Coastal Carolina vs. Georgia State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CCUTeam statsGAST
- Q4 4:36GASTDorian Fleming 6 Yd pass from Kyle Lowe (Kyle Lowe Pass to Ted Hurst for Two-Point Conversion)48–27
- Q4 7:13CCUTobias Fletcher 39 Yd Interception Return (Kade Hensley Kick)48–19
- Q4 8:33CCUKade Hensley 23 Yd Field Goal 41–19
- Q4 9:50CCUEthan Vasko 10 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)38–19
- Q3 0:25GASTFreddie Brock 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)31–19
- Q3 2:44CCUSenika McKie 31 Yd pass from Ethan Vasko (Kade Hensley Kick)31–13
- Q3 7:06GASTLiam Rickman 30 Yd Field Goal 24–13
- Q3 10:56CCUChristian Washington 18 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)24–10
- Q2 0:01CCUKade Hensley 43 Yd Field Goal 17–10
- Q2 4:16CCUZach Courtney 5 Yd pass from Ethan Vasko (Kade Hensley Kick)14–10
- Q2 8:38GASTFreddie Brock 19 Yd Run (Liam Rickman Kick)7–10
- Q2 14:07GASTLiam Rickman 28 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 8:15CCUSenika McKie 10 Yd pass from Ethan Vasko (Kade Hensley Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- GAST played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and CCU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.7 vs 3rd & 5.1
- PassEthan Vasko 13/17, 200 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushChristian Washington 20 CAR, 124 YDS, 1 TD
- RecSenika McKie 5 REC, 81 YDS, 2 TD
- PassChristian Veilleux 15/26, 205 YDS, 4 INT
- RushFreddie Brock IV 14 CAR, 71 YDS, 2 TD
- RecTed Hurst III 8 REC, 131 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCCU up 12 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,517 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 8:38GAST +24%
Freddie Brock run for 19 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)
- Q2 4:16CCU +23%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Zach Courtney for 5 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)
- Q1 8:15CCU +18%
Ethan Vasko pass complete to Senika McKie for 10 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)
- Q3 10:56CCU +16%
Christian Washington run for 18 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)
- Q2 0:01CCU +9%
Kade Hensley 43 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 14:07GAST +8%
Liam Rickman 28 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Coastal Carolina vs. Georgia State?
Coastal Carolina 48, Georgia State 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked GAST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| CCU | GAST | |
|---|---|---|
| 475 | Total yards | 428 |
| 200 | Passing yards | 226 |
| 275 | Rushing yards | 202 |
| 27 | First downs | 19 |
| 10-15 | 3rd down | 5-12 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 13/20 | Comp/Att | 17/32 |
| 10.0 | Yards per pass | 7.1 |
| 5.2 | Yards per rush | 6.1 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 6 |
| 7-60 | Penalties | 3-25 |
| 32:43 | Possession | 27:17 |
Costliest call
Q4 7:13 GAST go for it on 4th & 6 at GAST 29. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.49 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:36GASTDorian Fleming 6 Yd pass from Kyle Lowe (Kyle Lowe Pass to Ted Hurst for Two-Point Conversion)48–27
- Q4 7:13CCUTobias Fletcher 39 Yd Interception Return (Kade Hensley Kick)48–19
- Q4 8:33CCUKade Hensley 23 Yd Field Goal 41–19
- Q4 9:50CCUEthan Vasko 10 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)38–19
- Q3 0:25GASTFreddie Brock 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)31–19
- Q3 2:44CCUSenika McKie 31 Yd pass from Ethan Vasko (Kade Hensley Kick)31–13
- Q3 7:06GASTLiam Rickman 30 Yd Field Goal 24–13
- Q3 10:56CCUChristian Washington 18 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)24–10
- Q2 0:01CCUKade Hensley 43 Yd Field Goal 17–10
- Q2 4:16CCUZach Courtney 5 Yd pass from Ethan Vasko (Kade Hensley Kick)14–10
- Q2 8:38GASTFreddie Brock 19 Yd Run (Liam Rickman Kick)7–10
- Q2 14:07GASTLiam Rickman 28 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 8:15CCUSenika McKie 10 Yd pass from Ethan Vasko (Kade Hensley Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (GAST Elo 1296, CCU Elo 1335 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects GAST -0.8 (53% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#57 of 120 in 2024 by biggest miss · #120 of 129 in 2024 by longest odds.
The 2024 upset archive →Coastal Carolina leads 5–4 · Coastal Carolina has won 2 straight · 33% have been one-possession games
| CCU | GAST | |
|---|---|---|
| -11.9 (#106) | CORE overall | -14.6 (#116) |
| -3 / +9 | offense / defense | -3 / +11 |
| 2.27 | points / drive | 1.94 |
| 2.56 | allowed / drive | 3.07 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 29% |
| -5 | pass over expected | +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →