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Avalanche at Ducks
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Anaheim Ducks

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
3
Anaheim Ducks
▸4
Final/OTTV PRIME, ALT·Honda Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Anaheim Ducks beat the Colorado Avalanche 4-3 in overtime, Ondrej Kase scoring at 1:34. The Ducks came back from two goals down. The Avalanche led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Ondrej Kase's goal at 1:34 of overtime, which took the Ducks' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Ducks, 3.0 to 2.0; shots on goal were COL 31, ANA 42. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Ducks win a replay of these chances 66% of the time. Jonathan Bernier stopped 38 of 42 (.905), 1.0 goals below expected; Ryan Miller stopped 19 of 21 (.905). Three stars: 1. Ondrej Kase (1 G), 2. Andrew Cogliano (1 G, 1 A), 3. Ryan Kesler (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    ANA
    O. Kase1 G
  2. ★★
    ANA
    A. Cogliano1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    ANA
    R. Kesler1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
COLCOL1102801201331
ANAANA1160152912442

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    A. Kerfoot(18)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.02win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    1:16
  2. ANA
    A. Cogliano(10)
    J. Silfverberg (19)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +13 pts
    1-1
    6:08

2nd period

  1. COL
    T. Jost(11)PPG
    G. Landeskog (35), N. MacKinnon (56)
    backhandxG 0.07win prob +14 pts
    2-1
    1:04
  2. COL
    T. Jost(12)
    A. Kerfoot (24)
    slapxG 0.09win prob +17 pts
    3-1
    12:10

3rd period

  1. ANA
    A. Henrique(23)
    C. Perry (30), B. Montour (23)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +15 pts
    3-2
    7:43
  2. ANA
    R. Kesler(8)
    A. Cogliano (22), J. Silfverberg (20)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +31 pts
    3-3
    9:19

Overtime

  1. ANA
    O. Kase(19)
    R. Getzlaf (47)
    wristxG 0.20win prob +49 pts
    3-4
    1:34

Penalties

COL 8 PIM·ANA 12 PIM

1st

  • 3:41COLNikita Zadorov · Hookingdrawn by Ondrej Kase2 min
  • 7:44ANAHampus Lindholm · Interferencedrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min
  • 12:13COLNikita Zadorov · Trippingdrawn by Ryan Kesler2 min
  • 12:13ANARyan Kesler · Embellishmentdrawn by Nikita Zadorov2 min
  • 19:54ANAHampus Lindholm · Interferencedrawn by Sven Andrighetto2 min

2nd

  • 4:36ANARyan Kesler · High stickingdrawn by Mark Alt2 min
  • 7:57COLMikko Rantanen · Interferencedrawn by Brandon Montour2 min
  • 7:57COLGabriel Landeskog · Roughingdrawn by Corey Perry2 min
  • 7:57ANACorey Perry · Roughingdrawn by Gabriel Landeskog2 min
  • 19:26ANABrandon Montour · Hookingdrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
ANA goalCOL goalFinal: ANA 100%

Biggest swing: Ondrej Kase, OT 1:34 — ANA 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
O. Kase · Goal · xG 0.20N. Ritchie · On goal · xG 0.18R. Getzlaf · On goal · xG 0.17R. Kesler · Goal · xG 0.15A. Henrique · Missed · xG 0.13A. Cogliano · Goal · xG 0.12N. Ritchie · Missed · xG 0.12R. Kesler · Missed · xG 0.10A. Henrique · Goal · xG 0.09D. Grant · On goal · xG 0.09R. Kesler · On goal · xG 0.08A. Cogliano · On goal · xG 0.07A. Henrique · Missed · xG 0.07R. Rakell · Missed · xG 0.07O. Kase · Missed · xG 0.07R. Kesler · On goal · xG 0.06R. Kesler · Missed · xG 0.06R. Getzlaf · Missed · xG 0.06J. Chimera · On goal · xG 0.06H. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.05R. Rakell · On goal · xG 0.05R. Rakell · On goal · xG 0.05C. Fowler · On goal · xG 0.05O. Kase · On goal · xG 0.05J. Manson · On goal · xG 0.05D. Grant · On goal · xG 0.05R. Getzlaf · Missed · xG 0.05R. Getzlaf · Missed · xG 0.04C. Fowler · On goal · xG 0.04R. Getzlaf · On goal · xG 0.04O. Kase · On goal · xG 0.04C. Fowler · Missed · xG 0.04C. Fowler · On goal · xG 0.03J. Silfverberg · On goal · xG 0.03R. Rakell · On goal · xG 0.03J. Brown · Missed · xG 0.03H. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.03B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.03H. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.03B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.02F. Beauchemin · On goal · xG 0.02J. Manson · On goal · xG 0.02J. Manson · On goal · xG 0.02R. Rakell · On goal · xG 0.01A. Cogliano · Missed · xG 0.01C. Perry · On goal · xG 0.01R. Getzlaf · On goal · xG 0.01C. Perry · On goal · xG 0.01F. Beauchemin · Missed · xG 0.01C. Fowler · On goal · xG 0.01J. Brown · On goal · xG 0.01J. Silfverberg · On goal · xG 0.01A. Cogliano · On goal · xG 0.01B. Montour · Missed · xG 0.00R. Getzlaf · Missed · xG 0.00H. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.00R. Getzlaf · On goal · xG 0.00A. Cogliano · On goal · xG 0.00
ANA4 G · 3.0 xG · 58 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsANA
2.03 G
All situations
4 G3.0
1.82 G
Even strength
4 G2.4
0.21 G
Power play
0 G0.5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 100 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL34%66%ANA

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.03 – 2.96

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsANA
31
Shots on goal
42
38%
Faceoffs
62%
1/4
Power play
0/2
8
Penalty minutes
12
19
Hits
28
21
Blocked shots
15
9
Giveaways
10
5
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4T. BarrieD000020.11040—25:31
12P. NemethD000-110.07020—23:48
29N. MacKinnonC011-230.330004322:02
16N. ZadorovD000020.08534—21:18
92G. LandeskogL011-330.172226920:27
96M. RantanenR000-320.25022—20:07
49S. GirardD000-220.09000—20:06
14B. ComeauL000-110.01210—18:54
34C. SoderbergC000-110.071004418:29
83M. NietoL000-110.16010—17:31
17T. JostC202+230.20200016:07
10S. AndrighettoR000+130.19200—13:29
7M. AltD000010.03100—12:07
5D. WarsofskyD000030.04020—11:52
13A. KerfootC112+210.081102911:24
37J. CompherL000000.001101410:00
64N. YakupovR000+120.14000—08:06
57G. BourqueL000000.00220—07:24
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
45J. Bernier(O)42384.9052.97-1.0361:34

Season series

COL leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).