Utah Tech vs. Montana State: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Utah Tech

0020

Montana State

▸0063

Final

Bobcat Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
UTAH	3	7	0	10	20
MONT	14	21	7	21	63

UTAHTeam statsMONT

309Total yards638

260Pass231

49Rush407

16First downs29

4-113rd down9-12

3Turnovers0

24:38Possession35:22

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:46MONTRylan Schlepp 12 Yd pass from Jordan Reed (Brendan Hall Kick)20–63
• Q4 7:14UTAHRickie Johnson 17 Yd pass from Kobe Tracy (Connor Brooksby Kick)20–56
• Q4 9:13MONTJared White 79 Yd Run (Brendan Hall Kick)13–56
• Q4 10:13UTAHConnor Brooksby 48 Yd Field Goal 13–49
• Q4 14:08MONTSean Chambers 9 Yd Run (Brendan Hall Kick)10–49
• Q3 6:16MONTScottre Humphrey 9 Yd Run (Brendan Hall Kick)10–42
• Q2 0:58MONTJulius Davis 8 Yd Run (Brendan Hall Kick)10–35
• Q2 3:31UTAHBeau Sparks 4 Yd pass from Boone Abbott (Connor Brooksby Kick)10–28
• Q2 7:52MONTScottre Humphrey 29 Yd Run (Brendan Hall Kick)3–28
• Q2 11:54MONTJared White 47 Yd pass from Tommy Mellott (Brendan Hall Kick)3–21
• Q1 0:56UTAHConnor Brooksby 32 Yd Field Goal 3–14
• Q1 2:30MONTSean Chambers 3 Yd Run (Brendan Hall Kick)0–14
• Q1 4:55MONTScottre Humphrey 2 Yd Run (Brendan Hall Kick)0–7

What the numbers say

• UTAH played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MONT did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.9 vs 3rd & 5.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

MONT 100%50%UTAH 100%

Kickoff144 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

MONT (top)UTAH (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MONT 100%

Leaders

Utah Tech

• PassBoone Abbott 11/19, 143 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
• RushRonnie Walker Jr. 10 CAR, 52 YDS
• RecBeau Sparks 6 REC, 82 YDS, 1 TD

Montana State

• PassTommy Mellott 8/14, 157 YDS, 1 TD
• RushScottre Humphrey 14 CAR, 114 YDS, 3 TD
• RecClevan Thomas 5 REC, 59 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

28.1sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

128

Points / snap

0.65

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

MONT up 32 entering the 4th quarter. Across 371 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

MONT went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WArkansas vs Western Carolina56-13WTexas A&M vs New Mexico52-10WArizona vs Northern Arizona38-3WNC State vs VMI45-7WAir Force vs San Diego State49-10

Fourth downs

9 calls

UTAH gave up 0.4 points to the model on fourth down.UTAH 5/6 · MONT 3/3 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Utah Tech vs. Montana State?

Utah Tech 20, Montana State 63.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (MONT) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

UTAH

MONT

42%

Success rate

54%

0.18

EPA / pass

1.09

0.18

EPA / rush

0.46

44%

Early-down success

49%

39%

Pass success

61%

54%

Rush success

51%

14%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

18%

8%

Stuffed rush rate

19%

77%

Pass rate

25%

8.9

Avg 3rd-down distance

5.5

UTAH

8.9 yards to go on 3rd down

57 scrimmage snaps

MONT

5.5 yards to go on 3rd down

71 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

UTAH		MONT
309	Total yards	638
260	Passing yards	231
49	Rushing yards	407
16	First downs	29
4-11	3rd down	9-12
0-0	4th down	1-2
21/41	Comp/Att	12/18
6.3	Yards per pass	12.8
3.3	Yards per rush	7.7
3	Turnovers	0
7-31	Penalties	3-33
24:38	Possession	35:22

Fourth downs

9 calls

UTAH

5/6 with the model

−0.4 pts · −0.0% win prob

MONT

3/3 with the model

nothing given up

Costliest call

Q1 6:53 UTAH punt on 4th & 2 at UTAH 9. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.44 points.

Every call, priced (9)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

UTAH 4/12 scoring drives← own end zone →MONT 9/12 scoring drives

MONTDOWNS13 pl, 74 yds· own 25Q1

UTAHPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 1Q1

MONTTD4 pl, 53 yds· own 47Q1

UTAHINT2 pl, -5 yds· own 25Q1

MONTTD5 pl, 15 yds· opp 15Q1

UTAHFG5 pl, 61 yds· own 25Q1

MONTTD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

UTAHPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q2

MONTTD4 pl, 58 yds· own 42Q2

UTAHTD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2

MONTPUNT4 pl, 27 yds· own 25Q2

UTAHINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 20Q2

MONTTD3 pl, 14 yds· opp 14Q2

UTAHEND2 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q2

UTAHPUNT6 pl, 15 yds· own 25Q3

MONTTD13 pl, 72 yds· own 28Q3

UTAHPUNT8 pl, 19 yds· own 25Q3

MONTTD5 pl, 87 yds· own 13Q3

UTAHFG11 pl, 44 yds· own 25Q4

MONTTD2 pl, 86 yds· own 14Q4

UTAHTD4 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4

MONTTD9 pl, 67 yds· own 33Q4

UTAHINT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q4

MONTEND2 pl, -8 yds· own 26Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:46MONTRylan Schlepp 12 Yd pass from Jordan Reed (Brendan Hall Kick)20–63
• Q4 7:14UTAHRickie Johnson 17 Yd pass from Kobe Tracy (Connor Brooksby Kick)20–56
• Q4 9:13MONTJared White 79 Yd Run (Brendan Hall Kick)13–56
• Q4 10:13UTAHConnor Brooksby 48 Yd Field Goal 13–49
• Q4 14:08MONTSean Chambers 9 Yd Run (Brendan Hall Kick)10–49
• Q3 6:16MONTScottre Humphrey 9 Yd Run (Brendan Hall Kick)10–42
• Q2 0:58MONTJulius Davis 8 Yd Run (Brendan Hall Kick)10–35
• Q2 3:31UTAHBeau Sparks 4 Yd pass from Boone Abbott (Connor Brooksby Kick)10–28
• Q2 7:52MONTScottre Humphrey 29 Yd Run (Brendan Hall Kick)3–28
• Q2 11:54MONTJared White 47 Yd pass from Tommy Mellott (Brendan Hall Kick)3–21
• Q1 0:56UTAHConnor Brooksby 32 Yd Field Goal 3–14
• Q1 2:30MONTSean Chambers 3 Yd Run (Brendan Hall Kick)0–14
• Q1 4:55MONTScottre Humphrey 2 Yd Run (Brendan Hall Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →