Hawai'i vs. Vanderbilt: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
HAWTeam statsVAN
- Q4 4:49HAWDalen Morris 1 Yd Run (Matthew Shipley Kick)28–35
- Q4 11:20HAWPofele Ashlock 3 Yd pass from Brayden Schager (Matthew Shipley Kick)21–35
- Q4 14:48VANLondon Humphreys 32 Yd pass from AJ Swann (Jacob Borcila Kick)14–35
- Q3 9:32VANWill Sheppard 1 Yd pass from AJ Swann (Jacob Borcila Kick)14–28
- Q2 13:03HAWSteven McBride 45 Yd pass from Brayden Schager (Matthew Shipley Kick)14–21
- Q2 14:56VANWill Sheppard 7 Yd pass from AJ Swann (Jacob Borcila Kick)7–21
- Q1 7:00VANJayden McGowan 97 Yd Kickoff Return (AJ Swann Pass to Quincy Skinner Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)7–14
- Q1 7:13HAWSteven McBride 9 Yd pass from Brayden Schager (Matthew Shipley Kick)7–6
- Q1 11:26VANPatrick Smith 21 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)0–6
How the model called it
- PassBrayden Schager 27/35, 351 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- RushLandon Sims 9 CAR, 38 YDS
- RecPofele Ashlock 7 REC, 127 YDS, 1 TD
- PassAJ Swann 19/30, 258 YDS, 3 TD
- RushPatrick Smith 7 CAR, 30 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJayden McGowan 6 REC, 72 YDS
FAQ
What was the final score of Hawai'i vs. Vanderbilt?
Hawai'i 28, Vanderbilt 35.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (VAN) was correct.
| HAW | VAN | |
|---|---|---|
| 391 | Total yards | 297 |
| 351 | Passing yards | 258 |
| 40 | Rushing yards | 39 |
| 19 | First downs | 17 |
| 3-11 | 3rd down | 5-12 |
| 3-4 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 27/35 | Comp/Att | 19/30 |
| 10.0 | Yards per pass | 8.6 |
| 1.6 | Yards per rush | 1.5 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-59 | Penalties | 8-72 |
| 31:22 | Possession | 28:38 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:49HAWDalen Morris 1 Yd Run (Matthew Shipley Kick)28–35
- Q4 11:20HAWPofele Ashlock 3 Yd pass from Brayden Schager (Matthew Shipley Kick)21–35
- Q4 14:48VANLondon Humphreys 32 Yd pass from AJ Swann (Jacob Borcila Kick)14–35
- Q3 9:32VANWill Sheppard 1 Yd pass from AJ Swann (Jacob Borcila Kick)14–28
- Q2 13:03HAWSteven McBride 45 Yd pass from Brayden Schager (Matthew Shipley Kick)14–21
- Q2 14:56VANWill Sheppard 7 Yd pass from AJ Swann (Jacob Borcila Kick)7–21
- Q1 7:00VANJayden McGowan 97 Yd Kickoff Return (AJ Swann Pass to Quincy Skinner Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)7–14
- Q1 7:13HAWSteven McBride 9 Yd pass from Brayden Schager (Matthew Shipley Kick)7–6
- Q1 11:26VANPatrick Smith 21 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)0–6
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (VAN Elo 1322, HAW Elo 1246 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects VAN -5.4 (65% to win) — 12.1 points clear of HAW's market line of -17.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| HAW | VAN | |
|---|---|---|
| -18.6 (#121) | CORE overall | -17.1 (#117) |
| -8 / +10 | offense / defense | -10 / +7 |
| 1.78 | points / drive | 1.56 |
| 3.19 | allowed / drive | 2.93 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| +16 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →