	0	29	14:44
42D. BackesR	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	2	1	0	43	14:08
43D. HeinenL	0	0	0	0	1	0.14	0	2	0	—	13:55
46D. KrejciC	0	1	1	+1	0	0.10	0	1	0	21	13:07
55N. AcciariC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	0	0	50	13:06
57T. WingelsC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4	4	0	0	12:55
61R. NashL	0	0	0	+1	3	0.16	1	0	0	—	12:51
59T. SchallerL	0	0	0	0	0	0.15	3	1	0	50	12:36
74J. DeBruskL	1	0	1	+1	2	0.26	7	0	2	—	12:14

Boston Bruins goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
40T. Rask(W)	32	31	1	.969	2.41	+1.41	60:00

Series

BOS leads 4-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Boston Bruins at Toronto Maple Leafs

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

1st

Box score