Skip to content
Islanders at Lightning
NHL

New York Islanders at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
New York Islanders
▸5
Tampa Bay Lightning
3
FinalTV MSG+, SUN·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The New York Islanders beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 5-3. The Islanders scored first and never trailed. The Islanders led 3-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Anders Lee's goal at 10:25 of the first period, which took the Islanders' chances from 60% to 75%. Expected goals were close — NYI 3.4, TBL 3.4; shots on goal were NYI 32, TBL 39. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 64% of the time. Thomas Greiss stopped 36 of 39 (.923); Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 27 of 31 (.871), 1.5 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Anders Lee (2 G), 2. Yanni Gourde (2 G), 3. John Tavares (1 G, 2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NYI
    A. Lee2 G
  2. ★★
    TBL
    Y. Gourde2 G
  3. ★★★
    NYI
    J. Tavares1 G, 2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NYINYI21011428532
TBLTBL012013314339

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. NYI
    A. Ladd(4)
    J. Tavares (7), J. Ho-Sang (5)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    0:51
  2. NYI
    A. Lee(10)
    J. Tavares (8), J. Bailey (17)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +15 pts
    2-0
    10:25

2nd period

  1. NYI
    B. Nelson(6)
    J. Chimera (3), A. Pelech (6)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +10 pts
    3-0
    7:09

3rd period

  1. NYI
    A. Lee(11)PPG
    J. Bailey (18), M. Barzal (14)
    backhandxG 0.09win prob +2 pts
    4-0
    1:05
  2. TBL
    Y. Gourde(5)
    B. Point (11), S. Koekkoek (2)
    backhandxG 0.11win prob +2 pts
    4-1
    3:13
  3. TBL
    O. Palat(5)
    B. Point (12), A. Vasilevskiy (1)
    snapxG 0.07win prob +7 pts
    4-2
    3:26
  4. TBL
    Y. Gourde(6)
    O. Palat (7), D. Girardi (4)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +9 pts
    4-3
    16:24
  5. NYI
    J. Tavares(14)EN
    C. Cizikas (4), J. Bailey (19)
    wristxG 0.96win prob +5 pts
    5-3
    19:38

Penalties

NYI 2 PIM·TBL 4 PIM

1st

  • 13:59NYIJason Chimera · Slashingdrawn by Brayden Point2 min

2nd

  • 9:45TBLVictor Hedman · Hookingdrawn by John Tavares2 min
  • 19:19TBLVladislav Namestnikov · Cross checkingdrawn by Joshua Ho-Sang2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalNYI goalFinal: TBL 0%

Biggest swing: Anders Lee, 1st 10:25 — NYI 60% → 75%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Stralman · On goal · xG 0.29B. Point · On goal · xG 0.17N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.17O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.14Y. Gourde · Goal · xG 0.12V. Namestnikov · On goal · xG 0.12N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.11Y. Gourde · Goal · xG 0.11B. Point · Missed · xG 0.11N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.10B. Point · On goal · xG 0.10Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.09N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.09B. Point · Missed · xG 0.08A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.08B. Point · Missed · xG 0.07B. Point · Missed · xG 0.07V. Namestnikov · On goal · xG 0.07N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.07S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.07S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.07O. Palat · Goal · xG 0.06A. Killorn · Missed · xG 0.06S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.06Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.06V. Namestnikov · Missed · xG 0.06M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.06M. Sergachev · Missed · xG 0.05V. Namestnikov · On goal · xG 0.05V. Namestnikov · On goal · xG 0.04A. Stralman · On goal · xG 0.04R. Callahan · On goal · xG 0.04M. Sergachev · Missed · xG 0.04A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.04V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.03B. Coburn · On goal · xG 0.03V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.03B. Coburn · On goal · xG 0.03V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.03D. Girardi · On goal · xG 0.03J. Brown · Missed · xG 0.02C. Kunitz · Missed · xG 0.02S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.02V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.02A. Stralman · On goal · xG 0.02M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.02B. Coburn · On goal · xG 0.02J. Dotchin · Missed · xG 0.02A. Stralman · On goal · xG 0.02D. Girardi · Missed · xG 0.01M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.01V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.01J. Dotchin · On goal · xG 0.01A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.01B. Coburn · On goal · xG 0.01J. Dotchin · On goal · xG 0.00
TBL3 G · 3.4 xG · 56 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NYIvsTBL
3.44 G
All situations
3 G3.4
2.03 G
Even strength
3 G2.8
0.41 G
Power play
0 G0.6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 97 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NYI36%64%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.40 – 3.26

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NYIvsTBL
32
Shots on goal
39
43%
Faceoffs
57%
1/2
Power play
0/1
2
Penalty minutes
4
23
Hits
24
17
Blocked shots
15
3
Giveaways
9
11
Takeaways
2

Box score

every player line
New York Islanders skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
2N. LeddyD000050.14110—23:17
44C. de HaanD000030.08340—19:21
91J. TavaresC123011.081004218:47
13M. BarzalC011010.031002518:38
55J. BoychukD000+100.00120—18:35
50A. PelechD011000.02120—18:34
14T. HickeyD000+120.02110—18:19
12J. BaileyR033-110.11000—18:16
6R. PulockD000030.06320—18:09
27A. LeeL202-230.36110—17:34
16A. LaddL101+120.17300—16:49
7J. EberleR000010.03000—15:12
10A. QuineC000000.08120014:43
66J. Ho-SangR011+120.14000—14:21
53C. CizikasC011+120.123105514:16
72A. BeauvillierR000+110.060105011:08
29B. NelsonC101+120.31000011:05
25J. ChimeraL011+130.61302—10:56
New York Islanders goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1T. Greiss(W)39363.9233.39+0.3960:00

Season series

TBL leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).