Idaho vs. Nevada: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Idaho

▸0033

Nevada0-1

06

Final

Mackay Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
IDAH	14	3	10	6	33
NEV	3	3	0	0	6

IDAHTeam statsNEV

463Total yards266

313Pass148

150Rush118

18First downs14

3-123rd down5-16

1Turnovers3

33:58Possession26:02

Scoring plays

• Q4 7:12IDAHRicardo Chavez 29 Yd Field Goal 33–6
• Q4 12:35IDAHRicardo Chavez 43 Yd Field Goal 30–6
• Q3 1:06IDAHRicardo Chavez 34 Yd Field Goal 27–6
• Q3 11:53IDAHAlex Moore 15 Yd pass from Gevani McCoy (Ricardo Chavez Kick)24–6
• Q2 0:03IDAHRicardo Chavez 26 Yd Field Goal 17–6
• Q2 9:36NEVBrandon Talton 44 Yd Field Goal 14–6
• Q1 0:01IDAHNick Romano 15 Yd Run (Ricardo Chavez Kick)14–3
• Q1 11:40NEVBrandon Talton 29 Yd Field Goal 7–3
• Q1 14:47IDAHTuron Ivy Jr. 75 Yd pass from Gevani McCoy (Ricardo Chavez Kick)7–0

How the model called it

Market line

IDAH −4

Against the number

IDAH covered

line IDAH −4

What the numbers say

• IDAH played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and NEV did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.7 vs 3rd & 5.0

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

NEV 100%50%IDAH 100%

Kickoff134 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

NEV (top)IDAH (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: NEV 0%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

IDAH −4

Closing total

51.5

Model line

—

Actual result

IDAH 33 – 6 NEV

Leaders

Idaho

• PassGevani McCoy 15/21, 313 YDS, 2 TD
• RushAnthony Woods 18 CAR, 71 YDS
• RecHayden Hatten 5 REC, 85 YDS

Nevada

• PassBrendon Lewis 12/24, 104 YDS, 1 INT
• RushSean Dollars 9 CAR, 48 YDS
• RecJamaal Bell 8 REC, 67 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

26.9sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

123

Points / snap

0.32

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

IDAH up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 669 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

99%

IDAH went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WUtah vs Florida24-11WMiami vs Miami (OH)38-3WJames Madison vs Bucknell38-3WTroy vs Stephen F. Austin48-30WNorthwestern vs UTEP38-7

Fourth downs

17 calls

NEV gave up 1.8 points to the model on fourth down.IDAH 8/9 · NEV 6/8 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Idaho vs. Nevada?

Idaho 33, Nevada 6.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

No — the model picked NEV, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

IDAH

NEV

40%

Success rate

38%

0.66

EPA / pass

-0.22

0.13

EPA / rush

0.17

41%

Early-down success

38%

40%

Pass success

35%

41%

Rush success

42%

21%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

8%

24%

Stuffed rush rate

25%

40%

Pass rate

61%

7.7

Avg 3rd-down distance

5.0

IDAH

7.7 yards to go on 3rd down

62 scrimmage snaps

NEV

5.0 yards to go on 3rd down

61 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

IDAH		NEV
463	Total yards	266
313	Passing yards	148
150	Rushing yards	118
18	First downs	14
3-12	3rd down	5-16
3-3	4th down	1-3
15/21	Comp/Att	20/38
14.9	Yards per pass	3.9
3.9	Yards per rush	4.7
1	Turnovers	3
3-30	Penalties	3-15
33:58	Possession	26:02

Fourth downs

17 calls

IDAH

8/9 with the model

−0.5 pts · −0.0% win prob

NEV

6/8 with the model

−1.8 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q3 10:40 NEV go for it on 4th & 14 at NEV 21. The model preferred punt, a gap of 1.20 points.

Every call, priced (17)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

IDAH 7/11 scoring drives← own end zone →NEV 2/9 scoring drives

IDAHTD1 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

NEVFG7 pl, 53 yds· own 37Q1

IDAHFUM1 pl, 14 yds· own 29Q1

IDAHPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 4Q1

NEVINT12 pl, 54 yds· own 28Q1

IDAHTD6 pl, 81 yds· own 19Q1

NEVFG15 pl, 49 yds· own 25Q2

IDAHPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q2

NEVPUNT5 pl, 20 yds· own 20Q2

IDAHFG12 pl, 77 yds· own 14Q2

NEVPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 35Q3

IDAHTD5 pl, 59 yds· own 41Q3

NEVDOWNS10 pl, 67 yds· own 25Q3

IDAHFG11 pl, 75 yds· own 8Q3

NEVINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q3

IDAHFG7 pl, 23 yds· opp 49Q3

NEVDOWNS4 pl, 7 yds· own 19Q4

IDAHFG8 pl, 14 yds· opp 26Q4

NEVFUM5 pl, 19 yds· own 25Q4

IDAHEND6 pl, 27 yds· opp 44Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 7:12IDAHRicardo Chavez 29 Yd Field Goal 33–6
• Q4 12:35IDAHRicardo Chavez 43 Yd Field Goal 30–6
• Q3 1:06IDAHRicardo Chavez 34 Yd Field Goal 27–6
• Q3 11:53IDAHAlex Moore 15 Yd pass from Gevani McCoy (Ricardo Chavez Kick)24–6
• Q2 0:03IDAHRicardo Chavez 26 Yd Field Goal 17–6
• Q2 9:36NEVBrandon Talton 44 Yd Field Goal 14–6
• Q1 0:01IDAHNick Romano 15 Yd Run (Ricardo Chavez Kick)14–3
• Q1 11:40NEVBrandon Talton 29 Yd Field Goal 7–3
• Q1 14:47IDAHTuron Ivy Jr. 75 Yd pass from Gevani McCoy (Ricardo Chavez Kick)7–0

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

The matchup, in context

series history + adjusted profiles

The series16 meetings since 1924

Nevada leads 10–6 · 13% have been one-possession games

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →