Texas vs. TCU: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TEXTeam statsTCU
- Q4 11:55TEXTEXAS 36 yard field goal GOOD.30–7
- Q3 9:20TEXTEXAS Extra point GOOD.27–7
- Q3 9:20TEXTEXAS rush for a touchdown.26–7
- Q2 0:00TEXTEXAS 37 yard field goal GOOD.20–7
- Q2 9:48TEXTEXAS Extra point GOOD.17–7
- Q2 9:48TEXTEXAS pass complete for a touchdown.16–7
- Q1 1:24TCUTCU Extra point GOOD.10–7
- Q1 1:24TCUTCU pass complete for a touchdown.10–6
- Q1 3:07TEXTEXAS 43 yard field goal GOOD.10–0
- Q1 7:48TEXTEXAS Extra point GOOD.7–0
- Q1 7:48TEXTEXAS rush for a touchdown.6–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- TEX lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 12% explosive on a 32% success rate
- PassCase McCoy 9/19, 228 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushJohnathan Gray 22 CAR, 94 YDS
- RecMarcus Johnson 3 REC, 120 YDS, 1 TD
- PassCasey Pachall 13/34, 139 YDS, 1 INT
- RushAaron Green 6 CAR, 34 YDS
- RecLaDarius Brown 7 REC, 87 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTEX up 20 entering the 4th quarter. Across 818 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 9:48TEX +17%
Case McCoy pass complete to Marcus Johnson for 65 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 7:48TEX +17%
Malcolm Brown rush for 3 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 1:24TCU +16%
Cameron Echols-Luper pass complete to LaDarius Brown for 38 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 9:20TEX +8%
Malcolm Brown rush for 3 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 3:07TEX +8%
Anthony Fera 43 yard field goal GOOD
- Q2 0:00TEX +6%
Anthony Fera 37 yard field goal GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Texas vs. TCU?
Texas 30, TCU 7.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TCU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TEX | TCU | |
|---|---|---|
| 415 | Total yards | 246 |
| 228 | Passing yards | 201 |
| 187 | Rushing yards | 45 |
| 18 | First downs | 12 |
| 4-15 | 3rd down | 4-16 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 9/19 | Comp/Att | 17/39 |
| 12.0 | Yards per pass | 5.2 |
| 3.6 | Yards per rush | 1.9 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 6-50 | Penalties | 8-86 |
| 33:59 | Possession | 26:01 |
Costliest call
Q2 3:26 TCU punt on 4th & 1 at TCU 41. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.10 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 11:55TEXTEXAS 36 yard field goal GOOD.30–7
- Q3 9:20TEXTEXAS Extra point GOOD.27–7
- Q3 9:20TEXTEXAS rush for a touchdown.26–7
- Q2 0:00TEXTEXAS 37 yard field goal GOOD.20–7
- Q2 9:48TEXTEXAS Extra point GOOD.17–7
- Q2 9:48TEXTEXAS pass complete for a touchdown.16–7
- Q1 1:24TCUTCU Extra point GOOD.10–7
- Q1 1:24TCUTCU pass complete for a touchdown.10–6
- Q1 3:07TEXTEXAS 43 yard field goal GOOD.10–0
- Q1 7:48TEXTEXAS Extra point GOOD.7–0
- Q1 7:48TEXTEXAS rush for a touchdown.6–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TCU Elo 1663, TEX Elo 1689 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TCU -1.4 (55% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2013
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#40 of 93 in 2013 by biggest miss · #76 of 93 in 2013 by longest odds.
The 2013 upset archive →Texas leads 62–28–1 · 30% have been one-possession games
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →