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Lightning at Islanders
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸7
New York Islanders
6
FinalTV MSG+, SUN·Barclays Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the New York Islanders 7-6. The Lightning scored first and never trailed. The Lightning led 7-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was J.T. Miller's goal at 8:27 of the second period, which took the Lightning's chances from 65% to 82%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 3.1 to 2.8; shots on goal were TBL 36, NYI 41. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 55% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 35 of 41 (.854), 3.1 goals below expected; Christopher Gibson stopped 18 of 24 (.750), 3.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Brayden Point (1 G, 2 A), 2. Jordan Eberle (3 A), 3. J.T. Miller (2 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    B. Point1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    NYI
    J. Eberle3 A
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    J. Miller2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL316410010736
NYINYI111216314641

Scoring

13 goals

1st period

  1. TBL
    A. Cirelli(3)
    B. Coburn (11), Y. Gourde (33)
    wrap-aroundxG 0.03win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    2:09
  2. TBL
    T. Johnson(21)
    C. Kunitz (13), M. Sergachev (28)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +15 pts
    2-0
    2:35
  3. NYI
    R. Pulock(8)PPG
    J. Eberle (27), J. Tavares (44)
    snapxG 0.16win prob +16 pts
    2-1
    10:24
  4. TBL
    V. Hedman(14)
    B. Point (32), O. Palat (23)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +4 pts
    3-1
    14:17

2nd period

  1. TBL
    B. Point(28)SHG
    A. Cirelli (5), R. McDonagh (25)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +13 pts
    4-1
    2:43
  2. NYI
    R. Pulock(9)PPG
    A. Beauvillier (12), J. Eberle (28)
    snapxG 0.07win prob +9 pts
    4-2
    3:20
  3. NYI
    A. Lee(37)
    J. Bailey (50)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +17 pts
    4-3
    5:15
  4. TBL
    J. Miller(19)
    S. Stamkos (59), B. Coburn (12)
    wristxG 0.19win prob +17 pts
    5-3
    8:27
  5. TBL
    M. Sergachev(9)PPG
    Y. Gourde (34), B. Point (33)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +9 pts
    6-3
    11:22
  6. TBL
    J. Miller(20)PPG
    N. Kucherov (58), V. Hedman (41)
    wristxG 0.19win prob +2 pts
    7-3
    18:20

3rd period

  1. NYI
    A. Lee(38)PPG
    J. Bailey (51), J. Tavares (45)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +2 pts
    7-4
    1:35
  2. NYI
    A. Beauvillier(15)
    J. Eberle (29)
    backhandxG 0.08win prob +7 pts
    7-5
    3:21
  3. NYI
    A. Beauvillier(16)
    J. Boychuk (11), M. Barzal (56)
    tip-inxG 0.02win prob +16 pts
    7-6
    4:36

Penalties

TBL 10 PIM·NYI 8 PIM

1st

  • 8:54NYIAdam Pelech · Trippingdrawn by Brayden Point2 min
  • 9:03TBLVictor Hedman · Hookingdrawn by Casey Cizikas2 min
  • 9:58TBLNikita Kucherov · Elbowingdrawn by Mathew Barzal2 min
  • 12:08TBLserved by N. Kucherov · Too many men on the icedrawn by Tanner Fritz2 min
  • 19:49NYIAndrew Ladd · Interferencedrawn by Alex Killorn2 min

2nd

  • 1:56TBLserved by M. Sergachev · Too many men on the icedrawn by Anders Lee2 min
  • 10:00NYIAnders Lee · Hookingdrawn by Ryan McDonagh2 min
  • 17:34NYIThomas Hickey · Hookingdrawn by Yanni Gourde2 min
  • 19:42TBLVictor Hedman · Trippingdrawn by Tanner Fritz2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NYI goalTBL goalFinal: NYI 0%

Biggest swing: J.T. Miller, 2nd 8:27 — TBL 65% → 82%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Pulock · Goal · xG 0.16J. Eberle · On goal · xG 0.16C. Wagner · On goal · xG 0.14R. Pulock · Missed · xG 0.14C. Wagner · On goal · xG 0.12A. Pelech · On goal · xG 0.12J. Bailey · On goal · xG 0.11R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.11J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.11A. Lee · Goal · xG 0.10J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.10R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.09C. Clutterbuck · On goal · xG 0.09A. Lee · Goal · xG 0.09A. Beauvillier · Goal · xG 0.08J. Eberle · On goal · xG 0.08R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.07R. Pulock · Goal · xG 0.07J. Eberle · On goal · xG 0.07A. Lee · Missed · xG 0.07J. Eberle · On goal · xG 0.06A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.05A. Beauvillier · On goal · xG 0.05A. Pelech · Missed · xG 0.04B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.04J. Eberle · On goal · xG 0.04J. Boychuk · Missed · xG 0.03M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.03R. Pulock · Missed · xG 0.03M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.03N. Leddy · Missed · xG 0.03R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.03J. Boychuk · On goal · xG 0.02T. Hickey · Missed · xG 0.02T. Hickey · On goal · xG 0.02J. Eberle · Missed · xG 0.02J. Boychuk · Missed · xG 0.02T. Fritz · On goal · xG 0.02A. Beauvillier · Goal · xG 0.02A. Ladd · On goal · xG 0.02J. Bailey · On goal · xG 0.02T. Hickey · On goal · xG 0.02T. Hickey · On goal · xG 0.02T. Hickey · On goal · xG 0.02A. Pelech · On goal · xG 0.01R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.01R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.01R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.01T. Fritz · On goal · xG 0.01J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.00
NYI6 G · 2.8 xG · 50 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsNYI
3.17 G
All situations
6 G2.8
2.24 G
Even strength
3 G1.9
0.82 G
Power play
3 G1.0
0.11 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 95 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL55%45%NYI

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.13 – 2.83

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsNYI
36
Shots on goal
41
40%
Faceoffs
60%
2/4
Power play
3/5
10
Penalty minutes
8
10
Hits
19
18
Blocked shots
13
9
Giveaways
13
9
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77V. HedmanD112040.24114—23:23
6A. StralmanD000+130.18020—23:03
27R. McDonaghD011020.05030—21:34
21B. PointC123+230.310203720:06
91S. StamkosC011-210.040106719:14
10J. MillerC202030.593001419:01
9T. JohnsonC101+130.320005018:17
86N. KucherovR011040.73212—18:15
17A. KillornL000+130.23000—16:36
5D. GirardiD000-110.02220—16:28
71A. CirelliC112+240.260103116:14
18O. PalatL011000.00020—14:42
37Y. GourdeC022+110.07020013:57
55B. CoburnD022+210.00100—13:29
62A. SustrD000-120.04000—10:03
73A. ErneL000000.02000—09:45
14C. KunitzL011000.00110—09:44
98M. SergachevD112+310.04000—07:58
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(W)41356.8542.85-3.1559:48

Season series

TBL leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).