Old Dominion vs. Marshall: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ODUTeam statsMRSH
- Q4 0:48ODUMaurki James 1 Yd Run (Riley Callaghan Kick)24–48
- Q4 6:56ODUColton Joseph 4 Yd Run (Riley Callaghan Kick)17–48
- Q4 9:07MRSHCarlos Del Rio-Wilson 2 Yd Run (Lorcan Quinn Kick)10–48
- Q3 2:11MRSHLorcan Quinn 46 Yd Field Goal 10–41
- Q3 5:47MRSHDemarcus Lacey 15 Yd pass from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Lorcan Quinn Kick)10–38
- Q3 8:45MRSHAntwan Roberts 26 Yd Run (Lorcan Quinn Kick)10–31
- Q2 0:24ODURiley Callaghan 42 Yd Field Goal 10–27
- Q2 1:23MRSHCarlos Del Rio-Wilson 6 Yd Run (Lorcan Quinn Kick)7–27
- Q2 3:10MRSHLorcan Quinn 20 Yd Field Goal 7–17
- Q2 13:52MRSHMichael Allen 49 Yd pass from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Lorcan Quinn Kick)7–14
- Q1 0:47ODUTre' Brown III 71 Yd pass from Colton Joseph (Riley Callaghan Kick)7–7
- Q1 4:57MRSHBoogie Trotter 22 Yd Interception Return (Lorcan Quinn Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassColton Joseph 15/28, 266 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushMaurki James 12 CAR, 83 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTre' Brown 1 REC, 71 YDS, 1 TD
- PassCarlos Del Rio-Wilson 17/24, 219 YDS, 2 TD
- RushCarlos Del Rio-Wilson 17 CAR, 95 YDS, 2 TD
- RecDemarcus Lacey 8 REC, 121 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMRSH up 34 entering the 4th quarter. Across 345 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Old Dominion vs. Marshall?
Old Dominion 24, Marshall 48.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ODU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ODU | MRSH | |
|---|---|---|
| 439 | Total yards | 445 |
| 266 | Passing yards | 222 |
| 173 | Rushing yards | 223 |
| 15 | First downs | 22 |
| 4-14 | 3rd down | 4-15 |
| 1-4 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 15/28 | Comp/Att | 18/26 |
| 9.5 | Yards per pass | 8.5 |
| 4.6 | Yards per rush | 4.5 |
| 5 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-27 | Penalties | 8-70 |
| 23:25 | Possession | 36:35 |
Costliest call
Q2 3:10 MRSH field goal on 4th & 2 at ODU 2. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.39 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:48ODUMaurki James 1 Yd Run (Riley Callaghan Kick)24–48
- Q4 6:56ODUColton Joseph 4 Yd Run (Riley Callaghan Kick)17–48
- Q4 9:07MRSHCarlos Del Rio-Wilson 2 Yd Run (Lorcan Quinn Kick)10–48
- Q3 2:11MRSHLorcan Quinn 46 Yd Field Goal 10–41
- Q3 5:47MRSHDemarcus Lacey 15 Yd pass from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Lorcan Quinn Kick)10–38
- Q3 8:45MRSHAntwan Roberts 26 Yd Run (Lorcan Quinn Kick)10–31
- Q2 0:24ODURiley Callaghan 42 Yd Field Goal 10–27
- Q2 1:23MRSHCarlos Del Rio-Wilson 6 Yd Run (Lorcan Quinn Kick)7–27
- Q2 3:10MRSHLorcan Quinn 20 Yd Field Goal 7–17
- Q2 13:52MRSHMichael Allen 49 Yd pass from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Lorcan Quinn Kick)7–14
- Q1 0:47ODUTre' Brown III 71 Yd pass from Colton Joseph (Riley Callaghan Kick)7–7
- Q1 4:57MRSHBoogie Trotter 22 Yd Interception Return (Lorcan Quinn Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MRSH Elo 1508, ODU Elo 1628 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MRSH +2.4 (45% to win) — 12.1 points clear of MRSH's market line of +14.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#6 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #15 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →Marshall leads 10–1 · Marshall has won 8 straight · 27% have been one-possession games
| ODU | MRSH | |
|---|---|---|
| +18.9 (#17) | CORE overall | -2.7 (#71) |
| +5 / -14 | offense / defense | +0 / +3 |
| 2.46 | points / drive | 2.37 |
| 1.52 | allowed / drive | 2.59 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| -3 | pass over expected | -6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →