Ole Miss vs. Vanderbilt: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MISSTeam statsVAN
- Q4 8:36VANBailey McElwain 3 Yd pass from Kyle Shurmur (Tommy Openshaw Kick)17–38
- Q4 14:44MISSEvan Engram 38 Yd pass from Shea Patterson (Gary Wunderlich Kick)17–31
- Q3 2:11VANRalph Webb 1 Yd Run (Tommy Openshaw Kick)10–31
- Q3 8:03VANTommy Openshaw 24 Yd Field Goal 10–24
- Q3 10:48VANRalph Webb 11 Yd Run (Tommy Openshaw Kick)10–21
- Q2 6:16VANTrent Sherfield 5 Yd pass from Kyle Shurmur (Tommy Openshaw Kick)10–14
- Q1 0:30VANRalph Webb 4 Yd Run (Tommy Openshaw Kick)10–7
- Q1 6:51MISSAkeem Judd 21 Yd pass from Shea Patterson (Gary Wunderlich Kick)10–0
- Q1 10:51MISSGary Wunderlich 23 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassShea Patterson 20/42, 222 YDS, 2 TD
- RushAkeem Judd 10 CAR, 63 YDS
- RecEvan Engram 6 REC, 102 YDS, 1 TD
- PassKyle Shurmur 17/30, 273 YDS, 2 TD
- RushRalph Webb 20 CAR, 123 YDS, 3 TD
- RecTrent Sherfield 2 REC, 72 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsVAN up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 10:48VAN +29%
Ralph Webb run for 11 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)
- Q2 6:16VAN +20%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 5 yds for a TD OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)
- Q3 2:11VAN +14%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)
- Q3 8:03VAN +10%
Tommy Openshaw 24 yd FG GOOD
- Q1 0:30VAN +10%
Ralph Webb run for 4 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)
- Q4 14:44MISS +10%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Evan Engram for 38 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Ole Miss vs. Vanderbilt?
Ole Miss 17, Vanderbilt 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MISS, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MISS | VAN | |
|---|---|---|
| 363 | Total yards | 481 |
| 273 | Passing yards | 273 |
| 90 | Rushing yards | 208 |
| 18 | First downs | 22 |
| 5-18 | 3rd down | 5-15 |
| 0-3 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 26/51 | Comp/Att | 17/30 |
| 5.4 | Yards per pass | 9.1 |
| 3.3 | Yards per rush | 4.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-51 | Penalties | 5-40 |
| 25:11 | Possession | 34:49 |
Costliest call
Q3 8:03 VAN field goal on 4th & 1 at MISS 6. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.21 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:36VANBailey McElwain 3 Yd pass from Kyle Shurmur (Tommy Openshaw Kick)17–38
- Q4 14:44MISSEvan Engram 38 Yd pass from Shea Patterson (Gary Wunderlich Kick)17–31
- Q3 2:11VANRalph Webb 1 Yd Run (Tommy Openshaw Kick)10–31
- Q3 8:03VANTommy Openshaw 24 Yd Field Goal 10–24
- Q3 10:48VANRalph Webb 11 Yd Run (Tommy Openshaw Kick)10–21
- Q2 6:16VANTrent Sherfield 5 Yd pass from Kyle Shurmur (Tommy Openshaw Kick)10–14
- Q1 0:30VANRalph Webb 4 Yd Run (Tommy Openshaw Kick)10–7
- Q1 6:51MISSAkeem Judd 21 Yd pass from Shea Patterson (Gary Wunderlich Kick)10–0
- Q1 10:51MISSGary Wunderlich 23 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (VAN Elo 1431, MISS Elo 1827 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects VAN +13.4 (20% to win) — 3.9 points clear of MISS's market line of +9.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2016
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#29 of 113 in 2016 by biggest miss · #68 of 124 in 2016 by longest odds.
The 2016 upset archive →Ole Miss leads 56–37–2 · Ole Miss has won 5 straight · 32% have been one-possession games
| MISS | VAN | |
|---|---|---|
| +4.5 (#49) | CORE overall | -1.6 (#71) |
| +8 / +3 | offense / defense | -5 / -3 |
| 2.28 | points / drive | 1.84 |
| 2.66 | allowed / drive | 2.04 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| +7 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →