Ohio State vs. Notre Dame: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
OSUTeam statsND
- Q4 0:26OSUJayden Fielding 33 Yd Field Goal 34–23
- Q4 4:15NDJaden Greathouse 30 Yd pass from Riley Leonard (Jordan Faison Pass to Beaux Collins for Two-Point Conversion)31–23
- Q3 3:03NDJaden Greathouse 34 Yd pass from Riley Leonard (Riley Leonard Pass to Jeremiyah Love for Two-Point Conversion)31–15
- Q3 7:52OSUJayden Fielding 46 Yd Field Goal 31–7
- Q3 12:46OSUQuinshon Judkins 1 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)28–7
- Q2 0:27OSUQuinshon Judkins 6 Yd pass from Will Howard (Jayden Fielding Kick)21–7
- Q2 6:15OSUQuinshon Judkins 9 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)14–7
- Q2 14:10OSUJeremiah Smith 8 Yd pass from Will Howard (Jayden Fielding Kick)7–7
- Q1 5:15NDRiley Leonard 1 Yd Run (Mitch Jeter Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Notre Dame struck first and fought to the last whistle, but a brutal second quarter under the Atlanta roof had already decided it.
Notre Dame had the first word. Five minutes into the night, Riley Leonard punched it in from a yard out, the Irish sideline roared, and for one quarter under the roof at Mercedes-Benz Stadium it looked like the underdog might just write the story it came to write. Then the second quarter happened, and the night belonged to somebody else.
It went fast and it went all at once. Will Howard found Jeremiah Smith for eight yards and the lead. Quinshon Judkins bullied in from nine. And with twenty-seven seconds left before the half, Howard floated one to Judkins from six yards out — a running back catching the dagger throw — and Ohio State walked to the locker room having scored three touchdowns to nothing in a single quarter. The game was not over. It only felt that way.
- PassWill Howard 17/21, 231 YDS, 2 TD
- RushQuinshon Judkins 11 CAR, 100 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJeremiah Smith 5 REC, 88 YDS, 1 TD
- PassRiley Leonard 22/31, 255 YDS, 2 TD
- RushRiley Leonard 17 CAR, 40 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJaden Greathouse 6 REC, 128 YDS, 2 TD
FAQ
What was the final score of Ohio State vs. Notre Dame?
Ohio State 34, Notre Dame 23.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (OSU) was correct.
| OSU | ND | |
|---|---|---|
| 445 | Total yards | 308 |
| 231 | Passing yards | 255 |
| 214 | Rushing yards | 53 |
| 22 | First downs | 19 |
| 9-12 | 3rd down | 5-12 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 3-4 |
| 17/21 | Comp/Att | 22/32 |
| 11.0 | Yards per pass | 8.0 |
| 5.2 | Yards per rush | 2.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-58 | Penalties | 3-30 |
| 32:25 | Possession | 27:35 |
- Q4 0:26OSUJayden Fielding 33 Yd Field Goal 34–23
- Q4 4:15NDJaden Greathouse 30 Yd pass from Riley Leonard (Jordan Faison Pass to Beaux Collins for Two-Point Conversion)31–23
- Q3 3:03NDJaden Greathouse 34 Yd pass from Riley Leonard (Riley Leonard Pass to Jeremiyah Love for Two-Point Conversion)31–15
- Q3 7:52OSUJayden Fielding 46 Yd Field Goal 31–7
- Q3 12:46OSUQuinshon Judkins 1 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)28–7
- Q2 0:27OSUQuinshon Judkins 6 Yd pass from Will Howard (Jayden Fielding Kick)21–7
- Q2 6:15OSUQuinshon Judkins 9 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)14–7
- Q2 14:10OSUJeremiah Smith 8 Yd pass from Will Howard (Jayden Fielding Kick)7–7
- Q1 5:15NDRiley Leonard 1 Yd Run (Mitch Jeter Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ND Elo 2169, OSU Elo 2196 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects ND +1.1 (48% to win) — 7.4 points clear of ND's market line of +8.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesOhio State leads 7–2 · Ohio State has won 7 straight · 33% have been one-possession games
| OSU | ND | |
|---|---|---|
| +43.5 (#1) | CORE overall | +31.5 (#2) |
| +25 / -19 | offense / defense | +12 / -19 |
| 3.33 | points / drive | 3.19 |
| 0.97 | allowed / drive | 1.31 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| +5 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Ohio State Builds the Lead, Then Holds the Door
Notre Dame struck first and fought to the last whistle, but a brutal second quarter under the Atlanta roof had already decided it.
The Knockout That Wasn't Quite
Then came the swing that should have ended it. On the first snap of the third quarter, Judkins took a handoff, found a crease, and was suddenly gone — seventy yards, all the way to the Notre Dame 5, the kind of run that empties a stadium of its noise. He finished the job himself moments later. A Jayden Fielding field goal made it a three-score lead, and you could feel the trophy starting to lean one way.
But Notre Dame would not go quietly, and Jaden Greathouse made sure of it. Leonard hit him for 34 and a touchdown late in the third, and they went for two and got it. Early in the fourth, the same connection — Leonard to Greathouse for 30 more — and another two-point try converted on a trick toss. Two scores in the building again, the Irish believing, the comeback real.
The difference was the finishing. All night, Ohio State turned its chances into points and Notre Dame kept running out of room. With the game hanging there in the fourth, the Irish drove to the Ohio State 8 — close enough to taste it — and the drive simply died, a Leonard throw to Mitchell Evans falling incomplete with nothing to show for it. Earlier they'd given the ball away on a fumble. Those are the empty trips that decide a title.
And when Notre Dame finally clawed within striking distance, Smith slammed the window shut. Howard dropped one over the top to the freshman for 56 yards down to the 10, and the field that had felt so long for the Irish all night was suddenly very short for the Buckeyes. Fielding's late field goal made it 34-23, and that was the ballgame. Notre Dame fought to the last whistle. Ohio State just never let the door swing all the way back open.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →