West Virginia vs. Penn State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WVUTeam statsPSU
- Q4 0:06PSUBeau Pribula 5 Yd Run (Alex Felkins Kick)15–38
- Q4 3:34WVUGarrett Greene 1 Yd Run (Garrett Greene Pass to CJ Donaldson Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)15–31
- Q4 7:32PSUMalik McClain 25 Yd pass from Drew Allar (Alex Felkins Kick)7–31
- Q4 14:57PSUAlex Felkins 25 Yd Field Goal 7–24
- Q3 8:36PSUKeAndre Lambert-Smith 12 Yd pass from Drew Allar (Alex Felkins Kick)7–21
- Q2 9:10PSUNicholas Singleton 2 Yd Run (Sander Sahaydak Kick)7–14
- Q2 14:14WVUCJ Donaldson Jr. 1 Yd Run (Michael Hayes Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:13PSUKeAndre Lambert-Smith 72 Yd pass from Drew Allar (Sander Sahaydak Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassGarrett Greene 16/27, 162 YDS
- RushCJ Donaldson 18 CAR, 81 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDevin Carter 6 REC, 90 YDS
- PassDrew Allar 21/29, 325 YDS, 3 TD
- RushNicholas Singleton 13 CAR, 70 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKeAndre Lambert-Smith 4 REC, 123 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsPSU up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 839 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 14:20WVU +11%
C.Donaldson rushed to PSU End Zone for 1 yards. C.Donaldson for 1 yards, TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 9:15PSU +10%
N.Singleton rushed to WVU End Zone for 2 yards. N.Singleton for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 10:25PSU +7%
D.Allar pass complete to PSU 28. Catch made by K.Lambert-Smith at PSU 28. Gain of 72 yards. K.Lambert-Smith for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 8:44PSU +5%
D.Allar pass complete to WVU 12. Catch made by K.Lambert-Smith at WVU 12. Gain of 12 yards. K.Lambert-Smith for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of West Virginia vs. Penn State?
West Virginia 15, Penn State 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (PSU) was correct.
| WVU | PSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 308 | Total yards | 478 |
| 162 | Passing yards | 332 |
| 146 | Rushing yards | 146 |
| 17 | First downs | 27 |
| 4-14 | 3rd down | 3-9 |
| 3-6 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 16/27 | Comp/Att | 22/30 |
| 6.0 | Yards per pass | 11.1 |
| 3.7 | Yards per rush | 4.2 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-55 | Penalties | 1-5 |
| 31:16 | Possession | 28:44 |
Costliest call
Q3 2:57 WVU go for it on 4th & 7 at PSU 27. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.50 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:06PSUBeau Pribula 5 Yd Run (Alex Felkins Kick)15–38
- Q4 3:34WVUGarrett Greene 1 Yd Run (Garrett Greene Pass to CJ Donaldson Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)15–31
- Q4 7:32PSUMalik McClain 25 Yd pass from Drew Allar (Alex Felkins Kick)7–31
- Q4 14:57PSUAlex Felkins 25 Yd Field Goal 7–24
- Q3 8:36PSUKeAndre Lambert-Smith 12 Yd pass from Drew Allar (Alex Felkins Kick)7–21
- Q2 9:10PSUNicholas Singleton 2 Yd Run (Sander Sahaydak Kick)7–14
- Q2 14:14WVUCJ Donaldson Jr. 1 Yd Run (Michael Hayes Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:13PSUKeAndre Lambert-Smith 72 Yd pass from Drew Allar (Sander Sahaydak Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (PSU Elo 1833, WVU Elo 1438 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects PSU -18.2 (88% to win) — 2.3 points clear of WVU's market line of -20.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesPenn State leads 50–9–2 · Penn State has won 6 straight · 23% have been one-possession games
| WVU | PSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.4 (#43) | CORE overall | +21.5 (#11) |
| +5 / -0 | offense / defense | +6 / -15 |
| 2.69 | points / drive | 2.86 |
| 2.22 | allowed / drive | 1.18 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| -10 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →