Marshall vs. Coastal Carolina: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MRSHTeam statsCCU
- Q4 8:08CCUSamari Collier 1 Yd Run (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)27–44
- Q3 3:21CCUKian Afrookhteh 24 Yd Field Goal 27–37
- Q3 7:56CCUKian Afrookhteh 42 Yd Field Goal 27–34
- Q3 10:44CCUBryson Graves 17 Yd pass from Samari Collier (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)27–31
- Q3 11:26CCUMalcolm Gillie 69 Yd pass from Samari Collier (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)27–24
- Q3 12:46MRSHDe'Andre Tamarez 7 Yd pass from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Lorcan Quinn Kick)27–17
- Q2 5:33CCUDominic Knicely 59 Yd Run (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)20–17
- Q2 6:49MRSHJo'Shon Barbie 4 Yd Run (Lorcan Quinn Kick)20–10
- Q2 10:12CCUSamari Collier 2 Yd Run (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)13–10
- Q2 14:14MRSHLorcan Quinn 23 Yd Field Goal 13–3
- Q1 5:27MRSHLorcan Quinn 55 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q1 9:55CCUKian Afrookhteh 36 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 13:08MRSHBoogie Trotter 51 Yd Interception Return (Lorcan Quinn Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- CCU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 16% explosive on a 39% success rate
- PassCarlos Del Rio-Wilson 21/36, 153 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushAntwan Roberts Jr. 15 CAR, 134 YDS
- RecDe'Andre Tamarez 5 REC, 45 YDS, 1 TD
- PassSamari Collier 8/20, 196 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushDominic Lee-Knicely 5 CAR, 76 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMalcolm Gillie 1 REC, 69 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCCU up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 10:44CCU +25%
Bryson Graves 17 Yd pass from Samari Collier (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)
- Q3 3:21CCU +23%
#91 K.Afrookhteh field goal attempt from 24 yards GOOD
- Q3 7:56CCU +21%
#91 K.Afrookhteh field goal attempt from 42 yards GOOD
- Q3 11:26CCU +16%
Malcolm Gillie 69 Yd pass from Samari Collier (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)
- Q2 5:33CCU +13%
No Huddle-Shotgun #23 D.Knicely rush left for 59 yards gain to the Herd00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q3 12:46MRSH +13%
De'Andre Tamarez 7 Yd pass from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Lorcan Quinn Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of Marshall vs. Coastal Carolina?
Marshall 27, Coastal Carolina 44.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MRSH, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MRSH | CCU | |
|---|---|---|
| 432 | Total yards | 410 |
| 153 | Passing yards | 196 |
| 279 | Rushing yards | 214 |
| 22 | First downs | 16 |
| 6-16 | 3rd down | 6-16 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 21/36 | Comp/Att | 8/21 |
| 4.3 | Yards per pass | 9.3 |
| 6.2 | Yards per rush | 4.8 |
| 5 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 8-70 | Penalties | 4-40 |
| 31:33 | Possession | 28:27 |
Costliest call
Q2 1:05 CCU punt on 4th & 1 at CCU 22. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.91 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:08CCUSamari Collier 1 Yd Run (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)27–44
- Q3 3:21CCUKian Afrookhteh 24 Yd Field Goal 27–37
- Q3 7:56CCUKian Afrookhteh 42 Yd Field Goal 27–34
- Q3 10:44CCUBryson Graves 17 Yd pass from Samari Collier (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)27–31
- Q3 11:26CCUMalcolm Gillie 69 Yd pass from Samari Collier (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)27–24
- Q3 12:46MRSHDe'Andre Tamarez 7 Yd pass from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Lorcan Quinn Kick)27–17
- Q2 5:33CCUDominic Knicely 59 Yd Run (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)20–17
- Q2 6:49MRSHJo'Shon Barbie 4 Yd Run (Lorcan Quinn Kick)20–10
- Q2 10:12CCUSamari Collier 2 Yd Run (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)13–10
- Q2 14:14MRSHLorcan Quinn 23 Yd Field Goal 13–3
- Q1 5:27MRSHLorcan Quinn 55 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q1 9:55CCUKian Afrookhteh 36 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 13:08MRSHBoogie Trotter 51 Yd Interception Return (Lorcan Quinn Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CCU Elo 1235, MRSH Elo 1583 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CCU +11.5 (23% to win) — 4.5 points clear of MRSH's market line of +7. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#43 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #63 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →| MRSH | CCU | |
|---|---|---|
| -2.7 (#71) | CORE overall | -16.4 (#115) |
| +0 / +3 | offense / defense | -8 / +8 |
| 2.37 | points / drive | 1.56 |
| 2.59 | allowed / drive | 2.54 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 35% |
| -6 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →