Maine vs. Campbell: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Maine0-1
Campbell
▸Final
Barker-Lane StadiumConference game
MAINTeam statsCAMP
492Total yards410
486Pass242
6Rush168
21First downs25
6-113rd down5-10
3Turnovers1
27:36Possession32:24
- Q4 6:12MAINRohan Jones 18 Yd pass from Derek Robertson (Cody Williams Kick)28–34
- Q4 14:53MAINRohan Jones 33 Yd pass from Derek Robertson (Cody Williams Kick)21–34
- Q3 3:09CAMPJalen Kelsey 33 Yd pass from Hajj-Malik Williams (Caleb Dowden PAT blocked)14–34
- Q3 7:44MAINJamie Lamson 26 Yd pass from Derek Robertson (Cody Williams Kick)14–28
- Q2 5:07CAMPChris McKay Jr. 5 Yd Run (Caleb Dowden Kick)7–28
- Q2 9:16CAMPLamagea McDowell 7 Yd Run (Caleb Dowden Kick)7–21
- Q2 12:11CAMPJasiah Provillon 5 Yd pass from Hajj-Malik Williams (Caleb Dowden Kick)7–14
- Q1 4:46CAMPLamagea McDowell 1 Yd Run (Caleb Dowden Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:24MAINJamie Lamson 11 Yd pass from Derek Robertson (Cody Williams Kick)7–0
How the model called it
Market line
CAMP −13
Against the number
MAIN covered
line CAMP −13
What the numbers say
- MAIN played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and CAMP did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.4 vs 3rd & 5.4
- MAIN lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 20% explosive on a 39% success rate
Kickoff156 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
CAMP (top)MAIN (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: CAMP 100%
Closing line
CAMP −13
Closing total
61.0
Model line
—
Actual result
MAIN 28 – 34 CAMP
Maine
- PassDerek Robertson 35/51, 490 YDS, 4 TD, 2 INT
- RushTrevin Ewing 1 CAR, 13 YDS
- RecJoe Gillette 6 REC, 135 YDS
Campbell
- PassHajj-Malik Williams 26/33, 242 YDS, 2 TD
- RushLamagea McDowell 26 CAR, 114 YDS, 2 TD
- RecVJ Wilkins 8 REC, 79 YDS
24.8sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
140
Points / snap
0.44
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCAMP up 20 entering the 4th quarter. Across 817 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
98%
CAMP went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Maine vs. Campbell?
Maine 28, Campbell 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (CAMP) was correct.
MAIN
CAMP
39%
Success rate
51%
0.53
EPA / pass
0.28
-0.91
EPA / rush
0.23
36%
Early-down success
51%
44%
Pass success
54%
9%
Rush success
47%
20%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
7%
27%
Stuffed rush rate
11%
83%
Pass rate
49%
8.4
Avg 3rd-down distance
5.4
MAIN
8.4 yards to go on 3rd down
65 scrimmage snaps
CAMP
5.4 yards to go on 3rd down
75 scrimmage snaps
| MAIN | CAMP | |
|---|---|---|
| 492 | Total yards | 410 |
| 486 | Passing yards | 242 |
| 6 | Rushing yards | 168 |
| 21 | First downs | 25 |
| 6-11 | 3rd down | 5-10 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 36/53 | Comp/Att | 26/33 |
| 9.2 | Yards per pass | 7.3 |
| 0.5 | Yards per rush | 4.3 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 8-76 | Penalties | 3-25 |
| 27:36 | Possession | 32:24 |
MAIN
4/5 with the model
−0.1 pts · −0.0% win prob
CAMP
1/4 with the model
−1.5 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q3 11:42 CAMP punt on 4th & 2 at CAMP 48. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.88 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishMAIN 4/12 scoring drives← own end zone →CAMP 5/13 scoring drives
CAMPPUNT6 pl, 27 yds· own 25Q1
MAINTD7 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q1
CAMPTD11 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q1
MAINFUM4 pl, 61 yds· own 20Q1
CAMPTD13 pl, 81 yds· own 19Q1
MAINPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q2
CAMPTD3 pl, 48 yds· opp 48Q2
MAININT3 pl, 34 yds· own 25Q2
CAMPTD5 pl, 72 yds· own 28Q2
MAINDOWNS10 pl, 68 yds· own 25Q2
CAMPEND1 pl, 4 yds· own 7Q2
MAINPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 25Q3
CAMPPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 42Q3
MAINPUNT7 pl, 21 yds· own 15Q3
CAMPFUM1 pl, -5 yds· own 40Q3
MAINTD3 pl, 35 yds· opp 35Q3
CAMPTD9 pl, 72 yds· own 28Q3
MAINTD9 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
CAMPPUNT5 pl, 17 yds· own 25Q4
MAINPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 21Q4
CAMPPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 22Q4
MAINTD9 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q4
CAMPPUNT5 pl, 23 yds· own 25Q4
MAININT4 pl, 10 yds· own 14Q4
CAMPEND7 pl, 23 yds· opp 39Q4
- Q4 6:12MAINRohan Jones 18 Yd pass from Derek Robertson (Cody Williams Kick)28–34
- Q4 14:53MAINRohan Jones 33 Yd pass from Derek Robertson (Cody Williams Kick)21–34
- Q3 3:09CAMPJalen Kelsey 33 Yd pass from Hajj-Malik Williams (Caleb Dowden PAT blocked)14–34
- Q3 7:44MAINJamie Lamson 26 Yd pass from Derek Robertson (Cody Williams Kick)14–28
- Q2 5:07CAMPChris McKay Jr. 5 Yd Run (Caleb Dowden Kick)7–28
- Q2 9:16CAMPLamagea McDowell 7 Yd Run (Caleb Dowden Kick)7–21
- Q2 12:11CAMPJasiah Provillon 5 Yd pass from Hajj-Malik Williams (Caleb Dowden Kick)7–14
- Q1 4:46CAMPLamagea McDowell 1 Yd Run (Caleb Dowden Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:24MAINJamie Lamson 11 Yd pass from Derek Robertson (Cody Williams Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →