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Sabres at Lightning
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
5
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸7
FinalTV SUN, MSG-B·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Buffalo Sabres 7-5. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Sabres led 5-4 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Anthony Cirelli's goal at 6:15 of the third period, which took the Lightning's chances from 24% to 52%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 2.6 to 1.9; shots on goal were BUF 32, TBL 34. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 54% of the time. Chad Johnson stopped 27 of 33 (.818), 3.9 goals below expected; Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 27 of 32 (.844), 3.1 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Alex Killorn (3 A), 2. Yanni Gourde (1 G, 2 A), 3. Anthony Cirelli (2 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    A. Killorn3 A
  2. ★★
    TBL
    Y. Gourde1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    A. Cirelli2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF2931607532
TBLTBL31315316734

Scoring

12 goals

1st period

  1. TBL
    A. Cirelli(4)
    Y. Gourde (38)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +11 pts
    0-1
    0:30
  2. BUF
    C. Mittelstadt(1)PPG
    M. Scandella (17), E. Rodrigues (16)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +9 pts
    1-1
    2:57
  3. TBL
    N. Kucherov(39)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.08win prob +12 pts
    1-2
    4:35
  4. BUF
    A. Nylander(1)
    B. Guhle (3), R. Ristolainen (35)
    tip-inxG 0.06win prob +12 pts
    2-2
    6:32
  5. TBL
    Y. Gourde(25)
    A. Killorn (30)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +13 pts
    2-3
    9:40

2nd period

  1. TBL
    D. Girardi(6)
    N. Kucherov (61), O. Palat (24)
    slapxG 0.10win prob +15 pts
    2-4
    1:04
  2. BUF
    J. Pominville(15)
    B. Guhle (4), E. Rodrigues (17)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +15 pts
    3-4
    8:59
  3. BUF
    J. Nolan(4)
    J. Larsson (13)
    wrap-aroundxG 0.08win prob +21 pts
    4-4
    15:58
  4. BUF
    K. Okposo(15)PPG
    J. Eichel (38), R. O'Reilly (37)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +19 pts
    5-4
    18:45

3rd period

  1. TBL
    A. Cirelli(5)
    A. Killorn (31), M. Sergachev (31)
    tip-inxG 0.08win prob +28 pts
    5-5
    6:15
  2. TBL
    B. Point(32)
    A. Killorn (32), Y. Gourde (39)
    slapxG 0.11win prob +28 pts
    5-6
    7:02
  3. TBL
    V. Hedman(17)EN
    A. Vasilevskiy (2)
    wristxG 0.50win prob +6 pts
    5-7
    18:34

Penalties

BUF 6 PIM·TBL 10 PIM

1st

  • 1:16TBLVictor Hedman · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 17:22TBLCory Conacher · High stickingdrawn by Evan Rodrigues2 min

2nd

  • 4:24BUFMarco Scandella · Roughingdrawn by Yanni Gourde2 min
  • 4:24BUFMarco Scandella · Roughingdrawn by Yanni Gourde2 min
  • 9:55TBLJ.T. Miller · High stickingdrawn by Rasmus Ristolainen2 min
  • 17:46TBLAlex Killorn · Hookingdrawn by Rasmus Ristolainen2 min
  • 19:50BUFMarco Scandella · High stickingdrawn by Nikita Kucherov2 min

3rd

  • 8:19TBLCory Conacher · Trippingdrawn by Evan Rodrigues2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalBUF goalFinal: TBL 100%

Biggest swing: Anthony Cirelli, 3rd 6:15 — TBL 24% → 52%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
V. Hedman · Goal · xG 0.50A. Cirelli · Goal · xG 0.16O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.13B. Point · Missed · xG 0.12Y. Gourde · Goal · xG 0.12B. Point · Goal · xG 0.11C. Kunitz · Missed · xG 0.11A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.10A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.10D. Girardi · Goal · xG 0.10A. Cirelli · Goal · xG 0.08N. Kucherov · Goal · xG 0.08C. Conacher · On goal · xG 0.08A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.07N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.05A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.05T. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.04C. Paquette · On goal · xG 0.04M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.04B. Coburn · Missed · xG 0.04Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.03M. Sergachev · Missed · xG 0.03A. Killorn · Missed · xG 0.03Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.03R. Callahan · On goal · xG 0.03Y. Gourde · Missed · xG 0.03A. Killorn · Missed · xG 0.03V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.03C. Paquette · Missed · xG 0.02T. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.02N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.02A. Stralman · On goal · xG 0.02R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.02O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.02M. Sergachev · Missed · xG 0.02D. Girardi · On goal · xG 0.02B. Coburn · Missed · xG 0.02A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.01V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.01O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.01N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.01A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.00J. Miller · On goal · xG 0.00R. Callahan · On goal · xG 0.00
TBL7 G · 2.6 xG · 44 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsTBL
1.95 G
All situations
6 G2.6
1.23 G
Even strength
6 G1.8
0.62 G
Power play
0 G0.3
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 85 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF46%54%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.88 – 2.11

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsTBL
32
Shots on goal
34
48%
Faceoffs
52%
2/5
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
10
28
Hits
20
11
Blocked shots
11
7
Giveaways
8
3
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
55R. RistolainenD011-240.10410—26:52
15J. EichelC011-240.512103621:39
6M. ScandellaD011-310.06326—20:27
90R. O'ReillyC011-420.063005319:36
8C. NelsonD000-300.00200—19:30
45B. GuhleD022-210.07320—19:15
21K. OkposoR101-220.12000—18:40
23S. ReinhartC000-410.12000017:43
20S. WilsonC000-220.04210017:27
22J. LarssonL011010.023006015:43
29J. PominvilleR101+120.08000—15:10
41J. FalkD000+100.00130—14:26
71E. RodriguesC022020.140003314:17
37C. MittelstadtC101+140.100006713:32
13N. BaptisteR000+110.11200—11:21
82N. BeaulieuD000+120.02200—11:01
92A. NylanderL101-310.06000—10:29
17J. NolanC101+120.32110008:58
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31C. Johnson(L)33276.8182.11-3.8957:54

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).