Texas State vs. Texas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TXSTTeam statsTEX
- Q4 2:08TEXJames Simon 7 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)7–59
- Q4 6:00TEXGianni Spetic 48 Yd Field Goal 7–52
- Q3 5:00TEXRaleek Brown 21 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)7–49
- Q3 7:55TEXHollywood Smothers 13 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Gianni Spetic Kick)7–42
- Q3 12:46TEXCam Coleman 20 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Gianni Spetic Kick)7–35
- Q2 3:59TXSTDavian Jackson 4 Yd Run (Dylan Cunanan Kick)7–28
- Q2 5:56TEXGraceson Littleton 59 Yd Fumble Return (Gianni Spetic Kick)0–28
- Q2 7:53TEXRaleek Brown 13 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)0–21
- Q1 4:14TEXRyan Wingo 8 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Gianni Spetic Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:31TEXCam Coleman 6 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Gianni Spetic Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- TEX played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and TXST did not face the same ones. 3rd & 6.7 vs 3rd & 4.7
The scoreboard says rout. The interesting part is HOW — and whether it means anything.
Texas State never had a foothold. They run away from Texas State, 59-7 at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium. Texas led from start to finish and never let Texas State within striking distance. Arch Manning threw for 305 yards on 27 attempts with four touchdowns and ran three times for 6 yards.
- PassBrad Jackson 15/23, 150 YDS, 1 INT
- RushJaylen Jenkins 6 CAR, 34 YDS
- RecTucker Cusano 3 REC, 58 YDS
- PassArch Manning 20/27, 305 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
- RushHollywood Smothers 10 CAR, 70 YDS
- RecRyan Wingo 7 REC, 121 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTEX up 42 entering the 4th quarter. Across 170 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Texas State vs. Texas?
Texas State 7, Texas 59.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TEX) was correct.
| TXST | TEX | |
|---|---|---|
| 349 | Total yards | 516 |
| 188 | Passing yards | 360 |
| 161 | Rushing yards | 156 |
| 18 | First downs | 26 |
| 8-14 | 3rd down | 11-15 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 20/29 | Comp/Att | 26/34 |
| 6.5 | Yards per pass | 10.6 |
| 3.9 | Yards per rush | 4.3 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-30 | Penalties | 4-35 |
| 30:26 | Possession | 29:34 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:08TEXJames Simon 7 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)7–59
- Q4 6:00TEXGianni Spetic 48 Yd Field Goal 7–52
- Q3 5:00TEXRaleek Brown 21 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)7–49
- Q3 7:55TEXHollywood Smothers 13 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Gianni Spetic Kick)7–42
- Q3 12:46TEXCam Coleman 20 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Gianni Spetic Kick)7–35
- Q2 3:59TXSTDavian Jackson 4 Yd Run (Dylan Cunanan Kick)7–28
- Q2 5:56TEXGraceson Littleton 59 Yd Fumble Return (Gianni Spetic Kick)0–28
- Q2 7:53TEXRaleek Brown 13 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)0–21
- Q1 4:14TEXRyan Wingo 8 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Gianni Spetic Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:31TEXCam Coleman 6 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Gianni Spetic Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TEX Elo 1784, TXST Elo 1570 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TEX -22.6 (93% to win) — 6.9 points clear of TXST's market line of -29.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| TXST | TEX | |
|---|---|---|
| +6.5 (#46) | CORE overall | +17.3 (#18) |
| +8 / +2 | offense / defense | +10 / -8 |
| 1.56 | points / drive | 5.78 |
| 5.78 | allowed / drive | 1.56 |
| 11% | three-and-outs | 0% |
| +5 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Arch Manning produced eight of Texas's twelve explosive plays
The scoreboard says rout. The interesting part is HOW — and whether it means anything.
One team finished its drives
Texas scored on 89% of its drives to Texas State's 18%: Arch Manning (24 pts), Ryan Wingo (6 pts) and Cam Coleman (12 pts). Texas produced 12 plays of 15+ yards to Texas State's 6, led by Arch Manning (involved in 8), Ryan Wingo (involved in 4) and Cam Coleman (involved in 2). Stacked together, it was never close.
The names on it
Arch Manning threw for 305 yards on 27 attempts with four touchdowns and ran three times for 6 yards, including two of them from inside the 20, five third-down conversions and a hand in eight plays of 15 yards or more. Ryan Wingo caught seven passes for 121 yards, one of them for a touchdown, including a hand in four plays of 15 yards or more. Cam Coleman caught three passes for 70 yards, two of them for touchdowns, with that score from inside the 20 and two third-down conversions. For Texas State, Davian Jackson ran seven times for 29 yards and one score and caught one pass for 24 yards, with that score from inside the 20, five third-down conversions and a hand in five plays of 15 yards or more. Tucker Cusano caught three passes for 58 yards. Chris Dawn Jr. caught four passes for 40 yards, including three third-down conversions. Rasheem Biles was the disruptive one for Texas: 0.5 TFL, 1 INT, 1 forced fumble, 2.5 tackles.
Key players' yardage vs their per-game season norm.
What Texas State has to fix
The problems had names: Davian Jackson (1 interception).
Who got home
Three names to keep: Rasheem Biles (0.5 TFL, 1 INT, 1 forced fumble, 2.5 tackles) for Texas, Ryan Nolan (1 INT, 1 PBU, 3.5 tackles) for Texas State and Maraad Watson (1 sack, 1 TFL, 1 tackle) for Texas.
The order of events
Texas struck first through Arch Manning, led 28-7 at the half and Texas got the final points on a late touchdown by James Simon.
What it means
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
Business handled for Texas. The question now is whether the opponent told us anything. Davian Jackson was responsible for 6 of Texas State's points; there was not enough behind him.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →