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Rangers at Senators
NHL

New York Rangers at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
New York Rangers
3
Ottawa Senators
▸6
FinalTV MSG, TVAS·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the New York Rangers 6-3. The Senators scored first and never trailed. The Senators led 4-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Derick Brassard's goal at 18:53 of the second period, which took the Senators' chances from 75% to 90%. Expected goals favored the Rangers, 2.8 to 2.3; shots on goal were NYR 38, OTT 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Rangers win a replay of these chances 59% of the time. Henrik Lundqvist stopped 22 of 27 (.815), 3.4 goals below expected; Craig Anderson stopped 35 of 38 (.921). Three stars: 1. Derick Brassard (1 G, 2 A), 2. Matt Duchene (1 G, 1 A), 3. Thomas Chabot (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    D. Brassard1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    OTT
    M. Duchene1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    T. Chabot1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NYRNYR111113114338
OTTOTT21228213633

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    M. Stone(19)
    D. Brassard (17), Z. Smith (11)
    snapxG 0.11win prob +11 pts
    0-1
    1:03
  2. OTT
    J. Oduya(4)
    E. Karlsson (35), M. Duchene (22)
    snapxG 0.05win prob +14 pts
    0-2
    12:07
  3. NYR
    M. Grabner(24)
    R. Sproul (1), P. Buchnevich (20)
    wristxG 0.40win prob +14 pts
    1-2
    16:01

2nd period

  1. OTT
    M. Duchene(15)
    C. Ceci (9), T. Chabot (10)
    deflectedxG 0.10win prob +16 pts
    1-3
    11:59
  2. NYR
    M. Zibanejad(17)PPG
    M. Zuccarello (32), J. Miller (26)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +13 pts
    2-3
    14:31
  3. OTT
    D. Brassard(17)
    M. Borowiecki (5), Z. Smith (12)
    tip-inxG 0.13win prob +16 pts
    2-4
    18:53

3rd period

  1. OTT
    T. Chabot(5)
    D. Brassard (18), M. Stone (30)
    wrap-aroundxG 0.03win prob +4 pts
    2-5
    7:27
  2. NYR
    M. Grabner(25)
    K. Hayes (13)
    snapxG 0.10win prob +1 pts
    3-5
    15:11
  3. OTT
    M. Paajarvi(4)
    C. Ceci (10), J. Pageau (12)
    wristxG 0.24win prob +1 pts
    3-6
    17:15

Penalties

NYR 4 PIM·OTT 4 PIM

2nd

  • 4:15NYRMats Zuccarello · Slashingdrawn by Erik Karlsson2 min
  • 13:25OTTJohnny Oduya · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

3rd

  • 0:09NYRNick Holden · Slashingdrawn by Mark Stone2 min
  • 10:55OTTJohnny Oduya · Cross checkingdrawn by Michael Grabner2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalNYR goalFinal: OTT 100%

Biggest swing: Derick Brassard, 2nd 18:53 — OTT 75% → 90%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Paajarvi · Goal · xG 0.24M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.20M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.14D. Brassard · Goal · xG 0.13M. Gaborik · Missed · xG 0.13M. Stone · Goal · xG 0.11D. Brassard · On goal · xG 0.10M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.10M. Duchene · Goal · xG 0.10M. Gaborik · Missed · xG 0.09M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.08T. Pyatt · On goal · xG 0.08D. Brassard · On goal · xG 0.08Z. Smith · On goal · xG 0.07M. Borowiecki · Missed · xG 0.06J. Oduya · Goal · xG 0.05Z. Smith · On goal · xG 0.05E. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.04G. Dumont · On goal · xG 0.04C. Ceci · Missed · xG 0.04T. Chabot · Goal · xG 0.03D. Brassard · Missed · xG 0.03Z. Smith · Missed · xG 0.03T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.03M. McCormick · Missed · xG 0.02N. Shore · On goal · xG 0.02M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.02N. Shore · On goal · xG 0.02M. Gaborik · On goal · xG 0.02J. Oduya · Missed · xG 0.02T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.02M. McCormick · On goal · xG 0.02J. Pageau · On goal · xG 0.01D. Brassard · On goal · xG 0.01Z. Smith · On goal · xG 0.01C. Ceci · On goal · xG 0.01M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.01E. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.01M. Paajarvi · On goal · xG 0.01T. Pyatt · On goal · xG 0.01E. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.00M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.00
OTT6 G · 2.3 xG · 42 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NYRvsOTT
2.83 G
All situations
6 G2.3
2.42 G
Even strength
6 G2.1
0.41 G
Power play
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 95 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NYR59%41%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.74 – 2.28

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NYRvsOTT
38
Shots on goal
33
58%
Faceoffs
42%
1/2
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
4
22
Hits
20
15
Blocked shots
18
10
Giveaways
16
4
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
New York Rangers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
55N. HoldenD000-120.04522—23:00
77T. DeAngeloD000-150.13100—21:31
76B. SkjeiD000-220.04200—21:22
44N. PionkD000-330.02120—20:17
93M. ZibanejadC101050.512107418:25
61R. NashL000030.46400—18:01
13K. HayesR011+110.022105616:53
58J. GilmourD000-130.09120—16:30
36M. ZuccarelloR011+120.17012—16:20
28P. CareyC000000.01110015:37
40M. GrabnerL202030.49000—15:27
25R. SproulD011030.31110—15:00
89P. BuchnevichL011010.17000—14:42
12P. HollandC000020.210204414:34
10J. MillerC011-210.021105514:29
51D. DesharnaisC000-300.000005011:41
17J. FastR000-520.11100—11:10
26J. VeseyL000-400.00010—11:03
New York Rangers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
30H. Lundqvist(L)27225.8151.57-3.4347:25
75B. Halverson651.8330.72-0.2812:33

Season series

OTT leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).