Delaware vs. Towson: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Delaware0-1

▸0051

Towson0-1

0013

Final

Johnny Unitas StadiumConference game

	1	2	3	4	T
DEL	28	10	10	3	51
TOWS	0	0	3	10	13

DELTeam statsTOWS

619Total yards326

386Pass265

233Rush61

28First downs19

8-113rd down3-11

1Turnovers2

38:26Possession21:34

Scoring plays

• Q4 2:13DELNate Reed 29 Yd Field Goal 51–13
• Q4 7:27TOWSZay Perkins 11 Yd pass from Nathan Kent (Keegan Vaughan Kick)48–13
• Q4 13:09TOWSKeegan Vaughan 34 Yd Field Goal 48–6
• Q3 1:39DELNate Reed 23 Yd Field Goal 48–3
• Q3 6:10TOWSKeegan Vaughan 31 Yd Field Goal 45–3
• Q3 9:36DELMarcus Yarns 5 Yd Run (Nate Reed Kick)45–0
• Q2 0:58DELNate Reed 29 Yd Field Goal 38–0
• Q2 12:04DELBraden Brose 12 Yd pass from Zach Marker (Nate Reed Kick)35–0
• Q1 0:32DELMarcus Yarns 5 Yd Run (Jourdan Townsend Pass to Joshua Youngblood for Two-Point Conversion)28–0
• Q1 3:54DELMarcus Yarns 3 Yd Run (Nate Reed PAT failed)20–0
• Q1 9:36DELMarcus Yarns 8 Yd Run (Nate Reed Kick)14–0
• Q1 14:47DELMarcus Yarns 75 Yd pass from Zach Marker (Nate Reed Kick)7–0

How the model called it

Market line

DEL −9.5

Against the number

DEL covered

line DEL −9.5

What the numbers say

• TOWS played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and DEL did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.2 vs 3rd & 5.1

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

TOWS 100%50%DEL 100%

Kickoff145 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

TOWS (top)DEL (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: TOWS 0%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

DEL −9.5

Closing total

52.5

Model line

—

Actual result

DEL 51 – 13 TOWS

Leaders

Delaware

• PassZach Marker 16/18, 307 YDS, 2 TD
• RushMarcus Yarns 13 CAR, 63 YDS, 4 TD
• RecMarcus Yarns 4 REC, 105 YDS, 1 TD

Towson

• PassNathan Kent 21/39, 265 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
• RushDevin Matthews 9 CAR, 46 YDS
• RecLukkas Londono 5 REC, 97 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

27.4sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

131

Points / snap

0.49

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

DEL up 45 entering the 4th quarter. Across 101 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

DEL went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WUSC vs Stanford56-10WRice vs Texas Southern59-7WOregon vs Hawai'i55-10WMissouri vs Murray State51-0WTexas vs Colorado State52-0

Fourth downs

12 calls

TOWS gave up 1.2 points to the model on fourth down.DEL 2/2 · TOWS 4/7 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Delaware vs. Towson?

Delaware 51, Towson 13.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

No — the model picked TOWS, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

DEL

TOWS

56%

Success rate

40%

0.95

EPA / pass

-0.11

0.28

EPA / rush

0.02

53%

Early-down success

47%

60%

Pass success

40%

54%

Rush success

40%

16%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

9%

14%

Stuffed rush rate

27%

41%

Pass rate

74%

5.1

Avg 3rd-down distance

7.2

DEL

5.1 yards to go on 3rd down

73 scrimmage snaps

TOWS

7.2 yards to go on 3rd down

58 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

DEL		TOWS
619	Total yards	326
386	Passing yards	265
233	Rushing yards	61
28	First downs	19
8-11	3rd down	3-11
0-0	4th down	0-3
22/26	Comp/Att	21/39
14.8	Yards per pass	6.8
5.2	Yards per rush	3.2
1	Turnovers	2
6-42	Penalties	3-29
38:26	Possession	21:34

Fourth downs

12 calls

DEL

2/2 with the model

nothing given up

TOWS

4/7 with the model

−1.2 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q3 12:32 TOWS go for it on 4th & 13 at DEL 31. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.72 points.

Every call, priced (12)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

DEL 9/12 scoring drives← own end zone →TOWS 3/10 scoring drives

DELTD1 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

TOWSPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 28Q1

DELTD7 pl, 93 yds· own 7Q1

TOWSINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 41Q1

DELTD10 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q1

DELTD6 pl, 27 yds· opp 27Q1

TOWSDOWNS5 pl, 27 yds· own 31Q1

DELTD4 pl, 58 yds· own 42Q2

TOWSPUNT7 pl, 26 yds· own 25Q2

DELFG16 pl, 80 yds· own 8Q2

TOWSPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q2

DELEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 28Q2

TOWSDOWNS8 pl, 39 yds· own 25Q3

DELTD5 pl, 64 yds· own 36Q3

TOWSFG9 pl, 72 yds· own 14Q3

DELFG8 pl, 62 yds· own 32Q3

TOWSFG8 pl, 59 yds· own 25Q3

DELFUM5 pl, 24 yds· own 25Q4

TOWSTD8 pl, 49 yds· opp 49Q4

DELFG10 pl, 63 yds· own 25Q4

TOWSDOWNS8 pl, 61 yds· own 28Q4

DELEND1 pl, -2 yds· own 11Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 2:13DELNate Reed 29 Yd Field Goal 51–13
• Q4 7:27TOWSZay Perkins 11 Yd pass from Nathan Kent (Keegan Vaughan Kick)48–13
• Q4 13:09TOWSKeegan Vaughan 34 Yd Field Goal 48–6
• Q3 1:39DELNate Reed 23 Yd Field Goal 48–3
• Q3 6:10TOWSKeegan Vaughan 31 Yd Field Goal 45–3
• Q3 9:36DELMarcus Yarns 5 Yd Run (Nate Reed Kick)45–0
• Q2 0:58DELNate Reed 29 Yd Field Goal 38–0
• Q2 12:04DELBraden Brose 12 Yd pass from Zach Marker (Nate Reed Kick)35–0
• Q1 0:32DELMarcus Yarns 5 Yd Run (Jourdan Townsend Pass to Joshua Youngblood for Two-Point Conversion)28–0
• Q1 3:54DELMarcus Yarns 3 Yd Run (Nate Reed PAT failed)20–0
• Q1 9:36DELMarcus Yarns 8 Yd Run (Nate Reed Kick)14–0
• Q1 14:47DELMarcus Yarns 75 Yd pass from Zach Marker (Nate Reed Kick)7–0

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →