#16Arch Manning

QB·Texas·20254.8 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Arch Manning is a Dual-Threat QB for Texas. Arch's 2025 season ranks in the 10th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 473 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Arch Manning's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Passing

248/404 Comp/Att3163 Pass yards26 Pass TD7 INT61.4% Comp %

Rushing

399 Rush yards10 Rush TD92 Carries4.3 Yards/carry

Air yards

Where the ball goes, and how much of the gain is the throw rather than the run after it.

Attempts

8.5y

Avg depth

6.4y

After catch

75%

Catch rate

The ball travels 8.5 yards in the air on an average throw — 0.7 yards deeper than the median. Another 6.4 comes after the catch.

Where he throws

attempts · completion rate · yards

deep

100% · 66y

100% · 20y

100% · 44y

short

78% · 91y

67% · 28y

63% · 42y

leftmiddleright

Depth and direction come from CFBD’s passing detail, which is backfilled after the games: this covers weeks 1–2 only. Spikes, throwaways and intentional grounding are excluded before any average.

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs QB peers

Efficiency10
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency65
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)10th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency65th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.13 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 1.15 EPA/play in Wk 4 vs Sam Houston (SP+ -28).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Contributor

Rotational contributor. Smaller collective or local deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@Ohio State	L7-14	30.1	17/30	170	1	1	58.0	38	0	-0.22
2	vsSan José State	W38-7	-14.3	19/30	295	4	1	74.4	23	1	0.33
3	vsUTEP	W27-10	-17.5	11/25	114	1	1	26.5	51	2	0.04
4	vsSam Houston	W55-0	-27.8	18/21	309	3	0	81.6	11	2	1.15
6	@Florida	L21-29	3.5	16/29	263	2	2	70.5	37	0	0.31
7	vsOklahoma	W23-6	18.3	21/27	166	1	0	89.0	34	0	0.42
8	@Kentucky	W16-13	1.8	12/27	132	0	0	25.0	-1	0	-0.12
9	@Mississippi State	W45-38	4.1	29/46	346	3	1	57.1	6	1	0.27
10	vsVanderbilt	W34-31	20.3	25/33	328	3	0	93.1	4	0	0.69
12	@Georgia	L10-35	24.1	27/43	251	1	1	59.7	-17	0	0.02
13	vsArkansas	W52-37	5.1	18/30	389	4	0	91.7	5	1	1.05
14	vsTexas A&M	W27-17	20.7	14/29	179	1	0	91.5	53	1	0.32
20	vsMichigan	W41-27	12.4	21/34	221	2	0	99.1	155	2	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

58.7%

Passing plays

97.2%

Rushing plays

17.6%

Standard downs

51.4%

Passing downs

73.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.20
Passing downs: 0.53
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.29 / 0.74

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2025 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.