Kent State vs. Bowling Green: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
KENTTeam statsBGSU
- Q4 2:29BGSUDeric Phouthavong 19 Yd pass from James Morgan (Jake Suder Kick)7–42
- Q4 10:38BGSUDonovan Wilson 4 Yd Run (Jake Suder Kick)7–35
- Q3 7:26BGSUJosh Cleveland 85 Yd Run (Jake Suder Kick)7–28
- Q2 2:07KENTErnest Calhoun 56 Yd pass from Nick Holley (Shane Hynes Kick)7–21
- Q2 3:14BGSUFred Coppet 13 Yd Run (Jake Suder Kick)0–21
- Q2 8:40BGSUHunter Folkertsma 3 Yd pass from James Morgan (Jake Suder Kick)0–14
- Q1 2:43BGSUDonovan Wilson 3 Yd Run (Jake Suder Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- KENT lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 34% success rate
- PassNick Holley 8/19, 127 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJustin Rankin 5 CAR, 21 YDS
- RecErnest Calhoun 5 REC, 112 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJames Morgan 12/24, 177 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushDonovan Wilson 30 CAR, 146 YDS, 2 TD
- RecRonnie Moore 4 REC, 81 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBGSU up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 2:43BGSU +19%
Donovan Wilson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Suder KICK)
- Q2 8:40BGSU +17%
James Morgan pass complete to Hunter Folkertsma for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Suder KICK)
- Q2 2:07KENT +9%
Nick Holley pass complete to Ernest Calhoun for 56 yds for a TD, (Shane Hynes KICK)
- Q3 7:26BGSU +9%
Josh Cleveland run for 85 yds for a TD, (Jake Suder KICK)
- Q2 3:14BGSU +8%
Fred Coppet run for 13 yds for a TD, (Jake Suder KICK)
- Q3 9:57BGSU +5%
Donovan Wilson run for a loss of 2 yards to the KntSt 43 Donovan Wilson fumbled, recovered by KntSt Elcee Refuge
FAQ
What was the final score of Kent State vs. Bowling Green?
Kent State 7, Bowling Green 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked KENT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| KENT | BGSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 254 | Total yards | 597 |
| 245 | Passing yards | 177 |
| 9 | Rushing yards | 420 |
| 10 | First downs | 35 |
| 3-12 | 3rd down | 11-17 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 15/28 | Comp/Att | 12/24 |
| 8.8 | Yards per pass | 7.4 |
| 0.4 | Yards per rush | 6.4 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 8-58 | Penalties | 4-40 |
| 19:30 | Possession | 40:30 |
Costliest call
Q3 7:38 KENT punt on 4th & 7 at BGSU 42. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.42 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:29BGSUDeric Phouthavong 19 Yd pass from James Morgan (Jake Suder Kick)7–42
- Q4 10:38BGSUDonovan Wilson 4 Yd Run (Jake Suder Kick)7–35
- Q3 7:26BGSUJosh Cleveland 85 Yd Run (Jake Suder Kick)7–28
- Q2 2:07KENTErnest Calhoun 56 Yd pass from Nick Holley (Shane Hynes Kick)7–21
- Q2 3:14BGSUFred Coppet 13 Yd Run (Jake Suder Kick)0–21
- Q2 8:40BGSUHunter Folkertsma 3 Yd pass from James Morgan (Jake Suder Kick)0–14
- Q1 2:43BGSUDonovan Wilson 3 Yd Run (Jake Suder Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BGSU Elo 1161, KENT Elo 1252 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BGSU +1.2 (48% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2016
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#12 of 113 in 2016 by biggest miss · #97 of 124 in 2016 by longest odds.
The 2016 upset archive →Bowling Green leads 47–16 · 29% have been one-possession games
| KENT | BGSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -14.4 (#104) | CORE overall | -20.0 (#116) |
| -9 / +5 | offense / defense | -11 / +9 |
| 1.02 | points / drive | 1.57 |
| 2.41 | allowed / drive | 2.87 |
| 37% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| -11 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →