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Sabres at Lightning
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
▸2
Tampa Bay Lightning
1
Final/OTTV SUN, MSG-B·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 2-1 in overtime, Jason Pominville scoring at 1:26. The Lightning scored first; the Sabres answered. The Lightning led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jason Pominville's goal at 1:26 of overtime, which took the Sabres' chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 2.2 to 1.8; shots on goal were BUF 34, TBL 22. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 58% of the time. Chad Johnson stopped 21 of 22 (.955), 0.8 goals saved above expected; Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 32 of 34 (.941). Three stars: 1. Jason Pominville (1 G, 1 A), 2. Chad Johnson (21 saves, .955), 3. Andrei Vasilevskiy (32 saves, .941).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    J. Pominville1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    BUF
    C. Johnson21 saves, .955
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    A. Vasilevskiy32 saves, .941

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
BUFBUF0110911014234
TBLTBL160601000122

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

  1. TBL
    C. Conacher(7)
    D. Girardi (10), Y. Gourde (27)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +15 pts
    0-1
    18:03

3rd period

  1. BUF
    E. Rodrigues(6)
    J. Pominville (14)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +32 pts
    1-1
    11:47

Overtime

  1. BUF
    J. Pominville(10)PPG
    R. Ristolainen (25), R. O'Reilly (28)
    slapxG 0.09win prob +51 pts
    2-1
    1:26

Penalties

BUF 2 PIM·TBL 18 PIM

1st

  • 14:42TBLCory Conacher · Hookingdrawn by Johan Larsson2 min

3rd

  • 4:57TBLYanni Gourde · Hookingdrawn by Johan Larsson2 min
  • 8:06BUFJustin Falk · Slashingdrawn by Tyler Johnson2 min
  • 14:53TBLJ.T. Miller · Trippingdrawn by Marco Scandella2 min
  • 19:40TBLAdam Erne · Illegal check to headdrawn by Johan Larsson2 min

OT

  • 1:26TBLAndrei Vasilevskiy · Misconduct10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalBUF goalFinal: TBL 0%

Biggest swing: Jason Pominville, OT 1:26 — BUF 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Conacher · Goal · xG 0.19B. Point · Missed · xG 0.14A. Erne · On goal · xG 0.14S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.12B. Point · On goal · xG 0.12T. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.10J. Miller · Missed · xG 0.10S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.10C. Conacher · On goal · xG 0.09A. Erne · On goal · xG 0.08A. Killorn · Missed · xG 0.07Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.06S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.06A. Erne · Missed · xG 0.06T. Johnson · Missed · xG 0.05M. Sergachev · Missed · xG 0.04Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.04M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.03C. Paquette · Missed · xG 0.03R. Callahan · On goal · xG 0.02A. Erne · On goal · xG 0.02D. Girardi · Missed · xG 0.02A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.02A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.01B. Coburn · On goal · xG 0.01B. Coburn · On goal · xG 0.01A. Stralman · Missed · xG 0.01A. Stralman · On goal · xG 0.01D. Girardi · Missed · xG 0.01S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.01C. Conacher · On goal · xG 0.01A. Stralman · On goal · xG 0.01B. Point · Missed · xG 0.01V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.00
TBL1 G · 1.8 xG · 34 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsTBL
2.22 G
All situations
1 G1.8
1.41 G
Even strength
1 G1.4
0.81 G
Power play
0 G0.4
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 83 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF58%42%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.19 – 1.80

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsTBL
34
Shots on goal
22
50%
Faceoffs
50%
1/4
Power play
0/1
2
Penalty minutes
18
16
Hits
30
16
Blocked shots
13
3
Giveaways
12
7
Takeaways
13

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
55R. RistolainenD011020.12120—28:28
6M. ScandellaD000020.11100—25:37
90R. O'ReillyC011020.200004124:57
23S. ReinhartC000040.23000024:08
28Z. GirgensonsC000020.122003320:54
93V. AntipinD000-110.01020—19:44
8C. NelsonD000-100.00120—18:42
29J. PominvilleR112+170.41200—18:19
71E. RodriguesC101+150.380106315:36
20S. WilsonC000+120.12010014:16
82N. BeaulieuD000+110.02130—13:34
67B. PouliotL000020.03010—12:58
22J. LarssonL000000.021206912:52
13N. BaptisteR000030.26100—12:32
41J. FalkD000+100.00112—12:09
25S. GriffithC000-100.05110010:12
10J. JosefsonC000-110.041003310:04
17J. NolanC000-100.10300008:45
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31C. Johnson(W)22211.9551.83+0.8361:23

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).