Florida Atlantic vs. Florida: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FAUTeam statsFLA
- Q4 0:25FLAMicah Jones 6 Yd pass from Tramell Jones Jr. (Liam Padron Kick)21–66
- Q4 12:24FLADuke Clark 4 Yd Run (Patrick Durkin Kick)21–59
- Q3 1:15FAUKelby Valsin 20 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Collin Rogers Kick)21–52
- Q3 4:21FLADuke Clark 10 Yd pass from Aaron Philo (Patrick Durkin Kick)14–52
- Q3 13:08FLAJadan Baugh 6 Yd Run (Patrick Durkin Kick)14–45
- Q2 2:50FLAJadan Baugh 7 Yd Run (Patrick Durkin Kick)14–38
- Q2 4:05FLAJadan Baugh 12 Yd Run (Patrick Durkin Kick)14–31
- Q2 6:50FAUCaden Veltkamp 7 Yd Run (Collin Rogers Kick)14–24
- Q2 11:02FLAAaron Philo 3 Yd Run (Patrick Durkin Kick)7–24
- Q2 13:54FAUEthan Ervin 1 Yd Run (Collin Rogers Kick)7–17
- Q1 2:06FLAPatrick Durkin 53 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q1 6:28FLABailey Stockton 12 Yd pass from Aaron Philo (Patrick Durkin Kick)0–14
- Q1 8:41FLAVernell Brown III 49 Yd pass from Aaron Philo (Patrick Durkin Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- FLA played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and FAU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.2 vs 3rd & 5.5
The scoreboard says rout. The interesting part is HOW — and whether it means anything.
This one was over early. Florida rolls past Florida Atlantic, 66-21 at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Florida led from start to finish and never let Florida Atlantic within striking distance. Aaron Philo threw for 275 yards on 21 attempts with three touchdowns and ran six times for 20 yards and one score.
- PassCaden Veltkamp 34/52, 276 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushLeonard Farrow 10 CAR, 51 YDS
- RecKelby Valsin 10 REC, 92 YDS, 1 TD
- PassAaron Philo 16/21, 275 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushJadan Baugh 14 CAR, 160 YDS, 3 TD
- RecVernell Brown III 6 REC, 117 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFLA up 31 entering the 4th quarter. Across 343 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 8:41FLA +10%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Philo pass complete short right to #1 V.Brown III caught at FAU50, for 49 yards to the FAU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 7:18FAU +9%
PENALTY FAU Offside (#1 C.Doggette Jr.) 5 yards from FAU48 to FAU43. NO PLAY
- Q4 2:00FLA +9%
PENALTY FAU Offside (#98 B.Burris) 5 yards from FAU16 to FAU11, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY
- Q1 6:28FLA +6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 A.Philo pass complete short right to #3 B.Stockton caught at FAU11, for 12 yards to the FAU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 12:18FAU +5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 L.Farrow rush middle for 4 yards gain to the FAU29 (#44 M.Johnson)
- Q2 6:50FAU +5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Veltkamp rush middle for 7 yards gain to the FLA00 TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida Atlantic vs. Florida?
Florida Atlantic 21, Florida 66.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (FLA) was correct.
| FAU | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 396 | Total yards | 624 |
| 276 | Passing yards | 343 |
| 120 | Rushing yards | 281 |
| 25 | First downs | 30 |
| 11-22 | 3rd down | 5-9 |
| 4-7 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 34/53 | Comp/Att | 20/26 |
| 5.2 | Yards per pass | 13.2 |
| 3.2 | Yards per rush | 6.9 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 9-88 | Penalties | 3-32 |
| 28:24 | Possession | 31:36 |
Costliest call
Q4 7:59 FAU go for it on 4th & 8 at FLA 20. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.85 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:25FLAMicah Jones 6 Yd pass from Tramell Jones Jr. (Liam Padron Kick)21–66
- Q4 12:24FLADuke Clark 4 Yd Run (Patrick Durkin Kick)21–59
- Q3 1:15FAUKelby Valsin 20 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Collin Rogers Kick)21–52
- Q3 4:21FLADuke Clark 10 Yd pass from Aaron Philo (Patrick Durkin Kick)14–52
- Q3 13:08FLAJadan Baugh 6 Yd Run (Patrick Durkin Kick)14–45
- Q2 2:50FLAJadan Baugh 7 Yd Run (Patrick Durkin Kick)14–38
- Q2 4:05FLAJadan Baugh 12 Yd Run (Patrick Durkin Kick)14–31
- Q2 6:50FAUCaden Veltkamp 7 Yd Run (Collin Rogers Kick)14–24
- Q2 11:02FLAAaron Philo 3 Yd Run (Patrick Durkin Kick)7–24
- Q2 13:54FAUEthan Ervin 1 Yd Run (Collin Rogers Kick)7–17
- Q1 2:06FLAPatrick Durkin 53 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q1 6:28FLABailey Stockton 12 Yd pass from Aaron Philo (Patrick Durkin Kick)0–14
- Q1 8:41FLAVernell Brown III 49 Yd pass from Aaron Philo (Patrick Durkin Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FLA Elo 1562, FAU Elo 1285 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FLA -14.1 (81% to win) — 11.9 points clear of FAU's market line of -26. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| FAU | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| -12.1 (#119) | CORE overall | +17.6 (#17) |
| -2 / +10 | offense / defense | +10 / -8 |
| 2.10 | points / drive | 6.00 |
| 6.00 | allowed / drive | 2.10 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 9% |
| +10 | pass over expected | -5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Aaron Philo produced 7 of Florida's 14 explosive plays
The scoreboard says rout. The interesting part is HOW — and whether it means anything.
The big plays only went one way
Florida produced 14 plays of 15+ yards to Florida Atlantic's 3, chiefly Aaron Philo (involved in 7), Jadan Baugh (involved in 3) and Vernell Brown III (involved in 3). Florida scored on 91% of its drives to Florida Atlantic's 25%, led by Aaron Philo (24 pts), Jadan Baugh (18 pts) and Vernell Brown III (6 pts). Stacked together, it was never close.
Who carried it
Aaron Philo threw for 275 yards on 21 attempts with three touchdowns and ran six times for 20 yards and one score — three of them from inside the 20, two third-down conversions and a hand in seven plays of 15 yards or more. Jadan Baugh ran 14 times for 160 yards and three scores, including three of them from inside the 20 and a hand in three plays of 15 yards or more. Vernell Brown III ran one times for 14 yards and caught six passes for 117 yards, one of them for a touchdown, including a hand in three plays of 15 yards or more. For Florida Atlantic, Caden Veltkamp threw for 276 yards on 52 attempts with one touchdown and ran six times for 1 yard and one score, with two of them from inside the 20, eight third-down conversions and a hand in three plays of 15 yards or more. Kelby Valsin caught 10 passes for 92 yards, one of them for a touchdown — that score from inside the 20 and two third-down conversions. Ethan Ervin ran 16 times for 50 yards and one score, with that score from inside the 20 and two third-down conversions. DJ Coleman was the disruptive one for Florida: 1 INT, 1 PBU, 1 tackle.
What Florida Atlantic has to fix
The problems had names: Caden Veltkamp (2 interceptions and 1 lost fumble).
Who got home
Three names to keep: DJ Coleman (1 INT, 1 PBU, 1 tackle) for Florida, Dijon Johnson (1 INT, 2.5 tackles) for Florida and Jayden Sweeney (1 TFL, 1 INT, 6 tackles) for Florida Atlantic.
The way it played out
Florida struck first through Aaron Philo, led 38-14 at the half and Florida got the final points on a late touchdown by Tramell Jones Jr..
What it means
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
Business handled for Florida. The question now is whether the opponent told us anything. Caden Veltkamp was responsible for 12 of Florida Atlantic's points; there was not enough behind him.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →