Eastern Michigan vs. Arizona State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
EMUTeam statsASU
- Q4 4:24EMUJesus Gomez 20 Yd Field Goal 30–21
- Q4 10:48ASUXazavian Valladay 44 Yd Run (Carter Brown Kick)27–21
- Q3 7:04EMUJesus Gomez 40 Yd Field Goal 27–14
- Q2 1:12EMUSamson Evans 3 Yd Run (Jesus Gomez Kick)24–14
- Q2 2:53ASUEmory Jones 3 Yd Run (Carter Brown Kick)17–14
- Q2 8:11EMUHassan Beydoun 6 Yd pass from Austin Smith (Jesus Gomez Kick)17–7
- Q2 14:54ASUAndre Johnson 3 Yd pass from Emory Jones (Carter Brown Kick)10–7
- Q1 3:18EMUJaylon Jackson 4 Yd Run (Jesus Gomez Kick)10–0
- Q1 11:04EMUJesus Gomez 27 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassTaylor Powell 10/14, 93 YDS, 1 INT
- RushSamson Evans 36 CAR, 258 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTanner Knue 3 REC, 53 YDS
- PassEmory Jones 20/32, 182 YDS, 1 TD
- RushXazavian Valladay 16 CAR, 127 YDS, 1 TD
- RecElijhah Badger 7 REC, 88 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsEMU up 13 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,180 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 4:26EMU +35%
J.Gomez 20 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-S.Bird, Holder-A.Heston
- Q4 10:55ASU +28%
X.Valladay rushed to EMC End Zone for 44 yards. X.Valladay for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 1:16EMU +24%
S.Evans rushed to ASU End Zone for 3 yards. S.Evans for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 2:59ASU +23%
E.Jones rushed to EMC End Zone for 3 yards. E.Jones for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 8:17EMU +22%
A.Smith pass complete to ASU 6. Catch made by H.Beydoun at ASU 6. Gain of 6 yards. H.Beydoun for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 15:00ASU +19%
E.Jones pass complete to EMC 3. Catch made by A.Johnson at EMC 3. Gain of 3 yards. A.Johnson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Eastern Michigan vs. Arizona State?
Eastern Michigan 30, Arizona State 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ASU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| EMU | ASU | |
|---|---|---|
| 458 | Total yards | 352 |
| 153 | Passing yards | 182 |
| 305 | Rushing yards | 170 |
| 25 | First downs | 18 |
| 11-15 | 3rd down | 4-9 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 14/22 | Comp/Att | 20/32 |
| 7.0 | Yards per pass | 5.7 |
| 6.0 | Yards per rush | 7.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-47 | Penalties | 9-84 |
| 34:43 | Possession | 25:17 |
Costliest call
Q4 4:26 EMU field goal on 4th & 2 at ASU 2. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.39 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:24EMUJesus Gomez 20 Yd Field Goal 30–21
- Q4 10:48ASUXazavian Valladay 44 Yd Run (Carter Brown Kick)27–21
- Q3 7:04EMUJesus Gomez 40 Yd Field Goal 27–14
- Q2 1:12EMUSamson Evans 3 Yd Run (Jesus Gomez Kick)24–14
- Q2 2:53ASUEmory Jones 3 Yd Run (Carter Brown Kick)17–14
- Q2 8:11EMUHassan Beydoun 6 Yd pass from Austin Smith (Jesus Gomez Kick)17–7
- Q2 14:54ASUAndre Johnson 3 Yd pass from Emory Jones (Carter Brown Kick)10–7
- Q1 3:18EMUJaylon Jackson 4 Yd Run (Jesus Gomez Kick)10–0
- Q1 11:04EMUJesus Gomez 27 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ASU Elo 1592, EMU Elo 1345 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ASU -12.3 (80% to win) — 8.2 points clear of EMU's market line of -20.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2022
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#26 of 108 in 2022 by biggest miss · #8 of 132 in 2022 by longest odds.
The 2022 upset archive →| EMU | ASU | |
|---|---|---|
| -5.1 (#84) | CORE overall | -2.9 (#75) |
| +3 / +8 | offense / defense | +3 / +6 |
| 2.48 | points / drive | 2.25 |
| 2.54 | allowed / drive | 3.09 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| +0 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →