Florida vs. Arkansas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FLATeam statsARK
- Q4 5:40ARKRawleigh Williams III 41 Yd Run (Adam McFain Kick)10–31
- Q4 6:41FLAEddy Pineiro 49 Yd Field Goal 10–24
- Q4 9:14ARKAdam McFain 36 Yd Field Goal 7–24
- Q2 0:16ARKDrew Morgan 7 Yd pass from Austin Allen (Adam McFain Kick)7–21
- Q1 2:44FLADuke Dawson 37 Yd Interception Return (Eddy Pineiro Kick)7–14
- Q1 5:56ARKRawleigh Williams III 6 Yd Run (Adam McFain Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:20ARKSantos Ramirez 24 Yd Interception Return (Adam McFain Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- FLA played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ARK did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.9 vs 3rd & 6.2
- FLA lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 19% explosive on a 31% success rate
- PassLuke Del Rio 19/37, 229 YDS, 2 INT
- RushMark Thompson 3 CAR, 19 YDS
- RecAntonio Callaway 4 REC, 44 YDS
- PassAustin Allen 15/26, 243 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushRawleigh Williams III 26 CAR, 148 YDS, 2 TD
- RecDrew Morgan 7 REC, 95 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsARK up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 0:16ARK +21%
Drew Morgan 7 Yd pass from Austin Allen (Adam McFain Kick)
- Q1 5:56ARK +19%
Rawleigh Williams III 6 Yd Run (Adam McFain Kick)
- Q1 12:20ARK +17%
Santos Ramirez 24 Yd Interception Return (Adam McFain Kick)
- Q1 2:44FLA +15%
Duke Dawson 37 Yd Interception Return (Eddy Pineiro Kick)
- Q4 9:19ARK +8%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Drew Morgan
- Q3 3:30ARK +8%
Austin Allen sacked by Caleb Brantley and Kylan Johnson for a loss of 9 yards to the ARKANSAS 43 ARKANSAS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Dan Skipper) to the Ark 28
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida vs. Arkansas?
Florida 10, Arkansas 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked FLA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| FLA | ARK | |
|---|---|---|
| 241 | Total yards | 466 |
| 229 | Passing yards | 243 |
| 12 | Rushing yards | 223 |
| 13 | First downs | 22 |
| 1-11 | 3rd down | 6-14 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 19/37 | Comp/Att | 15/26 |
| 6.2 | Yards per pass | 9.3 |
| 0.9 | Yards per rush | 4.6 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-34 | Penalties | 9-97 |
| 20:39 | Possession | 39:21 |
Costliest call
Q1 12:28 ARK punt on 4th & 6 at FLA 41. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.55 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:40ARKRawleigh Williams III 41 Yd Run (Adam McFain Kick)10–31
- Q4 6:41FLAEddy Pineiro 49 Yd Field Goal 10–24
- Q4 9:14ARKAdam McFain 36 Yd Field Goal 7–24
- Q2 0:16ARKDrew Morgan 7 Yd pass from Austin Allen (Adam McFain Kick)7–21
- Q1 2:44FLADuke Dawson 37 Yd Interception Return (Eddy Pineiro Kick)7–14
- Q1 5:56ARKRawleigh Williams III 6 Yd Run (Adam McFain Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:20ARKSantos Ramirez 24 Yd Interception Return (Adam McFain Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARK Elo 1571, FLA Elo 1775 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ARK +5.8 (36% to win) — 2.3 points clear of FLA's market line of +3.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2016
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#51 of 113 in 2016 by biggest miss · #94 of 124 in 2016 by longest odds · #10 of 61 in 2016 by biggest poll gap.
The 2016 upset archive →Florida leads 10–3 · 31% have been one-possession games
| FLA | ARK | |
|---|---|---|
| +17.5 (#13) | CORE overall | +5.5 (#44) |
| -5 / -23 | offense / defense | +6 / +1 |
| 1.59 | points / drive | 2.14 |
| 1.11 | allowed / drive | 2.54 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +5 | pass over expected | -0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →