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Jets at Predators
NHL

Winnipeg Jets at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Winnipeg Jets
▸6
Nashville Predators
4
FinalTV FS-TN, TSN3·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Winnipeg Jets beat the Nashville Predators 6-4. The lead changed hands 4 times. The Jets led 4-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Brandon Tanev's goal at 18:34 of the third period, which took the Jets' chances from 48% to 93%. Expected goals favored the Jets, 4.7 to 2.5; shots on goal were WPG 36, NSH 34. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Jets win a replay of these chances 76% of the time. Connor Hellebuyck stopped 30 of 34 (.882), 1.5 goals below expected; Pekka Rinne stopped 30 of 35 (.857), 0.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Brandon Tanev (1 G, 1 A), 2. Calle Jarnkrok (1 G), 3. Kevin Fiala (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    WPG
    B. Tanev1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    NSH
    C. Jarnkrok1 G
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    K. Fiala1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
WPGWPG113313210636
NSHNSH21119114434

Scoring

10 goals

1st period

  1. WPG
    A. Lowry(6)
    T. Myers (12), B. Tanev (7)
    backhandxG 0.73win prob +13 pts
    1-0
    8:05
  2. NSH
    C. Jarnkrok(8)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.41win prob +16 pts
    1-1
    19:19
  3. NSH
    K. Fiala(9)
    C. Smith (10)
    snapxG 0.23win prob +15 pts
    1-2
    19:40

2nd period

  1. WPG
    P. Laine(17)
    D. Kulikov (7), B. Little (15)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +17 pts
    2-2
    6:54
  2. NSH
    P. Subban(7)PPG
    F. Forsberg (18), R. Johansen (17)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +13 pts
    2-3
    7:55
  3. WPG
    N. Ehlers(16)
    M. Scheifele (22), B. Wheeler (32)
    wristxG 0.42win prob +18 pts
    3-3
    8:25
  4. WPG
    N. Ehlers(17)PPG
    J. Armia (8), T. Myers (13)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +18 pts
    4-3
    16:00

3rd period

  1. NSH
    Y. Weber(1)
    K. Fiala (16)
    slapxG 0.10win prob +24 pts
    4-4
    0:30
  2. WPG
    B. Tanev(3)
    J. Morrissey (9), A. Lowry (4)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +45 pts
    5-4
    18:34
  3. WPG
    B. Wheeler(9)EN
    T. Myers (14)
    wristxG 0.44win prob +6 pts
    6-4
    19:58

Penalties

WPG 8 PIM·NSH 12 PIM

1st

  • 0:26NSHCraig Smith · Trippingdrawn by Andrew Copp2 min
  • 16:42WPGAndrew Copp · Interferencedrawn by Mattias Ekholm2 min

2nd

  • 0:27NSHMatt Irwin · Trippingdrawn by Brandon Tanev2 min
  • 1:28WPGPatrik Laine · Slashingdrawn by Mattias Ekholm2 min
  • 7:18WPGBrandon Tanev · Interferencedrawn by Kyle Turris2 min
  • 14:20NSHYannick Weber · Boardingdrawn by Andrew Copp2 min
  • 16:20NSHYannick Weber · Trippingdrawn by Brandon Tanev2 min

3rd

  • 9:33NSHAustin Watson · Embellishmentdrawn by Bryan Little2 min
  • 9:33WPGBryan Little · Slashingdrawn by Austin Watson2 min
  • 11:12NSHAlexei Emelin · Hookingdrawn by Nikolaj Ehlers2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalWPG goalFinal: NSH 0%

Biggest swing: Brandon Tanev, 3rd 18:34 — WPG 48% → 93%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Jarnkrok · Goal · xG 0.41C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.32K. Fiala · Goal · xG 0.23V. Arvidsson · Missed · xG 0.15F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.13C. Smith · Missed · xG 0.12Y. Weber · Goal · xG 0.10C. Sissons · On goal · xG 0.09K. Fiala · On goal · xG 0.07F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.06P. Subban · Missed · xG 0.06C. Sissons · On goal · xG 0.05M. Ekholm · Missed · xG 0.05P. Subban · Goal · xG 0.04M. Ekholm · Missed · xG 0.04A. Watson · On goal · xG 0.04P. Subban · On goal · xG 0.04A. Emelin · On goal · xG 0.04V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.03C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.03A. Emelin · Missed · xG 0.03K. Turris · On goal · xG 0.03K. Fiala · Missed · xG 0.03V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.03V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.03A. Watson · On goal · xG 0.03F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.02P. Aberg · On goal · xG 0.02R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.02C. Jarnkrok · Missed · xG 0.02R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.02M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.02V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.02M. Ekholm · Missed · xG 0.02M. Ekholm · Missed · xG 0.01M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.01R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.01K. Turris · On goal · xG 0.01C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.01F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.01K. Fiala · On goal · xG 0.01V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.01Y. Weber · On goal · xG 0.01P. Subban · On goal · xG 0.01Y. Weber · On goal · xG 0.00
NSH4 G · 2.5 xG · 45 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

WPGvsNSH
4.75 G
All situations
4 G2.5
3.54 G
Even strength
3 G2.3
0.81 G
Power play
1 G0.3
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 93 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
WPG76%24%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 4.16 – 2.53

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

WPGvsNSH
36
Shots on goal
34
54%
Faceoffs
46%
1/5
Power play
1/3
8
Penalty minutes
12
20
Hits
26
14
Blocked shots
10
8
Giveaways
9
7
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Winnipeg Jets skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
44J. MorrisseyD011-120.08070—23:45
8J. TroubaD000020.07110—23:27
57T. MyersD033+230.05010—22:55
5D. KulikovD011+220.07000—22:00
55M. ScheifeleC011040.411006121:56
26B. WheelerR112+130.67020—21:07
81K. ConnorL000020.33100—17:51
29P. LaineL101020.37112—16:49
17A. LowryC112+240.902005515:46
9A. CoppC000+210.08112015:06
27N. EhlersL202040.78100—14:50
13B. TanevL112+140.32502—14:11
18B. LittleC011000.170023113:28
40J. ArmiaR011020.23100—11:44
7B. ChiarotD000000.00000—10:59
85M. PerreaultC000010.05110010:28
15M. HendricksC000000.093007808:32
3T. PoolmanD000+100.00200—08:29
Winnipeg Jets goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
37C. Hellebuyck(W)34304.8822.54-1.4660:00

Season series

NSH leads 3-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).