BYU vs. Colorado: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BYUTeam statsCOLO
- Q4 2:17COLOSav'ell Smalls 2 Yd pass from Shedeur Sanders (Alejandro Mata Kick)36–14
- Q4 5:28BYUWill Ferrin 31 Yd Field Goal 36–7
- Q4 10:27BYULJ Martin 9 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)33–7
- Q3 6:14COLOTravis Hunter 43 Yd pass from Shedeur Sanders (Alejandro Mata Kick)27–7
- Q3 8:03BYUSione I Moa 13 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)27–0
- Q2 0:00BYUWill Ferrin 54 Yd Field Goal 20–0
- Q2 5:32BYUParker Kingston 64 Yd Punt Return (Will Ferrin Kick)17–0
- Q1 2:19BYUWill Ferrin 51 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 7:10BYULJ Martin 1 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassJake Retzlaff 12/21, 151 YDS, 2 INT
- RushLJ Martin 16 CAR, 88 YDS, 2 TD
- RecLJ Martin 2 REC, 33 YDS
- PassShedeur Sanders 16/23, 208 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushMicah Welch 5 CAR, 25 YDS
- RecTravis Hunter 4 REC, 106 YDS, 1 TD
FAQ
What was the final score of BYU vs. Colorado?
BYU 36, Colorado 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked COLO, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| BYU | COLO | |
|---|---|---|
| 331 | Total yards | 210 |
| 151 | Passing yards | 208 |
| 180 | Rushing yards | 2 |
| 22 | First downs | 9 |
| 8-14 | 3rd down | 3-9 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 12/23 | Comp/Att | 16/23 |
| 6.6 | Yards per pass | 9.0 |
| 4.3 | Yards per rush | 0.1 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 9-80 | Penalties | 8-65 |
| 35:56 | Possession | 24:04 |
- Q4 2:17COLOSav'ell Smalls 2 Yd pass from Shedeur Sanders (Alejandro Mata Kick)36–14
- Q4 5:28BYUWill Ferrin 31 Yd Field Goal 36–7
- Q4 10:27BYULJ Martin 9 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)33–7
- Q3 6:14COLOTravis Hunter 43 Yd pass from Shedeur Sanders (Alejandro Mata Kick)27–7
- Q3 8:03BYUSione I Moa 13 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)27–0
- Q2 0:00BYUWill Ferrin 54 Yd Field Goal 20–0
- Q2 5:32BYUParker Kingston 64 Yd Punt Return (Will Ferrin Kick)17–0
- Q1 2:19BYUWill Ferrin 51 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 7:10BYULJ Martin 1 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (COLO Elo 1762, BYU Elo 1656 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects COLO -4.2 (62% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#42 of 120 in 2024 by biggest miss · #89 of 129 in 2024 by longest odds.
The 2024 upset archive →Colorado leads 8–5–1 · BYU has won 4 straight · 50% have been one-possession games
| BYU | COLO | |
|---|---|---|
| +16.8 (#17) | CORE overall | +15.0 (#22) |
| +7 / -10 | offense / defense | +3 / -12 |
| 2.61 | points / drive | 2.52 |
| 1.82 | allowed / drive | 1.64 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +15 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →