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Lightning at Hurricanes
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Carolina Hurricanes

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸5
Carolina Hurricanes
1
FinalTV FS-CR, SUN·PNC Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Carolina Hurricanes 5-1. The Lightning scored first and never trailed. The Lightning led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mikhail Sergachev's goal at 9:13 of the second period, which took the Lightning's chances from 66% to 83%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 4.6 to 2.5; shots on goal were TBL 29, CAR 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 56% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 31 of 32 (.969), 1.5 goals saved above expected; Scott Darling stopped 24 of 27 (.889). Three stars: 1. Andrei Vasilevskiy (31 saves, .969), 2. Jaccob Slavin (1 G), 3. Tyler Johnson (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    A. Vasilevskiy31 saves, .969
  2. ★★
    CAR
    J. Slavin1 G
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    T. Johnson1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL11011039529
CARCAR08011113132

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. TBL
    T. Johnson(4)PPG
    O. Palat (3), B. Point (7)
    wristxG 0.21win prob +15 pts
    1-0
    19:25

2nd period

  1. TBL
    M. Sergachev(4)
    S. Stamkos (16), T. Johnson (3)
    snapxG 0.05win prob +17 pts
    2-0
    9:13

3rd period

  1. CAR
    J. Slavin(2)
    B. Pesce (1), J. Jooris (1)
    snapxG 0.03win prob +16 pts
    2-1
    3:28
  2. TBL
    V. Namestnikov(4)EN
    V. Hedman (4), J. Dotchin (1)
    wristxG 0.71win prob +8 pts
    3-1
    17:27
  3. TBL
    R. Callahan(1)EN
    C. Kunitz (2), J. Brown (1)
    wristxG 0.94win prob +1 pts
    4-1
    18:39
  4. TBL
    N. Kucherov(11)
    S. Stamkos (17), B. Coburn (4)
    wristxG 0.18
    5-1
    19:56

Penalties

TBL 10 PIM·CAR 4 PIM

1st

  • 2:19TBLChris Kunitz · Holdingdrawn by Justin Williams2 min
  • 9:30TBLAndrej Sustr · Holdingdrawn by Derek Ryan2 min
  • 17:30CARJustin Williams · Holdingdrawn by Ryan Callahan2 min

2nd

  • 0:20TBLVictor Hedman · Slashingdrawn by Justin Williams2 min
  • 16:17CARJustin Williams · Roughingdrawn by Victor Hedman2 min
  • 16:17TBLVictor Hedman · Roughingdrawn by Justin Williams2 min

3rd

  • 0:33TBLSteven Stamkos · Interferencedrawn by Jordan Staal2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CAR goalTBL goalFinal: CAR 0%

Biggest swing: Mikhail Sergachev, 2nd 9:13 — TBL 66% → 83%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Williams · On goal · xG 0.28V. Rask · Missed · xG 0.19S. Aho · Missed · xG 0.12J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.12J. Jooris · On goal · xG 0.12J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.11J. Nordstrom · On goal · xG 0.11J. Staal · Missed · xG 0.09V. Rask · Missed · xG 0.08E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.08E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.08J. Williams · On goal · xG 0.08E. Lindholm · Missed · xG 0.08V. Rask · On goal · xG 0.07D. Ryan · Missed · xG 0.07B. McGinn · Missed · xG 0.06E. Lindholm · Missed · xG 0.04T. Teravainen · Missed · xG 0.04D. Ryan · On goal · xG 0.04J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.04J. Jooris · On goal · xG 0.04N. Hanifin · Missed · xG 0.04B. McGinn · Missed · xG 0.03J. Williams · Missed · xG 0.03J. Slavin · Goal · xG 0.03N. Hanifin · Missed · xG 0.03S. Aho · Missed · xG 0.03N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.03V. Rask · On goal · xG 0.03J. Williams · On goal · xG 0.03S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.02V. Rask · On goal · xG 0.02J. Jooris · Missed · xG 0.02B. McGinn · On goal · xG 0.02B. Pesce · Missed · xG 0.02B. McGinn · On goal · xG 0.02B. Pesce · On goal · xG 0.02J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.02J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.01J. Jooris · On goal · xG 0.01J. Faulk · On goal · xG 0.01J. Slavin · Missed · xG 0.01N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.01E. Lindholm · Missed · xG 0.01J. Slavin · On goal · xG 0.01T. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.01N. Hanifin · Missed · xG 0.01B. McGinn · Missed · xG 0.01J. Jooris · On goal · xG 0.01E. Lindholm · Missed · xG 0.01M. Kruger · On goal · xG 0.01J. Slavin · On goal · xG 0.01J. Williams · Missed · xG 0.00E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.00J. Faulk · Missed · xG 0.00
CAR1 G · 2.5 xG · 55 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsCAR
4.63 G
All situations
1 G2.5
2.12 G
Even strength
1 G2.2
0.81 G
Power play
0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 95 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL56%44%CAR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.85 – 2.51

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsCAR
29
Shots on goal
32
40%
Faceoffs
60%
1/1
Power play
0/4
10
Penalty minutes
4
21
Hits
22
22
Blocked shots
6
7
Giveaways
7
15
Takeaways
15

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77V. HedmanD011+110.04124—24:44
86N. KucherovR101+230.43010—19:46
21B. PointC011010.131003619:33
6A. StralmanD000+100.05230—17:57
5D. GirardiD000+120.04220—17:47
37Y. GourdeC000010.480102517:38
59J. DotchinD011+200.00010—17:36
18O. PalatL011010.1000010017:27
91S. StamkosC022+230.210123317:15
55B. CoburnD011+100.00140—17:04
90V. NamestnikovC101+231.071104316:12
9T. JohnsonC112020.242005014:25
98M. SergachevD101+150.31210—14:23
17A. KillornL000040.47000—13:03
24R. CallahanR101+110.94430—12:59
14C. KunitzL011+110.02012—12:14
23J. BrownR011+110.015105011:01
62A. SustrD000-100.00002—09:06
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(W)32311.9692.52+1.5260:00

Season series

TBL leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).