Presbyterian vs. Marist: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Presbyterian4-6

▸0042

Marist1-9

0023

Final

Leonidoff FieldConference game

	1	2	3	4	T
PRES	14	14	14	0	42
MARI	13	3	0	7	23

PRESTeam statsMARI

456Total yards348

354Pass167

102Rush181

19First downs18

9-143rd down2-14

0Turnovers2

30:32Possession29:28

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:24MARITristan Shannon 60 Yd Run (Connor Mendini Kick)42–23
• Q3 0:00PRESWorth Warner 2 Yd Run (Peter Lipscombe Kick)42–16
• Q3 11:21PRESNathan Levicki 36 Yd pass from Collin Hurst (Peter Lipscombe Kick)35–16
• Q2 3:21PRESNathan Levicki 17 Yd pass from Collin Hurst (Peter Lipscombe Kick)28–16
• Q2 10:12MARIConnor Mendini 43 Yd Field Goal 21–16
• Q2 12:49PRESCincere Gill 51 Yd pass from Collin Hurst (Peter Lipscombe Kick)21–13
• Q1 0:08PRESCollin Hurst 6 Yd Run (Peter Lipscombe Kick)14–13
• Q1 2:58MARILincoln Cardillo 1 Yd Run (Connor Mendini PAT failed)7–13
• Q1 12:36MARIJackson Conners-McCarthy 62 Yd pass from Sonny Mannino (Connor Mendini Kick)7–7
• Q1 14:47PRESCincere Gill 79 Yd pass from Dominic Kibby (Peter Lipscombe Kick)7–0

How the model called it

Market line

PRES −10

Against the number

PRES covered

line PRES −10

What the numbers say

• MARI lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 37% success rate

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

MARI 100%50%PRES 100%

Kickoff159 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

MARI (top)PRES (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MARI 0%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

PRES −10

Closing total

52.5

Model line

—

Actual result

PRES 42 – 23 MARI

Leaders

Presbyterian

• PassCollin Hurst 21/27, 269 YDS, 3 TD
• RushQuante Jennings 8 CAR, 26 YDS
• RecCincere Gill 4 REC, 161 YDS, 2 TD

Marist

• PassSonny Mannino 17/35, 153 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
• RushTristan Shannon 5 CAR, 82 YDS, 1 TD
• RecJackson Conners-McCarthy 6 REC, 72 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

26.2sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

137

Points / snap

0.47

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

PRES up 26 entering the 4th quarter. Across 728 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

99%

PRES went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WTulane vs Nicholls36-7WTexas State vs Southern Miss50-36WMontana State vs Cal Poly59-19WMonmouth vs Maine51-24WDuquesne vs Long Island University47-21

Fourth downs

18 calls

MARI gave up 1.1 points to the model on fourth down.PRES 2/4 · MARI 12/13 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Presbyterian vs. Marist?

Presbyterian 42, Marist 23.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

No — the model picked MARI, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

PRES

MARI

42%

Success rate

37%

0.76

EPA / pass

-0.20

-0.05

EPA / rush

0.71

37%

Early-down success

37%

44%

Pass success

25%

40%

Rush success

56%

17%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

14%

30%

Stuffed rush rate

11%

55%

Pass rate

62%

8.0

Avg 3rd-down distance

7.9

PRES

8.0 yards to go on 3rd down

66 scrimmage snaps

MARI

7.9 yards to go on 3rd down

71 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

PRES		MARI
456	Total yards	348
354	Passing yards	167
102	Rushing yards	181
19	First downs	18
9-14	3rd down	2-14
0-1	4th down	4-5
23/33	Comp/Att	18/38
10.7	Yards per pass	4.4
3.2	Yards per rush	6.2
0	Turnovers	2
10-106	Penalties	8-74
30:32	Possession	29:28

Fourth downs

18 calls

PRES

2/4 with the model

−1.0 pts · −0.0% win prob

MARI

12/13 with the model

−1.1 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q4 7:54 MARI punt on 4th & 25 at PRES 35. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 1.07 points.

Every call, priced (18)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

PRES 6/13 scoring drives← own end zone →MARI 4/11 scoring drives

PRESTD1 pl, 74 yds· own 26Q1

MARITD5 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

PRESPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 33Q1

MARIPUNT4 pl, 27 yds· own 15Q1

PRESPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 21Q1

MARITD9 pl, 48 yds· opp 48Q1

PRESTD5 pl, 25 yds· opp 25Q1

MARIINT2 pl, 12 yds· own 9Q2

PRESTD3 pl, 50 yds· midfieldQ2

MARIFG8 pl, 44 yds· own 31Q2

PRESTD13 pl, 66 yds· own 34Q2

MARIPUNT7 pl, 13 yds· own 26Q2

PRESMISS10 pl, 62 yds· own 20Q2

MARIPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 20Q3

PRESTD4 pl, 50 yds· midfieldQ3

MARIDOWNS10 pl, 32 yds· own 24Q3

PRESPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 44Q3

MARIPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 33Q3

PRESPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 30Q3

PRESTD5 pl, 50 yds· midfieldQ3

MARIPUNT13 pl, 34 yds· own 31Q4

PRESDOWNS11 pl, 54 yds· own 20Q4

MARITD3 pl, 74 yds· own 26Q4

PRESEND2 pl, -4 yds· own 25Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:24MARITristan Shannon 60 Yd Run (Connor Mendini Kick)42–23
• Q3 0:00PRESWorth Warner 2 Yd Run (Peter Lipscombe Kick)42–16
• Q3 11:21PRESNathan Levicki 36 Yd pass from Collin Hurst (Peter Lipscombe Kick)35–16
• Q2 3:21PRESNathan Levicki 17 Yd pass from Collin Hurst (Peter Lipscombe Kick)28–16
• Q2 10:12MARIConnor Mendini 43 Yd Field Goal 21–16
• Q2 12:49PRESCincere Gill 51 Yd pass from Collin Hurst (Peter Lipscombe Kick)21–13
• Q1 0:08PRESCollin Hurst 6 Yd Run (Peter Lipscombe Kick)14–13
• Q1 2:58MARILincoln Cardillo 1 Yd Run (Connor Mendini PAT failed)7–13
• Q1 12:36MARIJackson Conners-McCarthy 62 Yd pass from Sonny Mannino (Connor Mendini Kick)7–7
• Q1 14:47PRESCincere Gill 79 Yd pass from Dominic Kibby (Peter Lipscombe Kick)7–0

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →