Ohio vs. Ball State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
OHIOTeam statsBALL
- Q4 0:57BALLQian Magwood 43 Yd pass from Kiael Kelly (Kiael Kelly Pass to Donovan Hamilton for Two-Point Conversion)14–20
- Q4 8:39BALLTeam Safety 14–12
- Q3 0:25BALLCarson Holmer 22 Yd Field Goal 14–10
- Q3 7:05BALLKiael Kelly 13 Yd Run (Carson Holmer Kick)14–7
- Q2 3:24OHIORodney Harris II 23 Yd pass from Parker Navarro (David Dellenbach Kick)14–0
- Q1 4:39OHIODuncan Brune 1 Yd Run (David Dellenbach Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- OHIO played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and BALL did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.0 vs 3rd & 6.0
- PassParker Navarro 16/29, 188 YDS, 1 TD
- RushParker Navarro 13 CAR, 77 YDS
- RecChase Hendricks 8 REC, 104 YDS
- PassKiael Kelly 17/33, 185 YDS, 1 TD
- RushKiael Kelly 21 CAR, 96 YDS, 1 TD
- RecQian Magwood 4 REC, 92 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsOHIO up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:57BALL +64%
Qian Magwood 43 Yd pass from Kiael Kelly (Kiael Kelly Pass to Donovan Hamilton for Two-Point Conversion)
- Q4 1:54BALL +25%
PENALTY OU Offside (Crable,Jay) 5 yards from BSU40 to BSU45. NO PLAY
- Q4 3:04OHIO +20%
Magnus Haines punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BALL 30, Qian Magwood returns for 7 yds to the BALL 30
- Q4 7:24BALL +15%
Shotgun Kelly,Kiael pass incomplete short right thrown to BSU42 PENALTY BSU Holding (Horton,TJ) 10 yards from BSU40 to BSU30. NO PLAY
- Q4 8:42BALL +9%
Adam Saul punt for 62 yds
- Q3 0:25BALL +8%
Carson Holmer 22 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Ohio vs. Ball State?
Ohio 14, Ball State 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked OHIO, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| OHIO | BALL | |
|---|---|---|
| 356 | Total yards | 357 |
| 188 | Passing yards | 185 |
| 168 | Rushing yards | 172 |
| 18 | First downs | 20 |
| 7-14 | 3rd down | 9-20 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 16/29 | Comp/Att | 17/33 |
| 6.5 | Yards per pass | 5.6 |
| 4.5 | Yards per rush | 4.1 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 8-90 | Penalties | 2-15 |
| 28:09 | Possession | 31:51 |
Costliest call
Q1 1:23 BALL punt on 4th & 11 at OHIO 41. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.30 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:57BALLQian Magwood 43 Yd pass from Kiael Kelly (Kiael Kelly Pass to Donovan Hamilton for Two-Point Conversion)14–20
- Q4 8:39BALLTeam Safety 14–12
- Q3 0:25BALLCarson Holmer 22 Yd Field Goal 14–10
- Q3 7:05BALLKiael Kelly 13 Yd Run (Carson Holmer Kick)14–7
- Q2 3:24OHIORodney Harris II 23 Yd pass from Parker Navarro (David Dellenbach Kick)14–0
- Q1 4:39OHIODuncan Brune 1 Yd Run (David Dellenbach Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BALL Elo 1095, OHIO Elo 1604 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BALL +18 (13% to win) — 4.0 points clear of OHIO's market line of +14. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#55 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #21 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →Ball State leads 16–13 · 38% have been one-possession games
| OHIO | BALL | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.1 (#66) | CORE overall | -27.9 (#133) |
| +1 / +2 | offense / defense | -22 / +6 |
| 2.50 | points / drive | 1.14 |
| 1.96 | allowed / drive | 2.60 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 39% |
| -6 | pass over expected | -10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →