Tulsa vs. Northern Illinois: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TLSATeam statsNIU
- Q4 4:50TLSAChase Meyer 22 Yd Field Goal 22–14
- Q4 8:33TLSATahj Gary 17 Yd Run (Chase Meyer Kick)19–14
- Q3 0:00TLSAChase Meyer 36 Yd Field Goal 12–14
- Q3 5:34NIUJustin Lynch 29 Yd Run (Kanon Woodill Kick)9–14
- Q2 2:59NIUTrayvon Rudolph 6 Yd pass from Ethan Hampton (Jake Seibert Kick)9–7
- Q2 14:02TLSAAnthony Watkins 1 Yd Run (Chase Meyer Kick)9–0
- Q1 2:04TLSATeam Safety 2–0
How the model called it
- PassCardell Williams 8/20, 102 YDS, 2 INT
- RushAnthony Watkins 23 CAR, 91 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKamdyn Benjamin 4 REC, 53 YDS
- PassEthan Hampton 13/23, 97 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushJustin Lynch 8 CAR, 84 YDS, 1 TD
- RecGrayson Barnes 3 REC, 40 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNIU up 2 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,935 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 8:33TLSA +40%
Tahj Gary run for 17 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK)
- Q3 5:34NIU +28%
Justin Lynch run for 29 yds for a TD (Kanon Woodill KICK)
- Q2 14:02TLSA +20%
Anthony Watkins run for 1 yd for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK)
- Q2 2:59NIU +19%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 6 yds for a TD (Jake Seibert KICK)
- Q3 0:00TLSA +14%
Chase Meyer 36 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 11:23TLSA +14%
Cardell Williams pass incomplete to Marquis Shoulders
FAQ
What was the final score of Tulsa vs. Northern Illinois?
Tulsa 22, Northern Illinois 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked NIU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TLSA | NIU | |
|---|---|---|
| 281 | Total yards | 295 |
| 102 | Passing yards | 128 |
| 179 | Rushing yards | 167 |
| 17 | First downs | 18 |
| 6-15 | 3rd down | 5-14 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-4 |
| 8/20 | Comp/Att | 17/29 |
| 5.1 | Yards per pass | 4.4 |
| 3.7 | Yards per rush | 4.1 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 3-29 | Penalties | 5-38 |
| 27:48 | Possession | 32:12 |
Costliest call
Q3 9:33 TLSA punt on 4th & 4 at NIU 46. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.61 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:50TLSAChase Meyer 22 Yd Field Goal 22–14
- Q4 8:33TLSATahj Gary 17 Yd Run (Chase Meyer Kick)19–14
- Q3 0:00TLSAChase Meyer 36 Yd Field Goal 12–14
- Q3 5:34NIUJustin Lynch 29 Yd Run (Kanon Woodill Kick)9–14
- Q2 2:59NIUTrayvon Rudolph 6 Yd pass from Ethan Hampton (Jake Seibert Kick)9–7
- Q2 14:02TLSAAnthony Watkins 1 Yd Run (Chase Meyer Kick)9–0
- Q1 2:04TLSATeam Safety 2–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NIU Elo 1263, TLSA Elo 1280 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NIU -1.7 (56% to win) — 2.3 points clear of TLSA's market line of -4. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| TLSA | NIU | |
|---|---|---|
| -17.5 (#118) | CORE overall | -4.3 (#84) |
| -6 / +12 | offense / defense | -2 / +3 |
| 1.77 | points / drive | 2.33 |
| 3.02 | allowed / drive | 1.88 |
| 34% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| -8 | pass over expected | -5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →