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Predators at Wild
NHL

Nashville Predators at Minnesota Wild

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
2
Minnesota Wild
▸4
FinalTV NBCSN·Xcel Energy Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Minnesota Wild beat the Nashville Predators 4-2. The Wild scored first and never trailed. The Wild led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mathew Dumba's goal at 13:14 of the second period, which took the Wild's chances from 73% to 88%. Expected goals favored the Wild, 3.9 to 3.0; shots on goal were NSH 43, MIN 38. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 52% of the time. Pekka Rinne stopped 34 of 37 (.919); Devan Dubnyk stopped 41 of 43 (.953), 1.0 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Mikael Granlund (3 G), 2. Jared Spurgeon (1 A), 3. Mathew Dumba (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    MIN
    M. Granlund3 G
  2. ★★
    MIN
    J. Spurgeon1 A
  3. ★★★
    MIN
    M. Dumba1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NSHNSH19018116243
MINMIN21811119438

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. MIN
    M. Granlund(9)
    M. Dumba (14)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +13 pts
    0-1
    7:34
  2. NSH
    P. Subban(8)
    A. Emelin (6)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +4 pts
    1-1
    10:16
  3. MIN
    M. Granlund(10)PPG
    J. Spurgeon (13), R. Suter (19)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +12 pts
    1-2
    11:09

2nd period

  1. MIN
    M. Dumba(7)
    J. Brodin (4), M. Cullen (6)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +15 pts
    1-3
    13:14

3rd period

  1. NSH
    K. Turris(8)PPG
    P. Subban (19), R. Josi (16)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +13 pts
    2-3
    2:52
  2. MIN
    M. Granlund(11)EN
    E. Staal (18), M. Koivu (13)
    wristxG 0.95win prob +5 pts
    2-4
    19:09

Penalties

NSH 15 PIM·MIN 11 PIM

1st

  • 1:44NSHKevin Fiala · Slashingdrawn by Eric Staal2 min
  • 9:51NSHAustin Watson · Fightingdrawn by Marcus Foligno5 min
  • 9:51MINMarcus Foligno · Fightingdrawn by Austin Watson5 min
  • 10:48NSHNick Bonino · High stickingdrawn by Jared Spurgeon2 min

2nd

  • 4:51MINMathew Dumba · Interferencedrawn by Viktor Arvidsson2 min
  • 6:10NSHViktor Arvidsson · Slashingdrawn by Matt Cullen2 min
  • 19:50MINMikko Koivu · Trippingdrawn by Filip Forsberg2 min

3rd

  • 1:01MINDevan Dubnyk · Slashingdrawn by Viktor Arvidsson2 min
  • 4:54NSHMiikka Salomaki · Hookingdrawn by Mikael Granlund2 min
  • 11:49NSHMattias Ekholm · Cross checkingdrawn by Jason Zucker2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
MIN goalNSH goalFinal: MIN 100%

Biggest swing: Mathew Dumba, 2nd 13:14 — MIN 73% → 88%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Granlund · Goal · xG 0.95M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.22M. Dumba · On goal · xG 0.20J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.17C. Coyle · On goal · xG 0.16C. Coyle · On goal · xG 0.15C. Coyle · On goal · xG 0.14J. Spurgeon · Missed · xG 0.12M. Koivu · On goal · xG 0.12M. Granlund · Goal · xG 0.12T. Ennis · On goal · xG 0.09J. Spurgeon · Missed · xG 0.09M. Koivu · Missed · xG 0.09M. Cullen · Missed · xG 0.09M. Koivu · On goal · xG 0.08C. Stewart · Missed · xG 0.07M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.07Z. Mitchell · On goal · xG 0.07M. Dumba · On goal · xG 0.07T. Ennis · On goal · xG 0.06Z. Mitchell · On goal · xG 0.06M. Reilly · Missed · xG 0.05M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.05E. Staal · On goal · xG 0.05J. Spurgeon · On goal · xG 0.05M. Granlund · Missed · xG 0.04M. Granlund · Goal · xG 0.04J. Spurgeon · On goal · xG 0.03J. Spurgeon · Missed · xG 0.03M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.03J. Spurgeon · On goal · xG 0.03T. Ennis · On goal · xG 0.03C. Stewart · On goal · xG 0.03C. Stewart · On goal · xG 0.02J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.02M. Dumba · On goal · xG 0.02M. Dumba · Goal · xG 0.02M. Reilly · On goal · xG 0.02E. Staal · On goal · xG 0.02R. Suter · On goal · xG 0.02R. Suter · On goal · xG 0.01C. Stewart · On goal · xG 0.01J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.01M. Cullen · On goal · xG 0.01R. Suter · Missed · xG 0.01J. Eriksson Ek · Missed · xG 0.01J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.01R. Suter · On goal · xG 0.01
MIN4 G · 3.9 xG · 48 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsMIN
3.02 G
All situations
3 G3.9
1.91 G
Even strength
2 G2.0
1.11 G
Power play
1 G1.0
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 112 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH52%48%MIN

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.98 – 2.89

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsMIN
43
Shots on goal
38
57%
Faceoffs
43%
1/3
Power play
1/5
15
Penalty minutes
11
24
Hits
13
11
Blocked shots
17
4
Giveaways
3
1
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
76P. SubbanD112060.35120—26:53
59R. JosiD011-240.23100—25:07
25A. EmelinD011+100.03610—21:24
14M. EkholmD000-110.03312—21:14
92R. JohansenC000-120.150006219:47
10C. SissonsC000000.003106219:17
33V. ArvidssonL000-120.24102—19:17
15C. SmithC000+1110.60000017:42
22K. FialaL000040.60002—16:44
8K. TurrisC101-120.300006015:59
9F. ForsbergL000-120.06300—15:04
19C. JarnkrokC000010.05000014:48
52M. IrwinD000-110.03120—12:28
7Y. WeberD000-110.02120—11:04
46P. AbergL000-130.21100—10:28
13N. BoninoC000-110.011125710:05
51A. WatsonL000-110.05115—09:36
20M. SalomakiR000-110.04102—06:32
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35P. Rinne(L)37343.9192.93-0.0758:10

Season series

MIN leads 3-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).