Colorado State vs. Utah State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CSUTeam statsUSU
- Q4 4:58USUDavon Booth 48 Yd Run (Elliott Nimrod Kick)24–44
- Q4 8:55CSUKobe Johnson 10 Yd Run (Jordan Noyes Kick)24–37
- Q4 11:38USUMicah Davis 19 Yd pass from Cooper Legas (Elliott Nimrod PAT failed)17–37
- Q3 11:53USUJalen Royals 51 Yd pass from Cooper Legas (Elliott Nimrod Kick)17–31
- Q3 13:49USUTerrell Vaughn 76 Yd pass from Cooper Legas (Elliott Nimrod Kick)17–24
- Q2 3:50USUJalen Royals 24 Yd pass from Cooper Legas (Elliott Nimrod Kick)17–17
- Q2 6:10USUDavon Booth 22 Yd Run (Elliott Nimrod Kick)17–10
- Q1 0:20USUElliott Nimrod 43 Yd Field Goal 17–3
- Q1 9:34CSUVann Schield 22 Yd Run (Jordan Noyes Kick)17–0
- Q1 10:36CSUTory Horton 79 Yd Punt Return (Jordan Noyes Kick)10–0
- Q1 11:27CSUJordan Noyes 30 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- CSU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and USU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.7 vs 3rd & 6.2
- PassBrayden Fowler-Nicolosi 26/57, 225 YDS, 3 INT
- RushKobe Johnson 17 CAR, 56 YDS, 1 TD
- RecLouis Brown IV 6 REC, 54 YDS
- PassCooper Legas 19/29, 387 YDS, 4 TD, 2 INT
- RushDavon Booth 14 CAR, 141 YDS, 2 TD
- RecTerrell Vaughn 8 REC, 143 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSU up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,009 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 3:50USU +22%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Jalen Royals for 24 yds for a TD (Elliott Nimrod KICK)
- Q3 13:49USU +20%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 76 yds for a TD (Elliott Nimrod KICK)
- Q2 6:10USU +18%
Davon Booth run for 22 yds for a TD (Elliott Nimrod KICK)
- Q1 10:36CSU +18%
Tory Horton 79 Yd Punt Return (Jordan Noyes Kick)
- Q1 9:34CSU +16%
Vann Schield run for 22 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)
- Q3 11:53USU +12%
Cooper Legas pass complete to Jalen Royals for 51 yds for a TD (Elliott Nimrod KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Colorado State vs. Utah State?
Colorado State 24, Utah State 44.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (USU) was correct.
| CSU | USU | |
|---|---|---|
| 320 | Total yards | 639 |
| 225 | Passing yards | 387 |
| 95 | Rushing yards | 252 |
| 20 | First downs | 28 |
| 6-19 | 3rd down | 8-17 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 26/57 | Comp/Att | 19/29 |
| 3.9 | Yards per pass | 13.3 |
| 3.7 | Yards per rush | 4.6 |
| 5 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 8-55 | Penalties | 7-70 |
| 27:10 | Possession | 32:50 |
Costliest call
Q3 5:57 USU punt on 4th & 2 at CSU 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.38 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:58USUDavon Booth 48 Yd Run (Elliott Nimrod Kick)24–44
- Q4 8:55CSUKobe Johnson 10 Yd Run (Jordan Noyes Kick)24–37
- Q4 11:38USUMicah Davis 19 Yd pass from Cooper Legas (Elliott Nimrod PAT failed)17–37
- Q3 11:53USUJalen Royals 51 Yd pass from Cooper Legas (Elliott Nimrod Kick)17–31
- Q3 13:49USUTerrell Vaughn 76 Yd pass from Cooper Legas (Elliott Nimrod Kick)17–24
- Q2 3:50USUJalen Royals 24 Yd pass from Cooper Legas (Elliott Nimrod Kick)17–17
- Q2 6:10USUDavon Booth 22 Yd Run (Elliott Nimrod Kick)17–10
- Q1 0:20USUElliott Nimrod 43 Yd Field Goal 17–3
- Q1 9:34CSUVann Schield 22 Yd Run (Jordan Noyes Kick)17–0
- Q1 10:36CSUTory Horton 79 Yd Punt Return (Jordan Noyes Kick)10–0
- Q1 11:27CSUJordan Noyes 30 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USU Elo 1376, CSU Elo 1299 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USU -5.5 (65% to win) — 8.5 points clear of USU's market line of +3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#39 of 117 in 2023 by biggest miss · #91 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds.
The 2023 upset archive →Colorado State leads 40–38–2 · 41% have been one-possession games
| CSU | USU | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.5 (#114) | CORE overall | -9.8 (#99) |
| -10 / +6 | offense / defense | -1 / +9 |
| 1.73 | points / drive | 2.01 |
| 2.28 | allowed / drive | 2.59 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| +10 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →