Southern Miss vs. UAB: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USMTeam statsUAB
- Q4 0:10USMSOUTHERN MISS Extra point GOOD.62–27
- Q4 0:10USMSOUTHERN MISS rush for a touchdown.61–27
- Q4 7:09USMSOUTHERN MISS Extra point GOOD.55–27
- Q4 7:09USMSOUTHERN MISS pass complete for a touchdown.54–27
- Q4 9:41UABUAB pass complete for a touchdown.48–27
- Q4 12:00USMSOUTHERN MISS Extra point GOOD.48–21
- Q4 12:00USMSOUTHERN MISS rush for a touchdown.47–21
- Q3 3:04USMSOUTHERN MISS Extra point GOOD.41–21
- Q3 3:04USMSOUTHERN MISS pass complete for a touchdown.40–21
- Q3 8:13USMSOUTHERN MISS Extra point GOOD.34–21
- Q3 8:13USMSOUTHERN MISS rush for a touchdown.33–21
- Q3 10:00USMSOUTHERN MISS Extra point GOOD.27–21
- Q3 10:00USMSOUTHERN MISS pass complete for a touchdown.26–21
- Q3 11:38USMSOUTHERN MISS Extra point GOOD.20–21
- Q3 11:38USMSOUTHERN MISS pass complete for a touchdown.19–21
- Q2 4:25UABUAB Extra point GOOD.13–21
- Q2 4:25UABUAB rush for a touchdown.13–20
- Q2 8:10USMSOUTHERN MISS 25 yard field goal GOOD.13–14
- Q2 12:03USMSOUTHERN MISS 30 yard field goal GOOD.10–14
- Q1 0:23UABUAB Extra point GOOD.7–14
- Q1 0:23UABUAB pass complete for a touchdown.7–13
- Q1 7:54UABUAB Extra point GOOD.7–7
- Q1 7:54UABUAB rush for a touchdown.7–6
- Q1 11:22USMSOUTHERN MISS Extra point GOOD.7–0
- Q1 11:22USMSOUTHERN MISS pass complete for a touchdown.6–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UAB played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and USM did not face the same ones. 3rd & 11.8 vs 3rd & 8.3
- PassNick Mullens 24/39, 370 YDS, 5 TD, 1 INT
- RushKendrick Hardy 20 CAR, 106 YDS, 2 TD
- RecMarkese Triplett 4 REC, 68 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJonathan Perry 18/31, 286 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushDarrin Reaves 15 CAR, 69 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJ.J. Nelson 5 REC, 117 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSM up 20 entering the 4th quarter. Across 818 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 10:00USM +23%
Nick Mullens pass complete to James Cox for 21 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 8:13USM +20%
Nick Mullens rush for 1 yard for a TOUCHDOWN, UAB penalty offside declined
- Q3 11:38USM +19%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Dominique Sullivan for 43 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 3:04USM +17%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Marquise Ricard for 37 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 4:25UAB +17%
Darius Powell rush for 23 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 11:22USM +15%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Tyre'oune Holmes for 3 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Southern Miss vs. UAB?
Southern Miss 62, UAB 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UAB, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| USM | UAB | |
|---|---|---|
| 472 | Total yards | 431 |
| 370 | Passing yards | 286 |
| 102 | Rushing yards | 145 |
| 28 | First downs | 22 |
| 4-12 | 3rd down | 4-10 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 24/39 | Comp/Att | 18/31 |
| 9.5 | Yards per pass | 9.2 |
| 3.3 | Yards per rush | 4.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 5 |
| 6-50 | Penalties | 11-98 |
| 29:51 | Possession | 28:45 |
Costliest call
Q4 7:40 UAB go for it on 4th & 10 at UAB 19. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.83 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:10USMSOUTHERN MISS Extra point GOOD.62–27
- Q4 0:10USMSOUTHERN MISS rush for a touchdown.61–27
- Q4 7:09USMSOUTHERN MISS Extra point GOOD.55–27
- Q4 7:09USMSOUTHERN MISS pass complete for a touchdown.54–27
- Q4 9:41UABUAB pass complete for a touchdown.48–27
- Q4 12:00USMSOUTHERN MISS Extra point GOOD.48–21
- Q4 12:00USMSOUTHERN MISS rush for a touchdown.47–21
- Q3 3:04USMSOUTHERN MISS Extra point GOOD.41–21
- Q3 3:04USMSOUTHERN MISS pass complete for a touchdown.40–21
- Q3 8:13USMSOUTHERN MISS Extra point GOOD.34–21
- Q3 8:13USMSOUTHERN MISS rush for a touchdown.33–21
- Q3 10:00USMSOUTHERN MISS Extra point GOOD.27–21
- Q3 10:00USMSOUTHERN MISS pass complete for a touchdown.26–21
- Q3 11:38USMSOUTHERN MISS Extra point GOOD.20–21
- Q3 11:38USMSOUTHERN MISS pass complete for a touchdown.19–21
- Q2 4:25UABUAB Extra point GOOD.13–21
- Q2 4:25UABUAB rush for a touchdown.13–20
- Q2 8:10USMSOUTHERN MISS 25 yard field goal GOOD.13–14
- Q2 12:03USMSOUTHERN MISS 30 yard field goal GOOD.10–14
- Q1 0:23UABUAB Extra point GOOD.7–14
- Q1 0:23UABUAB pass complete for a touchdown.7–13
- Q1 7:54UABUAB Extra point GOOD.7–7
- Q1 7:54UABUAB rush for a touchdown.7–6
- Q1 11:22USMSOUTHERN MISS Extra point GOOD.7–0
- Q1 11:22USMSOUTHERN MISS pass complete for a touchdown.6–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UAB Elo 998, USM Elo 829 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UAB -9.2 (74% to win) — 4.8 points clear of USM's market line of -14. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2013
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#2 of 93 in 2013 by biggest miss · #21 of 93 in 2013 by longest odds.
The 2013 upset archive →Southern Miss leads 11–8 · 53% have been one-possession games
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →