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Hurricanes at Lightning
NHL

Carolina Hurricanes at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Carolina Hurricanes
4
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸5
FinalTV FS-CR, SUN·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Carolina Hurricanes 5-4. The lead changed hands 2 times. It was tied 3-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jake Dotchin's goal at 9:27 of the third period, which took the Lightning's chances from 52% to 83%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 2.7 to 2.0; shots on goal were CAR 32, TBL 34. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 63% of the time. Cam Ward stopped 29 of 34 (.853), 2.3 goals below expected; Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 28 of 32 (.875), 2.0 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Tyler Johnson (3 G), 2. Brayden Point (3 A), 3. Jake Dotchin (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    T. Johnson3 G
  2. ★★
    TBL
    B. Point3 A
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    J. Dotchin1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CARCAR2811519432
TBLTBL21411129534

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. CAR
    B. McGinn(7)PPG
    J. Williams (19), J. Slavin (9)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +10 pts
    1-0
    3:23
  2. TBL
    V. Hedman(6)
    N. Kucherov (33), S. Stamkos (35)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +13 pts
    1-1
    10:02
  3. CAR
    S. Aho(14)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.08win prob +14 pts
    2-1
    12:10
  4. TBL
    T. Johnson(14)
    A. Stralman (8), B. Point (21)
    tip-inxG 0.06win prob +15 pts
    2-2
    16:26

2nd period

  1. TBL
    T. Johnson(15)
    J. Dotchin (6), B. Point (22)
    backhandxG 0.11win prob +16 pts
    2-3
    1:58
  2. CAR
    J. Faulk(4)PPG
    T. Teravainen (23), J. Staal (14)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +14 pts
    3-3
    10:36

3rd period

  1. TBL
    J. Dotchin(3)
    B. Point (23), O. Palat (21)
    snapxG 0.03win prob +31 pts
    3-4
    9:27
  2. TBL
    T. Johnson(16)
    V. Hedman (27)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +10 pts
    3-5
    14:54
  3. CAR
    E. Lindholm(12)
    J. Faulk (9), T. Teravainen (24)
    tip-inxG 0.08win prob +5 pts
    4-5
    18:42

Penalties

CAR 0 PIM·TBL 8 PIM

1st

  • 2:18TBLRyan Callahan · Trippingdrawn by Josh Jooris2 min

2nd

  • 4:50TBLserved by V. Namestnikov · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 10:05TBLBraydon Coburn · Cross checkingdrawn by Marcus Kruger2 min

3rd

  • 15:51TBLSteven Stamkos · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalCAR goalFinal: TBL 100%

Biggest swing: Jake Dotchin, 3rd 9:27 — TBL 52% → 83%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
T. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.17V. Namestnikov · On goal · xG 0.17T. Johnson · Goal · xG 0.14B. Point · On goal · xG 0.14S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.14T. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.13Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.12J. Brown · On goal · xG 0.11S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.11T. Johnson · Goal · xG 0.11Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.11S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.10C. Paquette · On goal · xG 0.09N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.08S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.07C. Kunitz · On goal · xG 0.07T. Johnson · Goal · xG 0.06V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.06V. Hedman · Goal · xG 0.06C. Paquette · Missed · xG 0.05T. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.04C. Paquette · On goal · xG 0.04R. Callahan · Missed · xG 0.04J. Dotchin · Missed · xG 0.04M. Sergachev · Missed · xG 0.04M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.04A. Sustr · On goal · xG 0.03J. Dotchin · Goal · xG 0.03A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.03Y. Gourde · Missed · xG 0.03V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.02V. Namestnikov · On goal · xG 0.02V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.02J. Dotchin · Missed · xG 0.02V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.02Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.02R. Callahan · On goal · xG 0.02R. Callahan · On goal · xG 0.01B. Coburn · On goal · xG 0.01A. Stralman · On goal · xG 0.01M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.01A. Stralman · Missed · xG 0.01B. Coburn · Missed · xG 0.01R. Callahan · On goal · xG 0.01
TBL5 G · 2.7 xG · 44 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CARvsTBL
2.04 G
All situations
5 G2.7
1.22 G
Even strength
5 G2.7
0.82 G
Power play
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 84 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CAR37%63%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.97 – 2.66

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CARvsTBL
32
Shots on goal
34
62%
Faceoffs
38%
2/4
Power play
0/0
0
Penalty minutes
8
13
Hits
17
14
Blocked shots
19
7
Giveaways
8
3
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Carolina Hurricanes skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
27J. FaulkD112-240.13110—24:08
74J. SlavinD011-220.07140—21:27
22B. PesceD000-120.15010—19:48
14J. WilliamsR011+110.200202519:24
23B. McGinnL101+110.19100—18:48
20S. AhoC101-110.08010018:41
5N. HanifinD000030.06110—18:34
11J. StaalC011-210.062005818:15
86T. TeravainenC022-200.00000017:42
7D. RyanC000-330.080006316:46
57T. van RiemsdykD000-220.02010—16:43
49V. RaskC000+200.000108016:40
28E. LindholmC101-120.220006715:03
53J. SkinnerL000-230.34000—15:03
6K. DahlbeckD000020.03310—14:54
19J. JoorisR000020.121008010:38
42J. NordstromC000030.22100010:21
16M. KrugerC000000.002105009:37
Carolina Hurricanes goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
30C. Ward(L)34295.8532.70-2.3057:28

Season series

TBL leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).