Lightning at Sabres 2-0 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Tampa Bay Lightning

▸2

Buffalo Sabres

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Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Buffalo Sabres 2-0. The Lightning scored first and never trailed. The Lightning led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Dan Girardi's goal at 12:08 of the second period, which took the Lightning's chances from 67% to 84%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 2.4 to 2.0; shots on goal were TBL 26, BUF 34. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 34 of 34 (1.000), 2.0 goals saved above expected; Robin Lehner stopped 24 of 26 (.923). Three stars: 1. Andrei Vasilevskiy (34 saves, 1.000), 2. Mikhail Sergachev (1 G), 3. Victor Hedman.

Three stars

★
A. Vasilevskiy34 saves, 1.000
★★
M. Sergachev1 G
★★★
V. Hedman

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TBL	19	110	07	226
BUF	010	011	013	034

Scoring

2 goals

1st period

M. Sergachev(6)PPG
T. Johnson (7), O. Palat (8)
slapxG 0.04win prob +12 pts
1-0
16:29

2nd period

D. Girardi(1)
V. Namestnikov (13), N. Kucherov (18)
wristxG 0.02win prob +17 pts
2-0
12:08

Penalties

6 PIM·

6 PIM

1st

15:33Jordan Nolan · Hookingdrawn by Victor Hedman2 min

2nd

1:58Steven Stamkos · Hookingdrawn by Justin Falk2 min
18:47Braydon Coburn · Interferencedrawn by Rasmus Ristolainen2 min

3rd

4:59Tyler Johnson · Trippingdrawn by Jordan Nolan2 min
10:33Nathan Beaulieu · Slashingdrawn by Ryan Callahan2 min
11:01Rasmus Ristolainen · High stickingdrawn by Steven Stamkos2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: BUF

Biggest swing: Dan Girardi, 2nd 12:08 — TBL 67% → 84%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

0 G · 2.0 xG · 47 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 2.4 xG · 40 att BUF

0 G · 2.0 xG · 47 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.42 G
All situations: 0 G2.0; 1.31 G
Even strength: 0 G0.7; 0.71 G
Power play: 0 G1.3; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 87 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

51%49%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.03 – 1.98

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

26
Shots on goal: 34; 44%
Faceoffs: 56%; 1/3
Power play: 0/3; 6
Penalty minutes: 6; 12
Hits: 23; 11
Blocked shots: 9; 1
Giveaways: 5; 1
Takeaways: 5

Box score

every player line

Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
77V. HedmanD	0	0	0	+1	4	0.17	2	3	0	—	26:19
21B. PointC	0	0	0	0	1	0.11	0	0	0	52	22:33
6A. StralmanD	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	1	1	0	—	21:05
86N. KucherovR	0	1	1	+1	4	0.69	0	0	0	—	20:54
37Y. GourdeC	0	0	0	0	2	0.14	2	0	0	50	19:53
55B. CoburnD	0	0	0	0	1	0.10	0	1	2	—	17:59
17A. KillornL	0	0	0	0	3	0.06	1	0	0	—	17:30
9T. JohnsonC	0	1	1	0	0	0.13	0	0	2	36	17:10
18O. PalatL	0	1	1	0	2	0.31	0	1	0	—	15:22
5D. GirardiD	1	0	1	+1	1	0.02	0	2	0	—	15:22
91S. StamkosC	0	0	0	+1	0	0.12	0	2	2	40	14:25
90V. NamestnikovC	0	1	1	+1	1	0.01	0	1	0	20	14:22
62A. SustrD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	—	13:03
14C. KunitzL	0	0	0	0	2	0.17	0	0	0	—	13:01
24R. CallahanR	0	0	0	0	0	0.26	3	0	0	—	12:41
98M. SergachevD	1	0	1	0	1	0.06	0	0	0	—	12:38
13C. PaquetteC	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	1	0	0	67	10:11
29S. KoekkoekD	0	0	0	0	2	0.07	2	0	0	—	09:42

Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(W)	34	34	0	1.000	2.00	+2.00	59:50

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres

1st period

2nd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score