Indiana State vs. Indiana: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Indiana State

07

Indiana0-1

▸0041

Final

Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)

	1	2	3	4	T
INDI	0	7	0	0	7
IU	21	3	7	10	41

INDITeam statsIU

93Total yards558

21Pass344

72Rush214

8First downs33

2-113rd down12-16

1Turnovers1

23:11Possession36:49

Scoring plays

• Q4 2:43IUNicolas Radicic 21 Yd Field Goal 7–41
• Q4 10:50IUJosh Henderson 3 Yd Run (Nicolas Radicic Kick)7–38
• Q3 1:39IUChristian Turner 1 Yd Run (Nicolas Radicic Kick)7–31
• Q2 0:17IUChris Freeman 28 Yd Field Goal 7–24
• Q2 2:00INDIMaddix Blackwell 75 Yd Fumble Return (Stephen Ruiz Kick)7–21
• Q1 2:04IUTayven Jackson 10 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)0–21
• Q1 8:52IUJaylin Lucas 25 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)0–14
• Q1 12:04IUJaylin Lucas 25 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

IU −31

Against the number

IU covered

line IU −31

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

IU 100%50%INDI 100%

Kickoff147 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

IU (top)INDI (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: IU 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

IU −31

Closing total

45.0

Model line

—

Actual result

INDI 7 – 41 IU

Leaders

Indiana State

• PassEvan Olaes 3/9, 21 YDS, 1 INT
• RushKorbin Allen 5 CAR, 24 YDS
• RecHarry Van Dyne 1 REC, 15 YDS

Indiana

• PassTayven Jackson 18/21, 236 YDS
• RushJaylin Lucas 10 CAR, 88 YDS, 2 TD
• RecOmar Cooper Jr. 7 REC, 101 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

28.5sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

126

Points / snap

0.38

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

IU up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 553 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

IU went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WSMU vs Louisiana Tech38-14WPresbyterian vs Virginia University Of Lynchburg48-17WDuke vs Northwestern38-14WArkansas State vs Stony Brook31-7WHouston vs Sam Houston38-7

Fourth downs

14 calls

INDI gave up 0.8 points to the model on fourth down.INDI 7/8 · IU 4/4 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Indiana State vs. Indiana?

Indiana State 7, Indiana 41.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (IU) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

INDI

IU

27%

Success rate

54%

-0.63

EPA / pass

0.46

-0.09

EPA / rush

0.52

30%

Early-down success

49%

13%

Pass success

54%

35%

Rush success

54%

5%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

15%

17%

Stuffed rush rate

3%

34%

Pass rate

52%

7.7

Avg 3rd-down distance

5.8

INDI

7.7 yards to go on 3rd down

44 scrimmage snaps

IU

5.8 yards to go on 3rd down

82 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

INDI		IU
93	Total yards	558
21	Passing yards	344
72	Rushing yards	214
8	First downs	33
2-11	3rd down	12-16
0-1	4th down	0-0
3/11	Comp/Att	27/37
1.9	Yards per pass	9.3
2.3	Yards per rush	5.1
1	Turnovers	1
8-65	Penalties	7-60
23:11	Possession	36:49

Fourth downs

14 calls

INDI

7/8 with the model

−0.8 pts · −0.0% win prob

IU

4/4 with the model

nothing given up

Costliest call

Q2 6:05 INDI go for it on 4th & 8 at IU 13. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.79 points.

Every call, priced (14)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

INDI 0/10 scoring drives← own end zone →IU 8/11 scoring drives

INDIPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 25Q1

IUTD4 pl, 73 yds· own 27Q1

INDIPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 35Q1

IUTD6 pl, 81 yds· own 19Q1

INDIPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q1

IUTD9 pl, 71 yds· own 29Q1

INDIPUNT5 pl, 11 yds· own 25Q1

IUPUNT5 pl, 24 yds· own 20Q1

INDIINT12 pl, 67 yds· own 20Q2

IUTD8 pl, 55 yds· own 20Q2

IUFG10 pl, 42 yds· own 48Q2

INDIEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q2

IUPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 27Q3

INDIPUNT7 pl, 18 yds· own 36Q3

IUTD13 pl, 93 yds· own 7Q3

INDIPUNT3 pl, -9 yds· own 19Q3

IUTD7 pl, 45 yds· opp 45Q4

INDIPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 35Q4

IUFG15 pl, 74 yds· own 23Q4

INDIPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q4

IUEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 40Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 2:43IUNicolas Radicic 21 Yd Field Goal 7–41
• Q4 10:50IUJosh Henderson 3 Yd Run (Nicolas Radicic Kick)7–38
• Q3 1:39IUChristian Turner 1 Yd Run (Nicolas Radicic Kick)7–31
• Q2 0:17IUChris Freeman 28 Yd Field Goal 7–24
• Q2 2:00INDIMaddix Blackwell 75 Yd Fumble Return (Stephen Ruiz Kick)7–21
• Q1 2:04IUTayven Jackson 10 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)0–21
• Q1 8:52IUJaylin Lucas 25 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)0–14
• Q1 12:04IUJaylin Lucas 25 Yd Run (Chris Freeman Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →