#17Daniel Jones

QB·Duke·20185.1 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Daniel Jones is a Dual-Threat QB for Duke. Daniel's 2018 season ranks in the 13th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 478 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Daniel Jones's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2018 Production

Passing

237/392 Comp/Att2674 Pass yards22 Pass TD9 INT60.5% Comp %

Rushing

319 Rush yards3 Rush TD104 Carries3.1 Yards/carry

Punting

2 Punts54 Punt yards27.0 Yards/punt29 Long2 Inside 20

Performance Analysis · 2018 · vs QB peers

Efficiency13
Volume100
Dual-Threat84
Consistency60
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)13th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency60th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.20 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.48 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Temple (SP+ 3).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsArmy	W34-14	-1.5	13/17	197	1	0	43	1	0.29
2	@Northwestern	W21-7	1.9	16/22	192	3	0	-3	0	0.46
5	vsVirginia Tech	L14-31	3.9	23/35	226	1	1	1	0	0.20
7	@Georgia Tech	W28-14	0.3	17/27	206	3	1	4	0	0.27
8	vsVirginia	L14-28	7.1	22/40	240	1	2	37	0	0.13
9	@Pittsburgh	L45-54	2.7	27/42	396	4	0	38	0	0.47
10	@Miami	W20-12	12.7	17/35	130	0	1	21	0	-0.22
11	vsNorth Carolina	W42-35	-2.5	31/54	361	3	1	186	1	0.43
12	@Clemson	L6-35	29.7	24/43	158	0	0	7	0	-0.12
13	vsWake Forest	L7-59	3.6	17/36	145	1	1	-9	0	-0.23
1	vsTemple	W56-27	2.9	30/41	423	5	2	-6	1	0.48

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

62.7%

Passing plays

96.1%

Rushing plays

22.3%

Standard downs

58.7%

Passing downs

70.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.10
Passing downs: 0.40
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.19 / 0.32

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2018 · 11 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.