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Predators at Jets
NHL

Nashville Predators at Winnipeg Jets

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
▸6
Winnipeg Jets
5
FinalTV FS-TN, TSN3·Bell MTS Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Winnipeg Jets 6-5. The Predators came back from two goals down. The Jets led 4-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Ryan Hartman's goal at 19:00 of the third period, which took the Predators' chances from 48% to 94%. Expected goals were close — NSH 2.7, WPG 2.7; shots on goal were NSH 32, WPG 39. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 50% of the time. Pekka Rinne stopped 34 of 39 (.872), 2.3 goals below expected; Connor Hellebuyck stopped 26 of 32 (.813), 3.3 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Roman Josi (5 A), 2. Paul Stastny (1 G, 1 A), 3. Craig Smith (2 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    R. Josi5 A
  2. ★★
    WPG
    P. Stastny1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    C. Smith2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NSHNSH01331039632
WPGWPG011413115539

Scoring

11 goals

2nd period

  1. WPG
    M. Hendricks(5)
    J. Armia (13), A. Copp (14)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +16 pts
    0-1
    2:45
  2. NSH
    C. Smith(19)
    R. Josi (30)
    wristxG 0.30win prob +18 pts
    1-1
    8:55
  3. WPG
    M. Scheifele(20)
    J. Roslovic (6), K. Connor (19)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +20 pts
    1-2
    12:41
  4. WPG
    M. Scheifele(21)PPG
    P. Stastny (29), B. Wheeler (55)
    snapxG 0.20win prob +12 pts
    1-3
    14:23
  5. NSH
    K. Turris(11)
    V. Arvidsson (21), R. Josi (31)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +15 pts
    2-3
    15:07
  6. NSH
    M. Ekholm(9)PPG
    C. Jarnkrok (17), R. Josi (32)
    snapxG 0.03win prob +21 pts
    3-3
    17:06
  7. WPG
    N. Ehlers(25)
    P. Laine (21), B. Chiarot (7)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +22 pts
    3-4
    17:39

3rd period

  1. WPG
    P. Stastny(13)
    N. Ehlers (23), P. Laine (22)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +14 pts
    3-5
    10:00
  2. NSH
    C. Smith(20)
    Y. Weber (3)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +12 pts
    4-5
    10:55
  3. NSH
    R. Johansen(9)
    V. Arvidsson (22), R. Josi (33)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +35 pts
    5-5
    13:57
  4. NSH
    R. Hartman(9)
    R. Josi (34)
    deflectedxG 0.15win prob +46 pts
    6-5
    19:00

Penalties

NSH 6 PIM·WPG 6 PIM

1st

  • 14:05NSHViktor Arvidsson · Trippingdrawn by Joe Morrow2 min

2nd

  • 10:13WPGMark Scheifele · Slashingdrawn by P.K. Subban2 min
  • 10:13NSHP.K. Subban · Roughingdrawn by Mark Scheifele2 min
  • 13:43NSHScott Hartnell · Hookingdrawn by Nikolaj Ehlers2 min
  • 15:07WPGserved by J. Roslovic · Delaying game bench2 min
  • 18:50WPGMark Scheifele · Hookingdrawn by Mattias Ekholm2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
WPG goalNSH goalFinal: WPG 0%

Biggest swing: Ryan Hartman, 3rd 19:00 — NSH 48% → 94%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Scheifele · Goal · xG 0.19P. Stastny · On goal · xG 0.19P. Stastny · On goal · xG 0.14M. Scheifele · Goal · xG 0.14N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.14B. Wheeler · On goal · xG 0.13J. Roslovic · Missed · xG 0.13D. Byfuglien · On goal · xG 0.12M. Scheifele · Missed · xG 0.09P. Stastny · Missed · xG 0.09M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.08N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.08N. Ehlers · Missed · xG 0.08P. Laine · Missed · xG 0.07N. Ehlers · Missed · xG 0.07M. Hendricks · Goal · xG 0.07B. Wheeler · On goal · xG 0.06K. Connor · Missed · xG 0.06D. Byfuglien · Missed · xG 0.06P. Laine · Missed · xG 0.06M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.06M. Perreault · On goal · xG 0.04B. Chiarot · On goal · xG 0.04N. Ehlers · Goal · xG 0.04P. Laine · On goal · xG 0.04D. Byfuglien · On goal · xG 0.03B. Wheeler · Missed · xG 0.03B. Wheeler · On goal · xG 0.03J. Armia · Missed · xG 0.03T. Myers · On goal · xG 0.03P. Stastny · Goal · xG 0.03J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.02J. Morrow · On goal · xG 0.02J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.02J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.02D. Byfuglien · Missed · xG 0.02J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.02B. Wheeler · On goal · xG 0.02B. Wheeler · On goal · xG 0.02M. Hendricks · On goal · xG 0.01D. Kulikov · On goal · xG 0.01M. Hendricks · On goal · xG 0.01D. Byfuglien · On goal · xG 0.01D. Byfuglien · Missed · xG 0.01M. Hendricks · On goal · xG 0.01P. Laine · On goal · xG 0.01T. Myers · On goal · xG 0.01D. Byfuglien · On goal · xG 0.01B. Wheeler · On goal · xG 0.01D. Kulikov · Missed · xG 0.01A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.00K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.00D. Byfuglien · On goal · xG 0.00
WPG5 G · 2.7 xG · 53 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsWPG
2.76 G
All situations
5 G2.7
2.65 G
Even strength
4 G1.9
0.11 G
Power play
1 G0.7
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 102 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH50%50%WPG

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.68 – 2.68

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsWPG
32
Shots on goal
39
43%
Faceoffs
57%
1/2
Power play
1/2
6
Penalty minutes
6
14
Hits
22
11
Blocked shots
24
7
Giveaways
18
6
Takeaways
11

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
76P. SubbanD000010.06212—26:52
59R. JosiD055+120.09130—24:43
4R. EllisD000+240.18000—23:46
14M. EkholmD101-120.13010—23:19
92R. JohansenC101020.050005718:00
15C. SmithC202+340.550006717:17
33V. ArvidssonL022010.16002—17:16
8K. TurrisC101+330.491005616:26
13N. BoninoC000-100.260102916:22
22K. FialaL000+220.09010—15:02
19C. JarnkrokC011-220.07000014:55
9F. ForsbergL000000.00110—14:42
38R. HartmanR101040.23200—13:29
10C. SissonsC000010.132004211:51
51A. WatsonL000010.14200—11:22
17S. HartnellL000-220.08322—10:37
7Y. WeberD011000.00000—09:58
25A. EmelinD000010.01010—09:23
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35P. Rinne(W)39345.8722.71-2.2960:00

Season series

NSH leads 3-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).